The road to Super Rugby glory: who still has a shot at making the finals?
Super Rugby has reached its final month of regular season competition. It’s been one of the most even playing fields in recent years – only nine points separates 3rd from 14th on the table. Almost every team in the competition still has a chance at achieving Super Rugby glory in 2019, but some sides have a very tough road ahead of them.
Historically, it’s been exceptionally difficult for a team to win Super Rugby unless they’re playing at home in the finals. The top team from each conference, alongside the next best runner up, will be guaranteed home-semis in 2019. For now, however, very few teams are safe and simply making the knockout round will take a good run of results in the final month.
How is each team faring with four rounds to go?
Crusaders
Points: 49
Ranking: 1st
Games remaining: Blues (H), Chiefs (A), Rebels (H)
If one team has looked head and shoulders above the rest of the competition, it’s the Crusaders. The Crusaders have failed to record wins only three times this season – and two of those results have been draws. Mathematically, the Crusaders need seven points to guarantee their top spot on the ladder, but one win would likely see them through.
The only concern for the Cantabrians would be that their two draws have both come in the last three weeks, so they will want to reassert themselves as untouchable in the remaining rounds of the competition.
Predicted finish: 1st
Bulls
Points: 32
Ranking: 2nd
Games remaining: Brumbies (A), Blues (A), Highlanders (A), Lions (H)
The Bulls have one of the toughest remaining schedules of any team in the competition – courtesy of having only just started their Australasian tour. They may be top of the South African conference at present but they have three very good teams right behind them – all who have easier matches ahead of them. Also not in the Bulls’ favour is that they’ve performed very poorly against New Zealand sides this year (20-56 to the Chiefs and 13-45 to the Crusaders) – and they’ve got two more games coming up very shortly. The Bulls will have to buck their inconsistency if they plan on getting any further in this competition, but even a pair of wins in the upcoming weeks might not be enough to see them home.
Predicted finish: 9th
Brumbies
Points: 29
Ranking: 3rd
Games remaining: Bulls (H), Sunwolves (A), Waratahs (A), Reds (H)
While the Australian conference has been more competitive than in recent seasons, it’s hard to really say that any of their teams have actually performed especially well. The Brumbies have managed to earn wins over the Blues, Stormers, Lions and Chiefs this season – which puts them well ahead of the chasing pack in terms of victories over foreign opposition. While they haven’t quite reached the heights of their 54-17 success over the Chiefs in a long time, they’re certainly the best performing Australian side as a whole and have managed wins when it matters. Their path to the finals is one of the easiest in the competition and they would have to do very poorly to not book top spot in the Australian conference from here on in, even though there’s only a three-point buffer between them and the third placed Waratahs.
Predicted finish: 3rd
Hurricanes
Points: 40
Ranking: 4th
Games remaining: Sharks (A), Lions (A), Blues (H)
The Hurricanes may be in fourth place, but they’re the second-best performing team to date and only sit below the Bulls and the Brumbies courtesy of Super Rugby’s peculiar ranking system. They’re eight points ahead of their next closest rival, the Jaguares – who pulled off an upset win in Wellington on Friday night – and have one fewer game to play than most of the teams beneath them. They also have tough matches coming up against the steadily improving Sharks and Lions – who are both also playing for spots in the finals. The Hurricanes don’t have an excellent record in South Africa in recent years, losing three of their last four matches there. Chances are, they’ll need to notch at least one victory there this year and also bring it home against the Blues to secure a semi-final – but they’re dead-set certainties to make the knockout rounds, at this point.
Predicted finish: 4th
Jaguares
Points: 32
Ranking: 5th
Games remaining: Waratahs (A), Reds (A), Sharks (H), Sunwolves (H)
Last year, the Jaguares secured their first ever spot in the finals. It would be a surprise if they didn’t repeat that in 2019, given how well they’ve set themselves up. Three wins from their final four matches would see the Jaguares through to the quarter-finals – it’s a very doable equation for the Argentinians. The Waratahs have underperformed this year while the Reds are still very much a developing side. Tellingly, the Jaguares have never lost a match in Australia and there’s a good chance they could keep that streak alive given their opposition this year. Until last year, the Jaguares had a habit of losing games they were expected to win and sometimes winning games they were expected to lose. Providing that characteristic doesn’t rise from the ashes in the final rounds of 2019, the Jaguares should be on track for a second finals appearance in as many years.
Predicted finish: 2nd
Lions
Points: 30
Ranking: 6th
Games remaining: Sharks (A), Stormers (H), Hurricanes (H), Bulls (A)
Figuring out the remaining quarter-finalists basically comes down to who have the easier runs in, because only one win separates the Lions from the 12th placed Stormers. The biggest concern for the Lions will be that of their three remaining games they have against South African opposition, two are against sides that have already comfortably beaten them this season – and both matches were in Johannesburg. The Lions’ season could well come down to this weekend’s match against the Sharks in Durban. If they can bank a win there, they should be fine to pull out one more win and see themselves through to the playoffs – but question marks remain.
Predicted finish: 5th
Sharks
Points: 29
Ranking: 7th
Games remaining: Lions (H), Hurricanes (H), Jaguares (A), Stormers (A)
The Sharks have managed only two wins in Durban this year, so home advantage has really been anything but in 2019. Still, the Sharks will fancy their chances against both the Lions and the Hurricanes after dispatching the former with ease earlier in the season and netting a draw and a close loss against Kiwi opposition on their Australasian tour. The final two weeks could be very tense for Sharks supporters if they fail to earn wins in their home matches – away trips to two teams also likely to be fighting for finals spots will be very challenging indeed.
Predicted finish: 6th
Highlanders
Points: 29
Ranking: 8th
Games remaining: Stormers (A), Bulls (H), Waratahs (H)
New Zealand sides haven’t enjoyed the same dominance they have in previous seasons. For the past three years there have been four Kiwi teams in the finals. This year, there might only be two. Like many other sides, the Highlanders have gone through some serious peaks and troughs this year but look to finally be peaking at the right time. Is now going to be too late for the Southerners, however? Their final three games are all against teams with plenty to prove and they haven’t left themselves a huge buffer should they not bank wins in their final two home matches of the season. A finals spot is still within reach, but they may find in slipping out of their hands at the last second.
Predicted finish: 8th
Rebels
Points: 28
Ranking: 9th
Games remaining: Sunwolves (A), Waratahs (H), Crusaders (A), Chiefs (A)
The Rebels started the season so promisingly and looked to be Australia’s best shot at winning another title. The Genia/Cooper axis was functioning well and the backline seemed to be scoring tries at will, but that’s all dried up in recent times. After securing an early season win against the Highlanders, the Rebels have now failed to tip over any more teams from outside their conference, which is really what’s crippled their season. Given they’d likely need to knock over both the Crusaders and the Chiefs in the final two weeks of the season (and they’ll also have to secure a home win against the improving Waratahs), 2019 isn’t looking like the Rebels year.
Predicted finish: 10th
Waratahs
Points: 26
Ranking: 10th
Games remaining: Jaguares (H), Rebels (A), Brumbies (H), Highlanders (A)
Like the Rebels, the Waratahs have only managed to emerge victorious against one side not placed in the Australian conference. They also succumbed to the lowly Sunwolves in Sydney, which was a pretty telling omen for the rest of their season. In contrast, they’ve only lost one match to Australian sides in 2019, so two wins from four matches would be fairly consistent with how the Waratahs have performed throughout the rest of the year.
Predicted finish: 11th
Blues
Points: 26
Ranking: 11th
Games remaining: Crusaders (A), Bulls (H), Reds (A), Hurricanes (A)
It’s been a fairly typical year for the Blues. At one point they managed four wins in a row, which revitalised their chances of making the playoffs after a less than satisfactory start to the season. Since then, however, results have been poor. This weekend’s victory has given some fans a smidgeon of hope that perhaps there’s still a chance at making the quarter-finals. Inevitably, the Blues will painstakingly eliminate that hope in the weeks to come. Three away matches from four games does not make for pretty reading, especially when two of those games are against the table-topping Crusaders and Hurricanes.
Predicted finish: 12th
Stormers
Points: 26
Ranking: 12th
Games remaining: Highlanders (H), Lions (A), Sunwolves (H), Sharks (H)
It would be easy to forget about the Stormers, given they’re in 12th place, but when you factor in that they’re only three points shy of the top eight it’s easy to see that they still have a good shot at making 2019 a success. The Stormers also have a very hand run-in to the finals and three home games to play, which bodes well for a team that has only lost once in Cape Town this year. If the Stormers can maintain their performance at home, then they should manage to sneak in to the final spot on offer in this season’s quarterfinals.
Predicted finish: 7th
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
6 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
6 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
6 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
6 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
2 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
2 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to comments