LONG READ The Wallabies’ five crucial ‘what-if’ moments from the heartbreaking Ireland loss in Sydney

Wallabies fans, and probably the Wallabies themselves walked out of Allianz Stadium in Sydney with an all-too familiar feeling on Saturday night: deep frustration.

Of course, the scoreboard will show the Wallabies led at half-time, but didn’t at full-time, and that is the source of the ‘one that got away’ feeling. Once again, they’ve shown plenty of promise that they really can take it to the best teams in the international game, but only up until a point.

But this was a very different start to the 2026 international season, compared to how they finished in 2025. There was a significant improvement in their attacking shape and punch, and they showed rugby instinct that had dropped off by the end of last year.

There were plenty of positives to take from the game, and the Wallabies should carry plenty of confidence in the France game in Brisbane this weekend coming.

But were also just a few too many what-if moments that will continue to sting and should provide emotional ammo in the days to come…

What if Carter Gordon kicks one or both early conversions?

Goal-kicking has long been an Achilles heel of this Wallabies playing group, and there’s a cruel irony that despite playing one of their better games of the last 12 months such a deep-seated issue would return to the surface.

Carter Gordon may well have taken a few kicks at goal in the warm-up on Saturday night but he certainly didn’t spend more than ten minutes kicking from tee like Ryan Lonergan did, and with Ben Donaldson having his fair share of shots as well, before the team moved into other aspects of their pre-game.

I raise this only as background to the surprise expressed in the press box when Gordon stepped up to take the first conversion of the match. After he pulled the first kick left, the question was asked, “did anyone see Gordon having a kick in the warm-up?” No one could confidently say he did.

When he pulled a second kick left ten minutes later, memories of Gordon’s past goal-kicking troubles for the Wallabies came flooding back. And it was a huge shame, because when Gordon did resume the goal-kicking for the Queensland Reds over the last three games this year, he kicked very well – 12 from 14, for 86%

He did convert the Wallabies three final tries, but the damage had been done – and will remain with a 33-31 scoreline for a good while yet.

Can we imagine if even just one of those first two kicks goes over? It’s reasonable to assume Gordon has been doing just that since Saturday night.

What if Allan Ala’alatoa didn’t bite in so hard in the 19th minute

Ireland’s first of many chances to regain the lead came in the 19th minute, where after peppering the Wallabies line with pick and drives, the visitors won an offside penalty, from which Dan Sheehan lined up for a tap move.

Australian hooker Josh Nasser lined up on his counterpart and had Angus Bell on his outside for support.

But at the moment Sheehan taps and moves forward, Allan Ala’alatoa, on Nasser’s left and covering the opposite ruck pillar James Ryan, only has eyes for Sheehan as well. So he’s no longer covering Ryan, but he also never sees Josh van der Flier as the second carrying option, who Sheehan finds with a crafty no-look pass across Ryan’s face.

Van der Flier is also running the perfect unders line, and charges straight through the gap Ala’alatoa left behind, and leaving Josh Canham with an impossible defensive task on the inside. Canham has been unfairly marked down in player ratings for missing this tackle, and Ala’alatoa wouldn’t have enjoyed the review this week.

A bit more trust on his outside defenders, and perhaps more volume from Canham, and maybe the Wallabies are able to absorb the contact with van der Flier and hold him up.

Instead, it was the first of five lead changes for the game.

What if Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii just took the contact?

Up 24-12 and very much in control of the first half, the Wallabies gained a short knock-on advantage from a contestable kick which bobbled around several bodies and at least one Irish hand. Len Ikitau took up a position forward of the contest to be ready for such chaos, and was allowed to play on with said advantage.

Australia kept pressing toward the Ireland 22 for another couple of phases, with Ben O’Keeffe advising the advantage was over. Another few phases later, a second-man play out the back found Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, and from a standing start, headed outside to engage and then bust through the tackles of Tadhg Furlong and Gary Ringrose, setting course for the far corner.

As he crossed the Irish 22 and drifted out, the covering run of Hugo Keenan came into view. A jink-goose step couldn’t shake the speed of Keenan, who made contact around Suaalii’s ankle around ten metres out.

But with Jock Campbell and Harry Wilson trailing to provide clean out, Suaalii from the ground instead tried to flip the ball up to Campbell, only for it to go forward with the momentum.

It was an incredible tackle from Keenan, a try-saver by very definition, but it was a poor decision from Suaalii, who really just needed to take the contact now only five metres short, recycle quick ball, and from which the Wallabies quite possibly still score.

And unfortunately, this was at least the second time the former schoolboy prodigy had coughed up ball in contact when a quick recycle was the better option.

What if that earlier lesson had been heeded? 29- or 31-12 almost certainly changes Ireland’s behaviour going into halftime, and the Wallabies might instead have enjoyed the half time lead they deserved to that point of the game.

What if Keenan missed that tackle?

And it’s a valid question, after covering the ground he did to reach Suaalii, that the size difference or Suaalii’s momentum could easily have bumped the full-back out of the contact, in which case, the Australian centre almost certainly runs the ball around behind the posts for the easy conversion, for that 31-12 scoreline.

Instead, Ireland lifted after Keenan’s last ditch heroics and were emboldened to play on after the halftime siren and break out into the Wallabies 22, from which Jamison Gibson-Park was on hand to take the Jack Conan offload and score next to the posts himself.

Of course, there’s another couple of little what-ifs buried in this: what if Harry Wilson’s basketball pass on the outside went straight to Max Jorgensen in space, instead of forcing the scrum? Or what if TMO Matteo Liperini agreed with so many Wallabies fans, who remain convinced the Conan pass was forward?

Ireland converted the try to make it 24-19 at the break, but it would all have been moot if Keenan couldn’t hold onto Suaalii’s ankles.

What if Ben Donaldson asked where the mark was first?

The Western Force fly-half has been one of the most consistent Australian players this season, and one of the best goal kickers in Super Rugby Pacific as well, so you couldn’t really argue when he wanted to take high-pressure shots at penalty goal on Saturday night.

In the back of his mind, he might even have sensed an opportunity to slay the demons from the match against Italy back in 2022, when his missed penalty attempt was the difference between the Wallabies winning and losing.

Sadly, Donaldson missed both shots, and if there’s one little lesson here, it’s that Donaldson and/or skipper Harry Wilson should probably have checked the mark was going to be for the first shot in the 72nd minute, after Dylan Pietsch was taken out of an aerial contest approaching the Ireland 22.

Expecting the mark was further infield the Australians pointed to the posts quickly, only for O’Keeffe to then walk to mark, which was at most half a metre in from touch. And evidently, there was some kind of alternate enquiry from the Wallabies decision-makers, because O’Keeffe could be heard saying, “Harry, you’ve already declared you’re taking the shot”.

And with so much attention paid to the mark now, Donaldson couldn’t employ some goal kicker dark arts, like finding that the most stable grass to sit the tee on is actually a metre closer to the posts.

Donaldson took the kick and pushed it too far wide. A few minutes later, the Wallabies found themselves back defending their own line, losing debutant Lachie Shaw to a Yellow Card, and Ireland scoring the equaliser through prop Tom Clarkson.

Knowing where that mark was before pointing to the posts could have been handy  and clearly would’ve brought a different decision, witnessed by the fact the Wallabies tried to change their mind when they discovered where it actually was.

All these micro moments just underline the notion that rugby really is a game of inches, and sometimes, it’s the top couple of inches in heads that can have the biggest impact on games.

If there’s an upside, it’s that at least the Wallabies do again this weekend and have 80 minutes in Brisbane to show how they’ve learnt their lesson.