Is this the most competitive season of Super Rugby we've ever had?
It’s one of the most hotly contested seasons of Super Rugby we’ve seen in years.
That’s been the general consensus regarding 2019’s iteration of the Southern Hemisphere’s premier club competition.
Pundits trying their hand at the various tipping competitions on offer will be able to tell you that it’s never been more difficult correctly picking the winners of matches – unless, of course, the Crusaders are playing.
If you’re not convinced, consider some of the less common occurrences we’ve already witnessed in this year:
- Perennial strugglers the Sunwolves notched up away wins against recent former champions the Chiefs and the Waratahs.
- Two Australian teams (in this instance, the Reds and the Brumbies) secured victories on South African soil over the same weekend for the first time since 2006.
- By week three of the competition, only two teams were undefeated. By week six of the competition, every team bar one had suffered two losses – which hasn’t happened since 2004.
It’s incredibly difficult to predict which teams are likely to be in pole position come finals season and week after week the picture doesn’t seem to be getting any clearer.
The Crusaders are the run away favourites to take out the New Zealand conference and likely the whole competition, but picking a conference winner is tough for both Australia and South Africa.
The Rebels started strongly in Australia but over the last two weekends have suffered two losses on the bounce. They also have a bye this week and a tough trip to Wellington coming up in a week’s time so they could be looking at four weeks without a win.
The Bulls have arguably the strongest side in South Africa and sit atop of their conference but they’re only one win ahead of the cellar-dwelling Stormers. They were also put to the sword at home by the Chiefs who, at that point in time, were yet to taste victory in 2019.
Statistics also point to this being the most competitive season in years.
At present, only nine points separate the bottom-of-the-log Sunwolves from the Blues – who would qualify for the finals if the regular season ended tomorrow. That’s the smallest margin between the eighth and 15th placed teams in round 10 of the competition that we’ve seen since Super Rugby expanded in 2011, with the average margin being 13 points.
If you take into consideration that there were 18 teams for two years, this year’s small gap between being eligible for the finals and taking home the wooden spoon is even more impressive.
You might argue that the ladder only looks truncated because the Sunwolves are finally winning a few games.
Even if you ignore the bottom placed team from the last few seasons, it’s clear that 2019 is more competitive than prior years.
At present, only three points separates the Blues from the 14th placed Chiefs. That’s six points fewer than the average margin from the last nine years.
2019’s parity is visible even when looking at the full table.
The Crusaders, who are comfortably leading the competition, have 34 points. This puts them 23 clear of the Sunwolves. Only once in the last nine years has there been a smaller margin between first and 15th place, which was back in 2014.
It’s excellent that the Sunwolves are no longer showing up on matchday just to receive a participation award – even if they are going to be culled after 2020. Having a weak team in the competition isn’t the end of the world, however, as long as there is good competition amongst the top teams.
Perhaps, then, the most telling stat is that only 10 points separates the second placed Hurricanes from the 14th placed Chiefs. Since 2011, the average margin between those two placings has been more considerable, at 19 points.
Given that the Chiefs’ next opponent is the Hurricanes, if the Waikato-based team can pull off two wins in the next two weeks, they could suddenly jump from also-rans to serious challengers for a home semi-final.
Likewise, the Stormers and South Bulls will face off this weekend in Cape Town. The Stormers may be last in the South African conference right now, but a win on Saturday could actually see them jump ahead of the conference leading Bulls.
It’s been a very competitive season in Super Rugby to date – that’s easy enough to tell if you just sit down and watch a game. What statistics show us, however, is that this is possibly the single most balanced tournament we’ve seen in the Southern Hemisphere in a long time. Good luck trying to pick a winner every week – you’re going to need it.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
6 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
6 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
6 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
6 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
2 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to comments