Select Edition

Northern Northern
Southern Southern
Global Global
NZ NZ

Is this the most competitive season of Super Rugby we've ever had?

By Tom Vinicombe
Photos / Getty Images

It’s one of the most hotly contested seasons of Super Rugby we’ve seen in years.

That’s been the general consensus regarding 2019’s iteration of the Southern Hemisphere’s premier club competition.

ADVERTISEMENT

Pundits trying their hand at the various tipping competitions on offer will be able to tell you that it’s never been more difficult correctly picking the winners of matches – unless, of course, the Crusaders are playing.

If you’re not convinced, consider some of the less common occurrences we’ve already witnessed in this year:

  • Perennial strugglers the Sunwolves notched up away wins against recent former champions the Chiefs and the Waratahs.
  • Two Australian teams (in this instance, the Reds and the Brumbies) secured victories on South African soil over the same weekend for the first time since 2006.
  • By week three of the competition, only two teams were undefeated. By week six of the competition, every team bar one had suffered two losses – which hasn’t happened since 2004.

It’s incredibly difficult to predict which teams are likely to be in pole position come finals season and week after week the picture doesn’t seem to be getting any clearer.

The Crusaders are the run away favourites to take out the New Zealand conference and likely the whole competition, but picking a conference winner is tough for both Australia and South Africa.

The Rebels started strongly in Australia but over the last two weekends have suffered two losses on the bounce. They also have a bye this week and a tough trip to Wellington coming up in a week’s time so they could be looking at four weeks without a win.

The Bulls have arguably the strongest side in South Africa and sit atop of their conference but they’re only one win ahead of the cellar-dwelling Stormers. They were also put to the sword at home by the Chiefs who, at that point in time, were yet to taste victory in 2019.

Statistics also point to this being the most competitive season in years.

At present, only nine points separate the bottom-of-the-log Sunwolves from the Blues – who would qualify for the finals if the regular season ended tomorrow. That’s the smallest margin between the eighth and 15th placed teams in round 10 of the competition that we’ve seen since Super Rugby expanded in 2011, with the average margin being 13 points.

ADVERTISEMENT

If you take into consideration that there were 18 teams for two years, this year’s small gap between being eligible for the finals and taking home the wooden spoon is even more impressive.

You might argue that the ladder only looks truncated because the Sunwolves are finally winning a few games.

Even if you ignore the bottom placed team from the last few seasons, it’s clear that 2019 is more competitive than prior years.

At present, only three points separates the Blues from the 14th placed Chiefs. That’s six points fewer than the average margin from the last nine years.

ADVERTISEMENT

2019’s parity is visible even when looking at the full table.

The Crusaders, who are comfortably leading the competition, have 34 points. This puts them 23 clear of the Sunwolves. Only once in the last nine years has there been a smaller margin between first and 15th place, which was back in 2014.

It’s excellent that the Sunwolves are no longer showing up on matchday just to receive a participation award – even if they are going to be culled after 2020. Having a weak team in the competition isn’t the end of the world, however, as long as there is good competition amongst the top teams.

Perhaps, then, the most telling stat is that only 10 points separates the second placed Hurricanes from the 14th placed Chiefs. Since 2011, the average margin between those two placings has been more considerable, at 19 points.

Given that the Chiefs’ next opponent is the Hurricanes, if the Waikato-based team can pull off two wins in the next two weeks, they could suddenly jump from also-rans to serious challengers for a home semi-final.

Likewise, the Stormers and South Bulls will face off this weekend in Cape Town. The Stormers may be last in the South African conference right now, but a win on Saturday could actually see them jump ahead of the conference leading Bulls.

It’s been a very competitive season in Super Rugby to date – that’s easy enough to tell if you just sit down and watch a game. What statistics show us, however, is that this is possibly the single most balanced tournament we’ve seen in the Southern Hemisphere in a long time. Good luck trying to pick a winner every week – you’re going to need it.

ADVERTISEMENT

Join free

Aotearoa Rugby Podcast | Episode 6

Sam Warburton | The Big Jim Show | Full Episode

Japan Rugby League One | Sungoliath v Eagles | Full Match Replay

Japan Rugby League One | Spears v Wild Knights | Full Match Replay

Boks Office | Episode 10 | Six Nations Final Round Review

Aotearoa Rugby Podcast | How can New Zealand rugby beat this Ireland team

Beyond 80 | Episode 5

Rugby Europe Men's Championship Final | Georgia v Portugal | Full Match Replay

Trending on RugbyPass

Comments

Join free and tell us what you really think!

Sign up for free
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest Features

Comments on RugbyPass

A
Adrian 27 minutes ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

6 Go to comments
T
Trevor 3 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

21 Go to comments
B
Bull Shark 7 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

Of the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.

29 Go to comments
TRENDING
TRENDING England No8 Sarah Beckett banned after leg-breaking croc roll tackle England No8 Sarah Beckett banned after leg-breaking croc roll tackle
Search