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Who's on the plane? The last Lions squad prediction before Warren Gatland finally announces the real one
Sometime in the next 24 hours Warren Gatland will name 37 players who will make up his British & Irish Lions squad to tour New Zealand in June and July. Here are Lee Calvert’s predictions as to what those names will be*.
Props
The Six Nations was dominated by three packs: England, Ireland and France. Unless the Lions eligibility rules have changed significantly, the French lads are ruled out, so expect the props to be mainly hailing from the other two. Mako Vunipola is a shoo-in at loosehead, as is Tadgh Furlong on the other side. After that, the picture becomes less clear. The choices are many: England’s Joe Marler and Dan Cole, Ireland’s Jack McGrath, Scotland’s WP Nel (if fit) and Wales’s Rob Evans and Samson Lee all have a shout. Word on the street is that Gatland has been impressed by young England tyro Kyle Sinckler’s pace and impact in his fledgling career.
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On the Plane: Mako Vunipola, Tadgh Furlong, Jack McGrath, Rob Evans, Dan Cole, Kyle Sinckler.
Hookers
Fairly easy picks here, with the likely shock (if you can call it that) being that the England captain Dylan Hartley will miss out. Hartley keeps his England place because he’s captain, not because he’s the best hooker – that title is clearly Jamie George’s. Ken Owens had a huge Six Nations for Wales, Rory Best will bring experience and Scotland’s hookers are rubbish.
On the plane: Ken Owens, Jamie George, Rory Best
Locks
Bringing four national teams together means added quality and this is most evident in the second row. England players alone could arguably take all the tour spots and very few could make an argument against it on form alone. But Gatland loves Alun Wyn Jones in a very real way because of his talent and experience and there is no conceivable situation where he does not tour.
But the list of names and their form and class is dizzying and some seriously good players will be left at home: Maro Itoje, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, George Kruis, Iain Henderson, Donnacha Ryan, Devin Toner, Alun Wyn Jones, Jonny Gray are all worthy. That’s ten names yet only five will go on tour. Gatland will need the perfect mix of grunt, power, dynamism and savvy to match the towering All Black engine room, for this reason, the mix will lean towards more mobile, all-rounder locks.
On the Plane: Maro Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, Joe Launchbury, George Kruis, Iain Henderson
Back Row
Another area where Gatland will have spent many hours deciding which top player to leave out. The back row will be based around two definite starters: Sam Warburton, who is odds-on to be captain, and Billy Vinupola, the wrecking ball carrier. Beyond those two there are again a litany of quality names to chew over: Scotland’s judo hand-off merchant Hamish Watson, Ireland’s mouthy disrupter Peter O’Mahoney, powersmash runner CJ Stander, wise-headed Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien. England’s unsung hero Chris Robshaw, big lump James Haskell, Wales’ talented breakaway Justin Tipuric and the simply outstanding Taulupe Faletau.
Ultimately it will be down to the balance Gatland is looking for, and he will want mix of power, craft and impact off the bench. Sadly this means that Chris Robshaw will miss out again, just as he did in 2013.
On the plane: Sam Warburton, Billy Vunipola, Peter O’Mahoney, CJ Stander, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau, Sean O’Brien
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Scrum Half
Easiest selection area of the lot for Gatland, with the two front runners Conor Murray and Rhys Webb miles ahead of those next off the rank. Only question is who the third name will be and most money is on Ben Youngs or Greig Laidlaw. The latter would be a good shout as midweek captain.
On the plane: Conor Murray, Rhys Webb, Greig Laidlaw
Outside Half
Again, Jonny Sexton and Owen Farrell pick themselves. After that it comes down to whether Warren takes a risk with someone like Finn Russell or George Ford, or sticks with what he knows in Dan Biggar. Knowing the Kiwi coach, he will not like the defensive frailties and unpredictability of either Russell of Ford.
On the plane: Jonny Sexton, Owen Farrell, Dan Biggar
Centres
Midfield is perhaps where the Lions options are weakest. There have been some flashes of class from the options available, but no one has been consistently outstanding either in terms of form or experience. Ireland’s Robbie Henshaw is a cert, as is England’s Jonathan Joseph, after that it is all a little muddy and not helped by a number of Scottish centres being injured and the talented Gary Ringrose of Ireland not convincing entirely at this level so far. However, the principles of Warrenball dictate that Gatland loves big lads, which may explain some of the whispers up here that England’s RL convert Ben Te’o is a name under serious consideration.
On the plane: Robbie Henshaw, Jonathan Joseph, Ben Te’o, Gary Ringrose
Wings and Fullbacks
Standout performers on the wing and at fullback in the Six Nations were thin on the ground. George North was good when he was in the game, plus his record and Warren’s previous relationship with him means he is nailed on. Elliot Daly was outstanding for England and can handily also cover centre; Liam Williams was similar in form for Wales and can also play fifteen and Stuart Hogg won the player of the tourmanent at fullback for Scotland. England’s Anthony Watson and Jack Nowell are in with a shout as is Scotland’s Tommy Seymour, who was in red hot form up to Christmas but has tailed off a bit since.
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The big question is, will Gatland take Leigh Halfpenny? The France-based Wales fullback is a perennial favourite of the coach, but his form has been wretched to middling for club and country with even his trusted dead-eyed boot going astray off the tee more than usual. Is he a better bet than either Watson, Seymour or Nowell at this stage? Many may not think so, but I reckon Gatland will stick with him again.
On the plane: George North, Elliot Daly, Liam Williams, Stuart Hogg, Leigh Halfpenny.
* This is my best guess at what we think Gatland will do, not necessarily an endorsement of these choices. Be sure to pop back after the announcement to point and laugh at the folly of my soothsaying.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Lets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
10 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
10 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
34 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
34 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to comments