Make or break: How many new faces will make the All Blacks end-of-year squad?
The All Blacks squad for the 2018 end-of-year tour is set to be announced at 1pm Monday NZT, and with up to 51 players to be used on their tour to Asia and Europe, fans can anticipate a huge influx of raw talent to don the black jersey at some stage throughout October and November.
Steve Hansen will take a core squad of 32 players with him for the duration of their travels, but with back-to-back games in Japan against the Wallabies and Brave Blossoms, followed by consecutive juggernaut battles against England and Ireland, an alternative approach to squad selection has been taken this time round.
All 32 core players will head to Japan to face Australia in Yokohama on October 27th, but in a bid to keep his frontline players fresh for the tests in London and Dublin, a further 19 players will be shipped in from New Zealand for the clash against Japan in Tokyo on November 3rd .
That will allow 22 of the core squad to jet off to Europe a week early to prepare for the matches against England and Ireland.
From a squad prediction standpoint, it makes life particularly difficult.
Not only will the question be asked of who the 32 core players will be, but also who will the additional 19 players be for the Japan test?
To establish that core squad, here is my pick for the 32 frontline players that will head to Japan for the third Bledisloe.
Alex McLeod’s predicted 32-man All Blacks squad northern hemisphere tour:
Owen Franks, Joe Moody, Tim Perry, Karl Tu’inukuafe, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Dane Coles, Nathan Harris, Codie Taylor, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Shannon Frizell, Dillon Hunt, Kieran Read (c), Ardie Savea, Liam Squire, Luke Whitelock, TJ Perenara, Aaron Smith, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Beauden Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo’unga, Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, Anton Lienert-Brown, Sonny Bill Williams, Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith.
The best way to go about answering that second question would not be to try and depict which is the most formidable side the All Blacks could muster and pick the individuals that would travel to Europe early, but rather acknowledge how many players from each position would depart the Japan-based camp after the Wallabies test.
Given that 22 players will head to London before the Japan clash, it should be most of the match-day squad that Steve Hansen anticipates on selecting for the England and Ireland tests that will jet off early.
Taking into account the relative lack of depth and experience at first-five in the squad, it seems likely that only one playmaker – Beauden Barrett – will travel to the British capital to allow his understudies – Richie Mo’unga and Damian McKenzie – to further develop their test match credentials in more comfortable surroundings.
Therefore, there should be four props (two loosehead, two tighthead), two hookers, three locks, four loose forwards, two halfbacks, one first five, three midfielders and three outside backs who depart the camp a week early.
This positional makeup of players who will leave early forms a rough blueprint of how many players from each position will be brought in from New Zealand to provide cover for the clash in Tokyo.
So, who will those 19 players be?
A substantial opening will form for fringe players in the prop department to prove their worth.
Expect Angus Ta’avao to receive another call-up in the wake of his shock debut against Argentina a few weeks ago.
He should be joined by whoever is omitted from the core squad out of Nepo Laulala and Tim Perry, while Jeff Toomaga-Allen can expect a re-call after failing to take to the field despite being named for the French series.
There should be enough room among the extra 19 players to include a bolter within the props, and that title could belong to any one of Michael Ala’alatoa, Daniel Lienert-Brown, or Tyrel Lomax.
All three have proven themselves to be players of great promise, with the former two impressing at Super Rugby level for numerous seasons now.
Kane Hames and Atu Moli would have been considered for call-ups if it were not for long-term concussion and leg injuries, respectively.
A duo of hookers could be called up to replace the pair of rakes – most likely Dane Coles and Codie Taylor – who will probably fly to London early.
Liam Coltman is the leading candidate to fill one of the voids, while it will be interesting to see who the selectors pick out of Asafo Aumua and Ricky Riccitelli.
Both have plenty to offer, which has been recognised in the form of two non-test appearances for Aumua and several training squad call ups for Riccitelli, so it will have been a real arm wrestle of a debate as to who to include.
If all three locks leave early, expect an overhaul in the second row for the Japan match. Jackson Hemopo could get a run there, but that will not stop Patrick Tuipulotu and Luke Romano receiving promotions back into the side.
Another big influx could ensue in the loose forwards.
There could be as many as three new faces coming into the side considering the potential number of departures in the position, and it is likely each player would come in to fill each specific position within the loose forward role.
One would expect Vaea Fifita to be called in to cover blindside, while Akira Ioane – should he miss out on a spot in the core squad – would be almost guaranteed the covering No. 8 position.
James Lentjes could be the best left standing in New Zealand to help at openside flanker, though it seems Dalton Papali’i has been earmarked as a future All Black following his energetic displays for a revitalised Auckland outfit this year.
Bryn Hall is reportedly the All Blacks’ next port of call at halfback should any one of Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara or Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi go down, so the Crusaders and Harbour man can expect a first-time call-up.
He may be joined by one of either Brad Weber or Mitchell Drummond, both of whom will be looking to add to their one match each in All Blacks colours.
In the midfield, Ngani Laumape will be a shoo-in to earn a re-call if he misses out on the core 32.
With all the hype that surrounded his breakout Super Rugby campaign, Laumape’s Manawatu teammate Rob Thompson must not be too far off from All Blacks selection, so an appearance from the 27-year-old would be unsurprising.
The sparkling form of Matt Faddes for Otago has generated intrigue around the 26-year-old utility back that has not been seen since his debut season with the Highlanders in 2016, so his inclusion among the 19 replacements would be warranted.
Finally, in the outside backs, there are an array of players that could slot into the All Blacks set-up with ease, but leading the race for selection is George Bridge and Solomon Alaimalo.
Both men have been sublime in 2018, and should oust the likes of Ben Lam and Will Jordan, despite the brilliance shown by those two domestically.
Alex McLeod’s predicted 19-man cover squad for Japan test:
Tyrel Lomax, Nepo Laulala, Angus Ta’avao, Jeff Toomaga-Allen, Liam Coltman, Ricky Riccitelli, Jackson Hemopo, Luke Romano, Patrick Tuipulotu, Vaea Fifita, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papali’i, Bryn Hall, Brad Weber, Matt Faddes, Ngani Laumape, Rob Thompson, Solomon Alaimalo, George Bridge.
All Blacks tour schedule (local times):
vs Australia at Nissan Stadium, Yokohama on October 27
vs Japan at Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo on November 3
vs England at Twickenham, London on November 10
vs Ireland at Aviva Stadium, Dublin on November 17
vs Italy at Stadio Olimpico, Rome on November 24
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
Exciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
11 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
3 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
3 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
3 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
11 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
26 Go to comments