Penalty machines: A timeline of England's failing discipline
Saturday’s Guinness Six Nations win for Wales was not lacking in talking points, but one of the main takeaways from the match was England’s discipline.
Eddie Jones’ side conceded 14 penalties, five more than their opponents, which is the third time in as many games this year that their penalty count has been in double figures (12 against Italy and 15 against Scotland). If ten penalties is the standard that teams seek to stay under, it is no surprise that England have lost two matches so far this Championship. But this is a growing trend for the side.
Jones’ tenure can be roughly split into three stages: the success of 2016-2017, his annus horribilis in 2018, and the resurgence in 2019 which saw England reach a World Cup final and win the Six Nations and Autumn Nations Cup in 2020.
When looking at England’s post-2018 form, there is a correlation between performances and penalty count. After a wayward year in 2018 where the team conceded an average of 10.4 penalties per match, that number was slashed the next year to 7.2 per match. Though 2020 brought success, England perhaps were not firing on all cylinders in the same way they were the year before, and that is reflected by their penalty count of nine per match. But that was still in single figures.
If anyone was starting to think that this year had shades of England’s stuttering 2018, the penalty count suggests it does. In fact at 13.6 penalties per match, the team are actually conceding over three penalties per match more than they did three years ago.
Of the six games England have lost since the beginning of 2019, they have conceded more penalties that their opponent on five of those occasions. The only game they lost in which their discipline was superior was against France in last year’s Six Nations, where their penalty count was five to France’s seven, which is fairly close.
So it’s a rather simple equation for England, concede fewer penalties and they are likely to win.
However, it does not necessarily mean they are likely to lose if they concede more penalties than their opponents, as they have won 37 per cent of their matches since 2019 by being the most ill-disciplined side. This is partly because the intensity they bring in defence can lead to penalties. Their 2019 Six Nations win over Ireland is proof of this. In one of England’s best performances of the Jones era, they doubled Ireland’s penalty count eight to four, but were still comfortable winners.
While it seems fairly obvious that the most well-behaved side is more likely to win, it is by no means a given that penalty counts predict outcomes for all teams. When looking at the weekend’s encounter, Wales have lost four of their last seven matches against England but have conceded 55 penalties to the opposition’s 70, with 17 of the 55 coming in one match alone. Moreover, in only one of those seven matches has their penalty count been worse than England’s.
Refereeing decisions aside, England have discipline problems. Their average penalty count in games has gone up by 6 in the last two years… pic.twitter.com/fAatgGTC51
— Sean Holley ????? (@_SeanHolley) March 1, 2021
Ireland, in contrast to England, have had poorer discipline than their opponents in only one of their ten losses since 2019 (against Japan).
The World Champions South Africa have only been more ill-disciplined than their opponents in four of their nine losses or draws since 2018 (dating back further as they have not played since 2019), while the All Blacks have been twice in their five losses or draws since 2019.
England’s ability to stay on the right side of the law therefore seems far more significant than it does to their opponents.
The oppressive defence under John Mitchell and playing close to ‘the edge’ may be a factor in this, as England have a ‘win a penalty or give a penalty’ approach. Consequently, penalties are more frequent and decisive in their matches. Therefore, depending on which side of the law they fall, they can either swarm their opponents or find themselves constantly being penalised and struggling to get a foothold in the game.
Maro Itoje embodies this mindset more than most. The lock gave away five penalties at the Principality Stadium, but another referee could have interpreted possibly three of them differently.
The 26-year-old was picked up for a deliberate knock-on, playing the ball on the floor and an offside, but all three were marginal. Had he not been punished, he would have suddenly put Wales under huge pressure and put England on the front foot.
Wayne Pivac on Maro Itoje and the amount of penalties he gave away in #WALvENG ? pic.twitter.com/Uf0Cn9aBGG
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) February 28, 2021
Jones cannot be faulted for firing his players up from the word go, but that has come at a price this Six Nations, and that price seems to be having a penalty count equal to the tackle count in the opening five minutes.
Ultimately, when the pressure is increased, a side’s fragility will be illuminated all the more. By the time the score was 24-24, the manner in which either side had accrued those points was irrelevant. What was important was the next 20 minutes and who could hold their nerve, and it is never wise to back a side with such a shaky disciplinary record in that situation.
When looking at Wales’ skipper Alun Wyn Jones, who is the personification of the phrase ‘heart in the oven, head in the fridge’, it was never in doubt. England’s discipline was so poor in the final stages that the ending was nothing short of a canter for Wayne Pivac’s side.
There are plenty of theories being posited as to why England are having a tough time with referees currently. One is the lack of playing time that their Saracens contingent have had, while another is the difference in officiating between the Gallagher Premiership and Test matches.
Either way, the penalty count is often a bellwether of England’s performance as a whole, and their discipline is currently on a downward spiral.
England Penalty Count
2021
14 versus Wales (9)- Lost
12 versus Italy (11)- Won
15 versus Scotland (6)- Lost
Average: 13.6 penalties per match
2020
9 versus France (16)- Won
7 versus Wales (17)- Won
13 versus Ireland (12)- Won
5 versus Georgia (12)- Won
13 versus Italy (13)- Won
10 versus Wales (6)- Won
13 versus Ireland (7)- Won
6 versus Scotland (8)- Won
5 versus France (7)- Lost
Average: 9 penalties per match
2019
10 versus South Africa (8)- Lost
6 versus New Zealand (11)- Won
8 versus Australia (5)- Won
8 versus Argentina (8)- Won
4 versus USA (11)- Won
10 versus Tonga (9)- Won
7 versus Italy (11)- Won
6 versus Ireland (5)- Won
12 versus Wales (11)- Lost
8 versus Wales (7)- Won
5 versus Scotland (6)- Draw
3 versus Italy (7)- Won
9 versus Wales (3)- Lost
4 versus France (6)- Won
8 versus Ireland (4)- Won
Average: 7.2 per match
2018
6 versus Australia (10)- Won
12 versus Japan (9)- Won
7 versus New Zealand (4)- Lost
11 versus South Africa (5)- Won
6 versus South Africa (14)- Won
13 versus South Africa (9)- Lost
12 versus South Africa (5)- Lost
11 versus Ireland (12)- Lost
15 versus France (11)- Lost
13 versus Scotland (7)- Lost
10 versus Wales (2)- Won
9 versus Italy (12)- Won
Average: 10.4 penalties per match
Comments on RugbyPass
I hope Leinster’s proud of themselves fielding a poor team. They should decide if they’re all in or not.
1 Go to commentsJordie is looking at 16 games maximum if Leinster reach both the URC and champions cup finals. Thats not guaranteed. Some of those home URC fixtures will be cakewalks as well for Leinster and there is not much doing during the 6 nations in Feb and March so he can probably get a decent rest then. He will have to really put in it for maybe 7 or 8 games max. It should be a good move for both.
13 Go to commentsThe game was a quarter final, not a semi final. Barrett will be here for 6 months, he is no one's replacement at 13. That mantle will most likely ultimately go to Jamie Osborne, though Garry Ringrose has at least 4 more years in him. The long term problem position (in the next 3 years) for Leinster is tighthead prop, though there are a couple of prospects at schools level.
24 Go to commentsSo much for all that hype surrounding the ‘revival’ of Aussie rugby. The Blues were without the likes of regular starters Perofeta, Sullivan, Christie etc… This was a capitulation of the highest order by Australia’s finest. Joe Schmidt definitely has his work cut out for him.
2 Go to commentsYes they can ignore Sotutu. Like Akira Ioane plays OK at Super level but gets lost in tests. Too many chances too many failures.
2 Go to commentsA wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
13 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
13 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
6 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
25 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
6 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
10 Go to comments