I'm fascinated to see if Six Nations 'running joke' repeats itself: Andy Goode

It still feels like a two-tier Six Nations this year but Ireland might struggle and the pressure is on Scotland to finish above them.

I know it’s become a running joke that every single year could be their time and they flatter to deceive, never having finished higher than third in the Six Nations era, but it does feel different with Glasgow having won 13 of 15 games this season.

There could be as many as nine or 10 of that Warriors team in the Scottish starting XV and they’ve seen off the likes of Toulouse, Clermont, Saracens, Munster, the Bulls, the Sharks and more in the past few months.

Such has been their form in the URC and Champions Cup, and with Jonny Gray, Tom Jordan, Rory Hutchinson, Blair Kinghorn and Finn Russell sprinkling extra stardust as well, it could spell big trouble for Gregor Townsend if they finish in the bottom half of the table for an 11th time in 13 seasons.

That record clearly isn’t anywhere near good enough and he has done some good work in his nearly nine years in charge but sport is a results-based business and it’ll definitely be time for a change if this campaign is another disappointing one.

This is a Scotland side that should at least be contenders for the title, and they have England and France at home this year so they really should be going into their Super Saturday trip to Dublin still in with a shout of lifting the trophy.

If Scotland do manage a top-half finish for just the third time since 2013, I think it’ll be Ireland who drop down into the bottom half, despite not having finished as low as that themselves since 2013.

The pressure isn’t on Andy Farrell in the same way at all but they have to travel to the Stade de France and Allianz Stadium and, with a few key players missing, they don’t have the same depth as the likes of France and England at the moment.

Add to that the fact they still haven’t fully settled on who’s the man to lead them forward at number 10 and probably need to give some of their younger players a bit more exposure than they have in recent years, and I think it could be a bit of a fall from grace for them.

I don’t think there’s any doubt in anyone’s minds that Wales and Italy are the occupants of the bottom tier of the Six Nations at the moment and it’ll come down to their clash at Principality Stadium in the final round to decide the wooden spoon.

There have been a few green shoots for the Welsh under Steve Tandy and with Matt Sherratt leading the attack, but they’re starting from a low base and a couple of wins over Japan are all they have to show for their efforts since the 2023 World Cup.

Similarly, there’s no doubt Italy have improved of late but the 2024 tournament, in which they managed two wins and a draw, is still a massive outlier and they’ve lost 54 of their last 60 outings in the competition.

Gonzalo Quesada has done a good job and they have some very talented players but until they’re getting wins consistently, it’s hard to make the case for them finishing outside the bottom two.

That leaves France and England battling it out for the title and I fully expect it to come down to their meeting in Paris on Super Saturday, with home advantage meaning the French would likely go into that one as favourites.

Any team that can leave Damian Penaud, Gael Fickou and Greg Alldritt out of their squad entirely, clearly has quite the array of other talent to call upon and I can certainly see Fabien Galthie’s thinking when it comes to the first two.

Penaud may be their all-time record try scorer but he hasn’t been in anywhere near his best form, while Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Theo Attissogbe have been pulling up trees and Gaël Dréan is looking like a world-beater at Toulon as well.

Alldritt is the big omission for me as he captained them in November, and the other options they have at No.8 probably don’t quite carry the load in the same way as him or have the same level of experience.

Les Bleus may be slightly more unpredictable this year but the level of talent and depth they have, with Antoine Dupont and Matthieu Jalibert pulling the strings and Romain Ntamack returning soon, means they’ll be there or thereabouts.

England have a tricky trip to Murrayfield and the sizeable task of seeing off Ireland at home before thinking about that mouth-watering match-up in Paris, but the expectation from inside and outside the camp is that they win the title this year.

That probably hasn’t been the case for Steve Borthwick in previous campaigns, as they sought to build performances and string wins together, and it does bring a different sort of pressure but it’s one they seem to be relishing thus far.

The likes of Immanuel Feyi-Waboso and Tommy Freeman have quickly become superstars, the likes of Guy Pepper, Joe Heyes and Alex Coles have all slotted in seamlessly and provided solidity, and it’s the bench that could prove a real point of difference again.

Henry Pollock was nowhere in international rugby terms a year ago but offers explosiveness and game-breaking ability in the final quarter, Tom Curry would start for any other team in the tournament and Marcus Smith will love a tired defence to run at.

It feels very odd to have it all kicking off on a Thursday night and almost like it’s catching some people by surprise, but it can’t be helped with the Winter Olympics and I think it’s more significant and a definite positive that there is now only one fallow week.

It’ll be tight at the top but England just have the edge for me and will get their hands on the trophy for the first time in six years, and make it a Grand Slam for the first time in a decade. But I would say that though wouldn’t I?