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Whose ship has sailed before the first All Blacks squad?
By Henry Lee
Super Rugby Pacific 2025 is down to the semi-final stage, with three New Zealand teams in the hunt for the title, alongside the Brumbies, who knocked off the Hurricanes last weekend to stop the semi-finals from being an all Kiwi lineup.
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The Crusaders will take on the Blues on Friday night in Christchurch for a spot in this year’s final, but the Blues will be up against it, as the Crusaders are 30-0 in playoff encounters at home.
The Chiefs, who are this year’s “lucky loser” after going down to the Blues last weekend in Hamilton, will host the Brumbies in Hamilton on Saturday night.
But the No.1 seed from the regular season will only host the final next week if the Blues beat the Crusaders, and if they take care of business at FMG Stadium Waikato against a strong Brumbies side.
The Monday following next weekend’s final, Scott Robertson will name his first All Blacks squad of the year, for the home series against France in early July.
Three former All Blacks have discussed what the makeup of the loose forwards may look like in Robertson’s 35-man squad, and how some players who are on the fringe may be unlucky, as they have been knocked out of this year’s competition.
Former All Black Mils Muliaina believes that it’s a disadvantage that some All Black hopefuls aren’t playing finals football, which tends to be closer to the physicality of a Test match.
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“That is a disadvantage because finals football is as close as you what you’re going to get to, Test match, intensity, Test match speed, but also everything around it,” Muliaina told The Breakdown on Sky Sports.
“So you’re missing two games, I mean, you think about a guy like Ethan Blackadder, he’s missed the majority of the season, but he comes into finals football and it’s like he’s never missed it.
“He’s going to get his sort of eye time, the All Black selectors are there.”
Muliaina believes that despite the Hurricanes being knocked out, Peter Lakai should be in Robertson’s first squad.
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“I like Peter Lakai too, I think he brings something a little bit different as well, I like him off the back, he can also play seven, and I think that’s what he’s got on his plate right now.
“Now, a lot of these guys can actually play multiple positions, he’s young, he’s a little bit different. You’ve got to remember his second Test was against the French. He came on at seven, he’s capable of bigger things.
Former 81-Test All Black halfback Justin Marshall explains that he still thinks the All Blacks need specialists in every position, and Crusaders No.8 Christian Lio-Willie brings that to the table for Robertson.
“We still need specialists, yes, these guys can play multiple positions, Scott Robertson has said that he likes that. But there’s nothing better than a specialist.
“So a guy like Christian Lio-Willie absolutely has to be as an out-and-out number eight, he doesn’t play anywhere else, doesn’t play six, doesn’t play seven.
“He runs hard, he’s good off the back of the scrum, he’s got a huge work rate and he’s the joint Crusaders rugby player of the year.
“So where is Robertson going to go? Is he going to go, right, I’m going to have these players that play, three or four positions, and then I can just manipulate them around and find the best answer.”
When asked about the Blues loose forward duo of Hoskins Sotutu and Dalton Papali’i, Marshall believes the Blues’ style of play in 2025 has hurt their chances.
“I think they’re always in the conversation, particularly Dalton Papali’i, but unfortunately, and this is not a personal opinion, this is just I feel they are a victim of the way the Blues have been playing.
“I think the ship has sailed for both of them, because the type of game that the Blues are playing, is definitely not the type of game that the All Blacks will want to play. So then you’re not really showing a balance in your game and the lack of the ability to have really consistent rugby.
“Playing a style of game that suits your DNA hasn’t helped either one of them, Hoskins in the weekend, it was a perfect opportunity for him to roll up his sleeves and get stuck in because of the way the game unfolded, and that just played into his wheelhouse, the way the Blues wanted it to.
“But there’s no doubt about the fact that he’s not playing poorly, Dalton’s not playing poorly, but I just don’t think they fixed the mix that the All Blacks want to select.”
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~I’m beginning to think the Razor has a personal bias against Sotutu, the guy has presence and menace written all over him, Justin can bang on about the ship sailing but I tend to think it’s Sotutus ‘brooding’ look / doesn’t smile a lot ….. that’s stopping him winning him a lot of friends at the AB selection table ! 😂
So Ian Foster and Joe Schmidt also had personal bias against Sotutu because they dropped him flat from the ABS in 2022 and again in 2023?
Everyone with over about 50 caps will get in regardless. You don’t drop ‘leadership group’ All Blacks apparently, no matter how many seasons of average play they churn out.
Only real changes might be the fringe squad members given limited time last year who will get replaced with a new player, only for them to hardly see any time, unless injuries occur.
Marshall was mistaken when he said that both Sotutu and Papalii had been discarded in 2024 by Razor. Papalii was selected for November tour but due to injury was replaced. That is a big difference.
I think Kirifi did the most damage to his All Black chances and Papalii did the most to enhance over the weekend.
Sotutu’s social media post last season showed tremendous lack of maturity and character and will not have been forgotten.
Papalii did not help himself whatsoever with last weekend’s match. Robertson has consistently banged on about both sides of the ball, and Papalii whilst good on defence, has been poor in attack all season.
we will find out on the 23rd of june
Based on last weekend there should be no Hurricanes loose forwards in the mix, they all seemed poor with the Brumbies once again fantastic at playing and executing as a team. The Hurricanes were also poor in the halves with the ten invisible and Cam Roigard trying to play up tempo, Helter skelter rugby which is what the Brumbies wanted.
Roigards passing was telegraphic with his running game and sniping non existent, Ratima also appears to be getting metronomic, devoid of flair and his ten went invisible as well.
If you can't step up at finals then you need to be punished, yes the blues were poor at times this season but they were right on either the last two games when it really matters.
CWL is a bit larger but both him and Lakai are down on size for an eight and aren't freaks like Savea. Sotutu has to be in the mix and Dalton, but only if they front this Friday night.
However six is an ongoing issue, Josh Beehre could be an answer to the lack of height in the loose forwards at Allblacks level, his driving try to ice the contest through a decent Chiefs pack was raw determination even with support.
As for the previous try being ruled out on the flimsiest of technicalities that highlighted everything wrong with the TMO, it wasn't ‘rabbiting’, his knees dropped one after the other and he then brought his shoulders forward to extend and score, big guys can do that, that's why Sotutu has to be in the mix.
Sititi looked short of a gallop and the Chiefs might be acting a bit too cute with their bench, the coach is saying all the right things but he's in the departure lounge and the signs are there that the Chiefs expected to be the best team in finals simply because they had the best bench.
They're now under the pump and the winner of this year's super final will almost certainly be whoever wins this Friday in Christchurch.
Mils making more sense than Marshall, though they are both on the same page that regular season performance is more important finals (in picking Lakai and ruling out Blues players if they win the comp again).
CWL is a 6/8 hybrid though, he is in the bruiser (not the cruiser) category of 6 though (the 8 six), like Grace, who was the preferred 8 over CWL until the swapped in his second year at the Crusaders.
When I’m looking at a bruiser 6, they are players the tackle hard and run straight, CWL is in that category, 8s tend to be more athletic/dynamic with the ball. Absolutely a good option for the bench.
Lakai is in the same camp, but he is that athletic/dynamic 8, just with the slightly smaller frame of a 7, he has more dominant, explosive carries, but doesn’t do as well on the other side of the ball as CWL.
These are the type of glue players that fill out that squad, it’s likely to be one or the other, and someone like Sotutu far more likely to be selected as the 8.
Personally, I think they will require some injuries before that is required.
Justin Marshall is right, Crusaders no 8 Christian Lio-Wilji should make the All Black squad. He has
. one of the form loosies in the comp. He deserved recently getting Crusader of the Year trophy joint with Will Jordan.
One of is exactly right GP. He’d deserve it if he did but also keep his chin up and bide his time if he didn’t. Not everyone can be an AB.
You’d presume that these guys are ‘in the know’. If they’re right, and the ‘ship has sailed’ for Sotutu and Papali’i, that is a staggering indictment of the Razor gang! That Chiefs pack has been huge all season - but they tried to take on the Blues through the middle and got stuffed, in large part because of the efforts of those two. If this tough, abrasive, gutsy skillset on both sides of the ball isn’t what the AB selectors are looking for in their test team, god help us!
Haha hell no you wouldn’t! Just listen to them.
Are you seriously claiming Sotutu is better than both Savea and Sititi? That is a truly ridiculous claim. Robertson has no interest in one-trick ponies who can only play one position.
They both put in very good shifts - Papalii should be in the squad 100%, Sotutu did his case a big favour too. No shortage of talent in the loosies:
Savea
Sititi
Lakai
Jacobson
Blackadder
Kirifi
Lio-Willie
Sotutu
Papalii
Finau
Cullen Grace (thought he was the Saders form loosie in first half of season)
Tom Christie (has been very good in recent weeks)
Simon Parker
That’s 13 players who are or could be international caliber. Some real headaches for the selectors.
I wouldn’t say the Chiefs pack got “stuffed” either for what it’s worth ;)