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Why the Springboks home Test series suits the All Blacks and Dave Rennie

Ben Smith

4 days ago

(Photos by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images and Phil Walter/Getty Images)

The South Africans in their infinite wisdom have scheduled their three Tests against the All Blacks at Ellis Park, Johannesburg, then Cape Town, then back at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg.

Two of the three Tests are in Jo’burg at altitude. In all seriousness, the Springboks would be better off playing Tests against the All Blacks at Hnry Stadium in Wellington than Johannesburg.

The introduction of Dave Rennie is key to the All Blacks making the most of this scheduling faux pas by the South Africans.

Springbok prop Ntuthuko Mchunu explains how he was convinced to move from the back row to the front row

With the right game plan, aided by execution, the Springboks can be blown off the park as they get steamed in the lung-burning furnace at altitude in Johannesburg.

The Boks are a big beast to tame, but once they are tired out they can be cooked over coals. Just see the Wallabies tape from 2025 where the Australians ran rings around Rassie’s showboaters trying to sling the ball around under instruction from Tony Brown. They conceded 38 unanswered points after leading 22-0 at one point in the first half.

Under Scott Robertson the All Blacks only played in Johannesburg once. They led 27-17 after a double to Caleb Clarke and a timely intercept to Jordie Barrett. A late-game meltdown by an inexperienced bench cost them in the win.

Strategically the All Blacks didn’t go full-throttle that afternoon in 2024 like they did in 2022 under Joe Schmidt’s genius.

In 2022 they had the same game plan across the Mbombela and Ellis Park Tests, the difference was execution. In Mbombela, they couldn’t execute. They tried running it out of their 22 but passes didn’t stick.

The final try in Mbombela to Willie le Roux off a turnover is the same shape and exit strategy they used at Ellis Park the next week when Rieko Ioane and Will Jordan tore apart the Boks on the edge.

The daring tactics turned the Boks big pack around and made them defend after backtracking 60 plus metres. They were gassed and the defence crumbled under the weight of the All Blacks skills. David Havili’s try was the dagger, after a long passage that started with a Ioane break from inside his own 22, lifted the All Blacks up to a 35-22 lead.

Razor didn’t have the Cojones to run the same game plan, but Dave Rennie does. He is a bold tactician with an impetus for risk. His Chiefs’ sides were high-scoring juggernauts that ran from everywhere when given the license.

If he decides that is the best way to attack a team, that is what he’ll do. The All Blacks will run it out wide from in front of their own goal posts before plowing them up the middle if he sees fit. And Rennie has a history of success against South Africa.

The Chiefs under Rennie were transformational. They evolved into a superpower of Super Rugby, from a sub 40 per cent win rate to pushing 70 per cent. They made savvy recruitment decisions, defined their own path, and became bigger than themselves. They pushed themselves to become the true rivals of the Crusaders, battling for New Zealand’s best team. That is still true today. Over the long run, the Chiefs and Crusaders are the most consistent New Zealand teams. What’s more is that they had the South Africans number.

From 2012-17 the Chiefs under Rennie had a record of 19 wins, two draws, and four losses against the South African teams. They won 76 per cent of their games. They lost just once on home soil. In South Africa, they only lost three of 13 games. Coming away undefeated 76.9 per cent of the time.

They were undefeated against South African teams when it mattered most, smoking the Sharks in the 2012 final 37-6 and knocking out the Stormers at home back-to-back in the playoffs, 60-21 and then 17-11 in 2016 and 2017.

Rennie’s South African success continued as coach of the Wallabies. Australia produced three consecutive shock wins over the champion Springboks. No one saw it coming.

He brought back Quade Cooper to pilot his plans, and the Wallabies expertly crafted their attack to exploit the Springboks at the tail of the lineout.

At the time, the Springboks would try to drive any lineout maul over the sideline. The Wallabies outfoxed them with a brilliantly schemed play that saw a fake maul, engaging the South Africans, before detaching and sending inside centre Samu Kerevi up the vacant lineout tail seam.

The first phase carry often resulted in a huge gain line win, forcing the Bok forwards to get up from the collapsed maul and backtrack a long way to get onside. The Wallabies played the same way multiple times before often finding a strike play against mismatched numbers on the opposite edge.

They scored frequently from these launch patterns, particularly in Brisbane in the 30-17 win with centre Len Ikitau scoring a double.

Rennie only had four Tests as head coach of the Wallabies against the Springboks but came away with three wins at a 75 per cent win rate, almost exactly the same as his Chiefs record against the South African sides.

Now he’s coach of the All Blacks with over a decade of experience of plotting the downfall of South African rugby sides.

He knows what it’s like to play at altitude and he knows what kind of game plans work for New Zealand sides. And he’s got the Cojones to use them.

And the South Africans have gifted him two of the three Tests at altitude when they have a much better record in Cape Town. Imagine that.

Comments

73 Comments

Hammer Head 3 days ago

What Ben isn’t accounting for is the games between the tests. I think they play four games against SA franchises which equates to:

4 opportunities for franchise players to soften up one two key kiwis. (Little wonder they’re bringing 80 players over).

4 opportunities for the bok coaches to unpack ABs tactics while having a beer.

4 opportunities for the franchise stadium caterers to feed the ABs. Avoid chicken cheese trammezzinis, baked in the sun.

CN 3 days ago

As always with Ben's articles, the comments are way better!

Hammer Head 3 days ago

100%

jp 3 days ago

Ben Smith Wow

Atlas 3 days ago

Love the fact that just like 3 years ago the new coach (Razor) will make NZ all conquering again even if he didn't even named his team yet. Groundhog day

WI 4 days ago

I wonder what was Razor’s Crusader’s record in the Republic?

Ayre123 None 4 days ago

Fairly good, I watched them few times at Ellis Park in 2016/19 vs a remarkable Lions team, I doubt Robertson team lost any game there that time.

PR 4 days ago

Please return to your mother’s basement Ben Smith.

Flankly 4 days ago

NZ will put up a good fight and will be hard to beat. Fair enough, but who didn’t already know that?

B 4 days ago

Keeping 15 All Black’s on the field for the full 80 minutes helps a little bit…

Howbzr76 4 days ago

Wow seems like Ben’s ruffled a few feathers in boki land🤬 lol calm down chaps, it’s just a game for Pete's sake. Don’t worrybe happy 😁

Hammer Head 3 days ago

Calm. We’re just amazed at your specimen Ben Smith.

You guys proud of him?

I mean, can you think of a respected rugby commentator anywhere that employs trolling as his only strategy to have a job writing about rugby? So he could pivot away from being an accountant.

You guys produced the best rugby team the world has ever seen. And then this guy.

Congratulations.

JW 4 days ago

Asking a lot of saffas Howbzr!

AO 4 days ago

No quite the contrary we have missed little Ben. Can do with a good mouth frothing, it has been to much of the Boks are better than everyone else, we do not need that talk, we need little Ben articles to keep it real.

johnz 4 days ago

I’ve seen nothing to suggest these SAs have a fitness weakness. Quite the oposite, in fact. It’s SA who normally blow teams off the park in the second stanza once the bomb squad arrives.

It’s the ABs who have struggled with fitness in recent years. Both in the last 20mins and through an inability to back-up performances from one week to the next.

Since Rennie hasn’t even started yet - it’s difficult to imagine he can magically transform the AB’s fitness into a weapon with such a short run in. In time, maybe, but I wouldn’t be counting on the ABs running SA of the park in the upcoming series.

Hammer Head 3 days ago

Agreed. I think the poor man needs to do a job before he can be evaluated on his performance.

MC_ 3 days ago

I agree. I’m a Kiwi and I think this is a grossly misinformed article lacking insight. I really don’t think fitness is an issue in professional rugby (not for top tier rugby nations anyway). Tactical substitutions is something the ABs seem to not really understand, especially under razor. Gone are the days where starting your ‘best’ 15 is the best chance of a win, especially with a roided up forward pack like the Boks :) It’s going to be an interesting year for the ABs. I’m happy with one win on this tour…something to build on for RWC 2027 lol

JW 4 days ago

Yeah it wasn’t fitness that saw them fall apart against Australia, it was mental.

They got carried away and were actually almost putting too much effort in to chases and blitz D and aussies just got behind them thanks to a lot of lucky bounces and same crazy skills from O’Connor and co.

Karlos G 4 days ago

I agree, certainly won't be running SA off the park, it sure gave me a laugh when I started reading it🤣 halfway through l thoughts this has got to be Ben Smith, sure enough scroll to the top for the author!

What the series will be for Rennie is a chance to take a larger squad and see if some players have got what it takes in the midweek games.ln the tests the ABs will be as competitive as ever, l'd be happy if they won 2! What a ridiculous place to take a test to the one in the states, rugby NEVER gonna make inroads there, should have played a 2nd one in Capetown or Durban

Wayneo 4 days ago

Ben Smith, RugbyPass’s resident historian and part-time delusional optimist, has cracked the code

Apparently, the South Africans, renowned for their tactical stupidity, have accidentally gifted the All Blacks a series win by playing at altitude

Because the Springboks with their massive pack that literally specializes in physical dominance and altitude have made a scheduling faux pas by playing... checks notes... at home in South Africa…

It’s a bold theory by the resident historian, it’s also completely insane

Unfortunately, this tactical masterclass reads less like sports journalism and more like a tear-stained diary entry from 2012

Ben makes out that Dave Rennie is the ultimate Bok-slayer because his Chiefs teams were quite good during the first Obama administration

It’s a bold strategy to suggest that beating the 2012 Sharks is the blueprint for toppling a back-to-back World Champion side in 2026, but let’s never let a decade or two of irrelevance stand in the way of a good narrative

Yes, please Ben, let the All Blacks base their 2026 Test strategy on the 2012 Super Rugby season

While we’re at it, why don’t we check if the All Blacks can still use the 2.4.2 pod system from 2015?

I’m sure Rassie Erasmus, a man who has won back-to-back World Cups (while Ben was busy updating his Chiefs Wins 2012-2017 spreadsheet) is absolutely shaking in his veldskoene

It’s touching, really, how Ben clings to Rennie’s 75% win rate against the Boks with the Wallabies

He conveniently forgets that Rennie’s Wallabies were about as consistent as a Wi-Fi signal in a thunderstorm

But hey, why let facts like the Springboks are the current world champions get in the way of a good Dave Rennie has Cojones narrative?

Ben, we get it, you miss the days when New Zealand teams could just show up and win by thirty

But writing articles that sound like they were found in a time capsule are not a gift to the to the All Blacks, but to the South African locker room

There is nothing a Bok loves more than a New Zealand pundit explaining why their greatest strengths are actually weaknesses

Saying that the Springboks will be blown off the park in Johannesburg is particularly charming

According to Ben, a 12-hour flight from sea level is actually the ideal preparation for sprinting at 1,700 meters

Yes, Ben, the South Africans who were born in the thin air, breathe the thin air, and have built a Bomb Squad specifically to exploit the fatigue of others in that thin air are definitely the ones who are going to gas out…

It’s a classic take, if the facts don’t fit your New Zealand-centric worldview, simply invent new physics

Ben, we hope you enjoy the view from 2012

The rest of us will be here in the present, watching a 130kg Springbok front row enjoy the gift of altitude while they remind the world that Super Rugby stats from the prehistoric era don’t actually win Test matches

cnw 4 days ago

I think you mean 360 kg front row Wayneo, and even then that’s a bit lite.

JW 4 days ago

Nice work Wayneo!

But if Rassie could choose a 70 percent win rate if they hosted a game in Wellington, he could surely have chosen it over a 25 percent win rate.

unknown 4 days ago

Ben = small man syndrome.

unknown 4 days ago

Ben is a proper pr!ck.

Snash 4 days ago

mate did you mention that the Boks have won 4 out of the last 5? And in Sep last year Boks beat the ABs 43 - 10 in Wellington NZ? you’re clutching at straws

JW 4 days ago

That was actually his suggestion Snash!

Hammer Head 4 days ago

No, but he did dig deep about something that happened in 2012.

Museum nationalism.

Baksteen 4 days ago

I doubt South Africa schedules venues based on suitability to win, it’s financial. Ellis Park, Soccer City, CPT will be their biggest revenue that is what it is these days

Hammer Head 4 days ago

Ben, in his infinite wisdom, couldn’t figure that one out himself.

Apparently he was an accountant once upon a time. Obviously not a good one who can make sense of numbers.

GM 4 days ago

Quiet news day, Ben?

Hammer Head 4 days ago

It must be burning around the edge of Ben’s nought that he’s been wrong about the Boks for so long now. So much so that he was anonymous for most of last season while his team struggled.

It was peace. Around here anywhere as he trolled elsewhere.

I wonder if being wrong again about the Boks this season, and South Africans and their infinite wisdom, will finally blow him off this park for good?

Would be nice.

Wiseguy 4 days ago

You’d have to stop commenting on his “articles” for that to happen.

IZITBRU 4 days ago

Yawn 🥱

Ayre123 None 4 days ago

The wily Rassie will find the players to combine size with altitude resilience, mostly from the Bulls, the question however is if Rennie does have the players that Foster had in 2022?

unknown 4 days ago

Yes but long time ago.Razor was even more brilliant than Dave found it tough. Query is does NZ have the depth beat the best. Once laughable. Not any more

JW 4 days ago

And they only won that Joburg game thanks to a gift first 8 points to them and ridiculous card against Ofa after blowing through their broken maul.

ZB 4 days ago

Is that the only reason? Here I was thinking it was because the Boks scored more points than the AB's over the allotted 80mins.

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