Why the Springboks home Test series suits the All Blacks and Dave Rennie

The South Africans in their infinite wisdom have scheduled their three Tests against the All Blacks at Ellis Park, Johannesburg, then Cape Town, then back at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg.

Two of the three Tests are in Jo’burg at altitude. In all seriousness, the Springboks would be better off playing Tests against the All Blacks at Hnry Stadium in Wellington than Johannesburg.

The introduction of Dave Rennie is key to the All Blacks making the most of this scheduling faux pas by the South Africans.

Springbok prop Ntuthuko Mchunu explains how he was convinced to move from the back row to the front row

Springbok prop Ntuthuko Mchunu explains how he was convinced to move from the back row to the front row

With the right game plan, aided by execution, the Springboks can be blown off the park as they get steamed in the lung-burning furnace at altitude in Johannesburg.

The Boks are a big beast to tame, but once they are tired out they can be cooked over coals. Just see the Wallabies tape from 2025 where the Australians ran rings around Rassie’s showboaters trying to sling the ball around under instruction from Tony Brown. They conceded 38 unanswered points after leading 22-0 at one point in the first half.

Under Scott Robertson the All Blacks only played in Johannesburg once. They led 27-17 after a double to Caleb Clarke and a timely intercept to Jordie Barrett. A late-game meltdown by an inexperienced bench cost them in the win.

Strategically the All Blacks didn’t go full-throttle that afternoon in 2024 like they did in 2022 under Joe Schmidt’s genius.

In 2022 they had the same game plan across the Mbombela and Ellis Park Tests, the difference was execution. In Mbombela, they couldn’t execute. They tried running it out of their 22 but passes didn’t stick.

The final try in Mbombela to Willie le Roux off a turnover is the same shape and exit strategy they used at Ellis Park the next week when Rieko Ioane and Will Jordan tore apart the Boks on the edge.

The daring tactics turned the Boks big pack around and made them defend after backtracking 60 plus metres. They were gassed and the defence crumbled under the weight of the All Blacks skills. David Havili’s try was the dagger, after a long passage that started with a Ioane break from inside his own 22, lifted the All Blacks up to a 35-22 lead.

Razor didn’t have the Cojones to run the same game plan, but Dave Rennie does. He is a bold tactician with an impetus for risk. His Chiefs’ sides were high-scoring juggernauts that ran from everywhere when given the license.

If he decides that is the best way to attack a team, that is what he’ll do. The All Blacks will run it out wide from in front of their own goal posts before plowing them up the middle if he sees fit. And Rennie has a history of success against South Africa.

The Chiefs under Rennie were transformational. They evolved into a superpower of Super Rugby, from a sub 40 per cent win rate to pushing 70 per cent. They made savvy recruitment decisions, defined their own path, and became bigger than themselves. They pushed themselves to become the true rivals of the Crusaders, battling for New Zealand’s best team. That is still true today. Over the long run, the Chiefs and Crusaders are the most consistent New Zealand teams. What’s more is that they had the South Africans number.

From 2012-17 the Chiefs under Rennie had a record of 19 wins, two draws, and four losses against the South African teams. They won 76 per cent of their games. They lost just once on home soil. In South Africa, they only lost three of 13 games. Coming away undefeated 76.9 per cent of the time.

They were undefeated against South African teams when it mattered most, smoking the Sharks in the 2012 final 37-6 and knocking out the Stormers at home back-to-back in the playoffs, 60-21 and then 17-11 in 2016 and 2017.

Rennie’s South African success continued as coach of the Wallabies. Australia produced three consecutive shock wins over the champion Springboks. No one saw it coming.

He brought back Quade Cooper to pilot his plans, and the Wallabies expertly crafted their attack to exploit the Springboks at the tail of the lineout.

At the time, the Springboks would try to drive any lineout maul over the sideline. The Wallabies outfoxed them with a brilliantly schemed play that saw a fake maul, engaging the South Africans, before detaching and sending inside centre Samu Kerevi up the vacant lineout tail seam.

The first phase carry often resulted in a huge gain line win, forcing the Bok forwards to get up from the collapsed maul and backtrack a long way to get onside. The Wallabies played the same way multiple times before often finding a strike play against mismatched numbers on the opposite edge.

They scored frequently from these launch patterns, particularly in Brisbane in the 30-17 win with centre Len Ikitau scoring a double.

Rennie only had four Tests as head coach of the Wallabies against the Springboks but came away with three wins at a 75 per cent win rate, almost exactly the same as his Chiefs record against the South African sides.

Now he’s coach of the All Blacks with over a decade of experience of plotting the downfall of South African rugby sides.

He knows what it’s like to play at altitude and he knows what kind of game plans work for New Zealand sides. And he’s got the Cojones to use them.

And the South Africans have gifted him two of the three Tests at altitude when they have a much better record in Cape Town. Imagine that.