LONG READ ‘Sarries may be outsiders in Prem play-off race but it would be unwise to write them off’

The Prem has billed this weekend as the most consequential round of the season. It doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue as a marketing slogan – a few too many syllables – but the claim could well be right.

The fixture quirk which sees the top six all going at each other – Bristol take on Saracens, Exeter face Bath and Leicester and Northampton do their feisty East Midlands derby dance again – means the play-off kaleidoscope is about to be given a sharp twist.

For Saracens in particular, the trip to Ashton Gate – sixth against fifth – feels like an eliminator game.

If Sarries lose to Bristol this weekend their chances of qualification drop to three per cent according to Oval, the Prem’s number crunchers. Three per cent pretty much equates to relying on their rivals mixing their dates up and not turning up.

So defeat on Saturday would be terminal for Maro Itoje and his men.

Bristol, with arguably the toughest run-in of all the contenders, cannot afford to lose either though.

“It gets to this point of the season where you can’t afford to slip up. It is ultimately big for them and big for us,” said Saracens head coach Joe Shaw.

“Obviously, if either side doesn’t get the result, it’s a huge blow. The lads know what’s needed.

“There’s so many big fixtures going on in the next four weeks, it’s like a rollercoaster. All we can do is just focus on ourselves and go down there and put our best foot forward in our performance. And if we win, hopefully those percentages go our way.”

The number of moving parts makes for a fascinating weekend. Exeter have it all to do against the Champions Cup semi-finalists and a defeat would open the door for Bristol to move above them into the top four. Equally a Chiefs win could see them leapfrog the Tigers into third if Leicester stumble against the Saints.

It is exactly the sort of intriguing scenario a play-off system is designed to throw up.

When a knockout conclusion to decide England’s champion club replaced the traditional first-past-the-post league system 23 years ago, there was a huge furore. But the system quickly became an established part of the landscape, with the original three-club format expanded to four in 2005/6.

If there is an inherent unfairness in the labours of a long season ultimately being made to count for nothing, it should be borne in mind that the Prem champions nearly always emerge from the regular season top two anyway. Only twice in 20 years has a club finishing third or fourth lifted the trophy – Saracens in 2014/15 and Harlequins in 2020/21. Quins were the last team from outside the top two to even reach the final.

Still, even if the record books show they are unlikely to become the champions in the end with an away semi-final to navigate, the dream of doing so keeps the pot boiling on the run-in for the clubs in and around third and fourth.

While Northampton and Bath can be safely assumed to finish in the top two this season – the only point of debate being the order they end up in – the skirmish for the other two semi-final spots is a live one with four rounds remaining.

Leicester have the points in the bag but a smelly run-in. Oval, though, remain confident that even if the Tigers lose at home to Northampton this weekend their chances of making the play-offs would still stand at 79 per cent. Let’s pencil them in then.

The data boffins are less convinced about the Chiefs. They may be in the box seat at the moment, but Oval only have them at 51 per cent to qualify for the play-offs ahead of this round of matches. Should they lose to Bath, that would drop to 38 per cent.

As for Bristol, Oval have them at 65 per cent if they can beat Saracens this weekend – despite the fact that they still have Northampton and Bath.

The kingmakers could be the clubs who are out of the play-off race. While the clubs near the danger zone in football’s Premier League are winning games left, right and centre as they scrap to preserve their status, the stragglers in English rugby’s top flight are in a much more comfortable situation.

With relegation no longer a threat, can they find the same fight with nothing at stake for them? It looked like Sale were already on the beach when they surrendered 85-19 to Saracens at the AJ Bell Stadium three weeks ago.

For the play-off chasers, games against clubs stuck in the boondocks are all-but guaranteed five-point hauls and Sarries have two at home to Gloucester and Harlequins.

Despite being seven behind Exeter at present, with the Chiefs to play in the last round they could still pull this off.

They are on a high wire, that is true, but they have been up there since they lost to Bath and Northampton in March. Minds focused, they knocked off Sale and Leicester in contrasting style before the European break.

So while Bristol are counting the cost of yet more injury trouble – hooker Gabriel Ohgre and No 8 Benjamin Grondona are gone for the season now – Saracens roll up to Ashton Gate with a helpful breeze behind them.

For all the inconsistencies of their season as a whole, when it comes to crunch time, Sarries have some wise owls in their squad. Players of the calibre of Itoje, Owen Farrell and Jamie George have been there and done it under the highest pressure in the type of no-tomorrow games they are faced with.

“Experience is everything, isn’t it?” said Shaw. “When you get to this stage of the season, we’re really blessed as we have players that understand what knockout rugby ultimately is. What it takes. Crucially, on the pitch, they can bring a sense of calm when sometimes it can get frantic. It’s great to have that kind of leadership in the squad.”

They may be the outsiders in the race but it would be unwise to write Saracens off. They could yet take this race down to the wire.