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The household name Lions tour omission being predicted by bookmakers

By Josh Raisey
British and Irish Lions head coach Warren Gatland

Bookmakers Betfair have 30 players odds-on to make the British and Irish Lions squad this summer, but Ireland captain Jonathan Sexton is not included.

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The fly-half is evens to take on the Springboks this summer, but sits behind Owen Farrell, Finn Russell and Dan Biggar. Should Warren Gatland opt for three No10s as he did in 2017, the Irishman is poised to miss out.

Sexton’s Ireland and Leinster teammate Cian Healy is another player who is not odds-on, as is recent Wales centurion George North, who will be aspiring to make his third tour.

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Having said that, four props are favourites currently, Kyle Sinckler, Tadhg Furlong, Wyn Jones and Mako Vunipola, yet Gatland took six in 2017. So Healy, Ellis Genge, Andrew Porter and Zander Fagerson all have the same odds (11/10) to for the final two spots to fill the quota of three tightheads and looseheads, while Tomas Francis and Rory Sutherland are outsiders.

North is 6/4 to be selected, while his 20-year-old compatriot Louis Rees-Zammit is 6/5 following a blistering opening three rounds of the Guinness Six Nations. His odds will sharply improve over the coming weeks if his form continues though.

Sexton Ireland concussion
(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

The majority of the players that are currently odds-on have impressed over the opening three rounds of the Six Nations. In fact, Manu Tuilagi is the only player from the 30 that has not featured in this year’s Championship having torn his Achilles tendon in November.

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Tuilagi is joined by 13 other Englishmen on the list of favourites, with Farrell having the best odds at 1/20. Some noticeable names from England that are not odds-on are Luke Cowan-Dicke, who is evens, and injured 2017 tourist Jack Nowell. Meanwhile, exiled Exeter Chiefs star Sam Simmonds is 2/1.

Five Irishmen are odds-on, Conor Murray, Gary Ringrose, James Ryan, CJ Stander and Furlong, while Tadhg Beirne is evens and Robbie Henshaw is 6/5.

Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell and Jonny Gray are the three Scottish favourites, although winger Duhan van der Merwe stands a very good chance at 5/4, while both Hamish Watson and Rory Sutherland are 6/4. Jamie Ritchie, arguably Scotland’s form back row, has strangely long odds at 7/2.

Following a surprising upturn in form after a poor 2020, Welsh players are big winners from this list with eight favourites. Josh Adams and Wyn Jones are the only two from that eight that have not toured with the Lions before. Taulupe Faletau is also evens, but there is no space currently for 2013 player of the series Leigh Halfpenny.

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Of course, Gatland is going to select more than 30 players for the series whether it is in South Africa or elsewhere. That means plenty of players who are not favourites currently are still going to feature.

With three wins from three in this year’s Six Nations, a number of Welsh players would have thrown their hat into the ring this spring but the biggest test lies ahead. Wayne Pivac’s side face Italy in round four before a potential Grand Slam decider against France in Paris on the final weekend. Should they triumph at the Stade de France, it is likely that far more than eight players will be odds-on.

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Jon 6 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 9 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

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A
Adrian 11 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

36 Go to comments
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