My World Cup predictions - Andy Goode
There will be twists and turns aplenty in the next three and a bit weeks of World Cup pool action but all four home nations will make it through to the quarter-finals.
A few huge stories will develop over the course of the pool stages with injuries and bans likely to play a major role, so anything can happen and it’s not going to go perfectly to form. But I do think the top eight teams in the world rankings now will make the knockout stage.
New Zealand versus South Africa is a mouth-watering match to have on the opening weekend but, to be honest, I don’t really think it matters who wins too much as they are both getting out of that pool and who knows which side of the draw will prove to be easier.
Scotland’s game against Ireland is far more important in reality as if they lose, that pool will build towards the epic crescendo of them facing hosts Japan and having to win to qualify for the last eight. They would have to do so just four days after playing Russia as well.
That would be tough but the Scots will have too much and Japan have got to beat Samoa before we get to that point anyway. I can’t see them beating Ireland first up, though, especially with the weather conditions expected in Yokohama.
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England are looking good on the back of some good performances and results in the warm-up games but things can change very quickly at World Cups and it’s not very long ago that they were surrendering a massive lead against Scotland in the Six Nations, so they won’t be counting their chickens.
I do expect them to top Pool C, though, so Saturday’s game between France and Argentina is massive. Maxime Medard has described it as “an all or nothing match”, which says it all really.
The Pumas are currently on their worst ever run, losing nine Tests in a row, and France have just started to find a bit of form, which has made people sit up and think that they might be able to make an impact in Japan.
‘There’s a lot of pride in how rugby is played, the camaraderie of players from different teams. That’s slipping. We’re getting some things we don’t need’
– Graham Henry with @JLyall93 on gamesmanship, mental health, All Blacks and @rugbyworldcup minnowshttps://t.co/sPvsN4ke5r— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 19, 2019
Both those teams normally turn up at World Cups but France have the edge with the likes of Antoine Dupont, Virimi Vakatawa, Alivereti Raka, Damian Penaud and co capable of pulling rabbits out of hats in the backline.
Wales were on top of the world a few weeks ago but back-to-back defeats to Ireland and now the Rob Howley bombshell mean there are a few more question marks over them. That kind of disruption does have the potential to unsettle the squad.
It all depends on how the players react and how adaptable they are because Stephen Jones is an awesome coach, so it could even improve their attack if they respond in the right manner.
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Fiji look phenomenal on paper and they have been together for 12 weeks prior to this tournament, which hasn’t been the case in the past, so they could cause a scare or two in Pool D. Let’s not forget that they beat Wales and knocked them out, taking the pool runners-up spot behind Australia back in 2007.
Any team with Leone Nakarawa, Bill Mata and Peceli Yato in the forwards and Semi Radradra, Josua Tuisova, Vereniki Goneva and more in the backs has a chance and, having spoken to some people, the Aussies are nervous about that game first up.
I can see why they are worried but the greater structure in the games of Australia and Wales and their experience means they will have too much.
#RWC2019: #RUS?? Captain @VA_rugby gives a fantastic overview of the game of rugby in our country in this interview with @RugbyPass https://t.co/KPLPoaj8Le
— Russian Rugby (@russiarugby) September 15, 2019
Last month I would have said that Wales were going to top that pool but the injuries that they have picked up, together with a bit of unrest and also the conditions in Japan, mean I have swung towards Australia to just edge it.
There could be red cards galore with the uncertainty around how the high tackle framework will be implemented by different referees, which would throw the most open World Cup ever even more wide open.
However, while predictions can make you look foolish, I don’t think you can go too far wrong with those eight teams and standout players.
MY QUARTER-FINAL LINE-UP
England v Wales
Australia v France
Ireland v South Africa
New Zealand v Scotland
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With Namibia, Canada and Italy in their pool, tries are on the cards for the All Blacks #rugbyworldcup
TOP TRY SCORER
There are a few other interesting areas to look at and if I were a betting man, I’d be having a few quid on George Bridge to be top try scorer, but I’d better be a bit careful after what has happened to Howley!
New Zealand wingers obviously tend to score a bucket load of tries and they have got Namibia, Canada and Italy in their pool. They have also really only picked three wingers in the squad and I can’t see Rieko Ioane and Sevu Reece starting together in the big games.
TOP POINTS SCORER
I’m going with Beauden Barrett to be the tournament’s top points scorer. Some people will question that given the uncertainty around whether Richie Mo’unga will start at 10 and perhaps do the kicking, but he is world-class and I’m backing him.
BREAKTHROUGH PLAYER OF THE TOURNAMENT
It sounds strange to call him a breakthrough player really, given what he’s done in the Top 14 in recent years, but France’s new Fijian Alivereti Raka hasn’t been seen on the world stage yet and he is one of the deadliest wingers in the game.
PLAYER OF THE TOURNAMENT
It’s pretty tough to pick a player of the tournament but you would have to go with someone from the team you think will likely win it. If they move him back to flyhalf, Barrett will stand out above the rest and win that award.
WATCH: Neil Back recalls England’s 2003 triumph in the opening episode of the new RugbyPass series, Rugby World Cup Memories
Comments on RugbyPass
Finau is not leaving a lot of room for error that’s true, but he committed to 3 out of four tackles when the player had the ball so that’s all legal. (And incredibly entertaining)
5 Go to commentsHow does the size of the ‘bloke being hit’ factor into this? If you’re on the opposing team you are fair game. Is Finau the first person in history to target the first five? It seems like this is a great strategy to interrupt your opponents attack. As far as I’m aware, of the four excellent hits on Aussie first fives this year only one of them was ruled late. So if crying about legal tackles isn’t whingeing, then what is it?
5 Go to commentsThings I want to pay attention to this series. 1) Nothing against the other teams in 6 nations, but apart from Irelands loss to england, I dont feel they got tested, So I think this might be tight. 2) Rassie wants to build depth, and would rather do it before a world cup, but I am sure deep inside, he will be reminded that we have not beaten Ireland in years. 3) Will our new coaches plans be sound abd organised in time for the Ireland series? Remember our warm ups might only see our second or third string players available (When are we going to have one universal calander year?) 4) I see Ireland have moved on from Sexton, but what will Farrels plans be for SA? I am sure he will go for a full strength squad. 5) I think the test for the springboks will be the Durban game, it will be in winter, so not too hot for the Irish,no altitude, and it rains allot, might remind them of home. Loftus, if the springboks play the right game, I feel altitude like with most games before, can cause some challanges. 6) Off topic, but who is both Anxious and excited about what the Abs are coming with? A whole new coaching team and different style of play.
114 Go to commentsMost underrated player in world rugby.
2 Go to commentsHow many fans will travel to Qatar to watch these games ? because if they dont, it will be played in front of a few disinterested unknowledgeable Qataris and then just becomes media ‘content’. Thats what Test rugby will be reduced to.
1 Go to commentsSo as long as the playmaker still has the ball IN his hands, its OK. Otherwise the timing is wrong and he’s a liability. No grey line there. Thats the rule he is advocating ? Got it.
5 Go to commentsWrite them off at your peril
8 Go to commentsJust fantastic that the professional game is finally being taken to the Pacific islands. Not before time. It justifies the mere existence of Moana as a club, hopefully they can start to get some positive results too. Check out the sheer joy of the crowds in Fiji and the buzz that having a home team creates. Tonga always had (has ?) issues with their ground not complying with International rugby standards, which NZ always used as an excuse for many years not bringing the All Blacks over. Hopefully this match is the first of many. Would be great to see some tourism grow on the back of it. I once went to the Cook Islands Sevens in Rarotonga - tiny island nation but man did they turn it on. Tonga and Samoa will too given half a chance.
1 Go to commentsQuite right. Punish the time wasters. Its BS these time delays for non-injuries. The Boks have been using it for years now to slow down opposition and now its a scourge on the game. Put players like DeGroot on the sideline and restart play immediately. Watch how 5-6 min to fix your boots quickly becomes 1-2 minutes. Better still how about some personal professional management and you check the conditions/turf beforehand and get yourself better prepared. It might even help your team.
1 Go to commentsWhat drivel. Rugby as a contact sport should not be further diminished by crying over legal hard tackles. Take on the line? Be ready to take the hit. This is PC nonsense.
5 Go to commentsGregor Paul is going to be proved totally wrong. The Crusaders will get in the top 8 and are capable of winning this comp. The return of magnificent captain and player Scott Barrett on Friday was huge. There are a number of players returning and Ethan Blackadder showed huge progression in only his third game back. Christian Lio-Willie has added a new dimension , these two’s combination with Cullen Grace was fantastic. This builds depth when you have outstanding players like Tom Christie and Dom Gardiner also available. The tight five improved ten fold and this is with Tamaiti Williams and Codie Taylor being back.Others are set to return. Johnny McNicoll on his return home has been a revelation. Paul can dismiss Fridays win by the Crusaders as much as he likes and he will prove very popular in this country in doing so. But he will be proved wrong , Rob Penney and his coaching team will have the last laugh.
8 Go to commentsI haven’t seen or heard to many whinging about Finau quite the opposite. The TMO’s have reviewed each time and taken no action, so if they have now been alerted it’s not from people whinging The player comes flying out of the line and launches himself at the attacker so it is probably ruled as a committed tackle, but at what point does it move to tackling a player without the ball Time will tell
5 Go to commentsThis cracked media record of aligning success or failure on head coaches is remarkable. Using the crusaders past history as an example, a more sensible observation and analysis could be that the recent head coaches had inherited a extremely successful combination of players linked to their traditional historical support of the Canterbury people. That period ended this year when the new coach was introduced to virtually a new team. And in a year where other franchises have grown much stronger than their respective past, it was always an anticipated reality that the coach and his new crusader team were up against it. Therefore, I humbly believe that unlike some commentators present, I laud coach Penny and the team for their efforts to date and I am sure given another term and with Canterbury behind them they will be riding high once more. Strange all this coming from me who lives in Taupo and a one eyed chiefs supporter. Can't wait for all future chiefs and crusader games!
8 Go to commentsGrt bench player..keep him there..
3 Go to commentsA Springbok 2-0 win: haha told you we were champions now shut up An Irish 2-0 win: the referee was under orders from world rugby to cheat us but luckily we don’t care because this is part of Rassie’s grand world Cup plan.
114 Go to commentsI hope they didn’t pay Jones fee?
2 Go to commentsTo be fair, the teams he's had to put out are reminiscent of those available to Gatland during his horrible run at the Chiefs in late 2020. Anyway, he's only got a two year contract and Wellingtonian Tamati Ellison will be ready by then, as will a lot of talented youngsters (like the Chiefs Gatland blooded). The Crusaders are planning for the long term.
8 Go to commentsGreat to see more community spending leading to higher participation in the community. It's a long road but that's a good first step.
2 Go to commentsPoetic justice for trying to sell him to Australia as another kiwi saviour coach, not ! Deans was just as bad actually but McCaw and Carter covered up for him. That’s why they didn’t want him as All Black coach, even after Graeme Henry’s bumbling effort in 2007.
8 Go to commentsSACK HIM !
8 Go to comments