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This week marks the New Zealander’s tenth anniversary as Wales coach and Gatland would love nothing more than for his side to halt a run of 12 successive losses to the Wallabies, with the last Welsh win against Australia back in 2008.
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For much of his time in charge, Wales’s back-play has been built on bursting through the gainline, with inside centre Jamie Roberts the crash-ball carrier of choice — the so-called ‘Warrenball’ approach.
But experienced midfielder Roberts isn’t even on the bench this weekend, with Gatland rolling the dice by pairing Owen Williams at inside centre alongside fly-half Dan Biggar in a twin playmaker system.
Wing Steffan Evans and flankers Josh Navidi and Aaron Shingler will also start, with captain Alun Wyn Jones one of seven British and Irish Lions in the home side.
“We have had our ups and downs in that 10-year period, but it has been exciting and challenging,” Gatland said. “Now we’re going to change the way we play a little bit.”
Gatland, returning to Wales duty after overseeing the touring British and Irish Lions 1-1 series draw against world champions New Zealand in June and July, added: “This team is a reward for some players. Aaron has proved himself over the last year and Josh Navidi has played everywhere across the back-row.
“Owen has a pretty good record at centre. Everyone has talked about his attack, but what is going to win Saturday’s game is defence.”
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“Australia has a massive midfield and two direct wings so I don’t think they’re going to be too worried about throwing the ball around. I think they’re going to be pretty direct.
“For us the result is important, we want to win every game,” insisted Gatland, who has urged supporters to be patient with his side as they adapt to their new style of play which the coach hopes will stand them in good stead for the 2019 World Cup in Japan.
In centre Jonathan Davies, No 8 Taulupe Faletau and skipper Jones, a commanding lock, Wales still have plenty of physical presence.
But they will head into Saturday’s match as underdogs having been hammered 32-8 by Australia in Cardiff last year under caretaker coach Rob Howley, in charge while Gatland was seconded to the Lions.
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“I don’t know what it is, but I wouldn’t say Australia are a bogey team,” said Jones. “We have come very close to beating them and in some games we felt we should have. It is not necessarily a curse.”
Australia, who have beaten Japan and New Zealand in their last two games, will arrive in Cardiff in fine form, with Michael Cheika’s side captained by flanker Michael Hooper.
Vice-captains Will Genia and Bernard Foley team up at scrumhalf, with Kurtley Beale at fullback.
The Wallabies boast 293 international caps among their replacements alone but Cheika was wary of a remodelled Wales team.
“I’ve seen the new guys Wales have picked and they are quality players,” said Cheika. “I think that debutants give you a certain power and they can change a side.
“One thing I’ve learnt in my career is to expect anything to happen on any given day. It’s the first game of the series for Wales and I am sure there will be a change of some sort.”
As for Australia having some sort of ‘edge’ on Wales, Cheika said: “I’ve never been a believer in a psychological barrier. It’s all about consistency and then when you get to game day, the match starts at 0-0.”
Players to watch:
For Wales: You will start by looking at the three newcomers – Scarlets wing Steff Evans, Gloucester’s centre Owen Williams and Cardiff Blues flank Josh Navidi. Then there are the usual suspects – Leigh Halfpenny, Liam Williams and Dan Biggar. However, the loose trio of Taulupe Faletau, Navidi and Aaron Shingler could hold the key.
For Australia: Kurtley Beale at fullback is interesting, especially since he was such a star at inside centre in recent weeks. Tevita Kuridrani and Samu Kerevi make for a more forceful midfield – the Wallabies going for brawn over brain here. The return of Will Genia at scrumhalf will compensate for the – somewhat. Michael Hooper, as always, will be a joy to watch.
Head to head: You would pay good money to watch Leigh Halfpenny (Wales) against Kurtley Beale (Australia) – the skills of both are worth it. Although there are indeed quality head-to-head battles all over the field, the midfield could be particularly interesting – the Wales pair of Jonathan Davies (1.86m, 104kg) and Owen Williams against Australia’s Fijian combination of Tevita Kuridrani (1.94m, 102kg) and Samuel Kerevi (1.86m, 105kg)
Recent results
2016: Australia won 32-8, Cardiff
2015: Australia won 15-6, London (World Cup pool match)
2014: Australia won 33-28, Cardiff
2013: Australia won 30-26, Cardiff
2012: Australia won 14-12, Cardiff
2012: Australia won 20-19, Sydney
2012: Australia won 23-25, Melbourne
2012: Australia won 27-19, Brisbane
2011: Australia won 24-18, Cardiff
2011: Australia won 21-18, Auckland (World Cup third-place play-off)
Prediction: The number of times that there a single score separated these two teams is astonishing. Australia has won their last 12 games against Wales and 15 of their last 16 encounters. It is likely to follow the same pattern – the Wallabies winning a close battle – seven points or less.
Teams:
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Liam Williams, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Owen Williams, 11 Steff Evans, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Josh Navidi, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (captain), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans.
Replacements: 16 Kristian Dacey, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Leon Brown, 19 Cory Hill, 20 Sam Cross, 21 Aled Davies, 22 Owen Watkin, 23 Hallam Amos.
Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Marika Koroibete, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Matt Philip, 20 Ben McCalman, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Karmichael Hunt, 23 Henry Speight.
Date: Saturday, November 11
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17.15 (17.15 GMT; 04.15 AEDT, Sunday, November 12)
Expected weather: It doesn’t really matter if they close the roof, but there will be a little rain from tropical rainstorm Rina. High of 13°C and a low of 2°C
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Jaco Peyper (South Africa), Ian Tempest (England)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)
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Comments on RugbyPass
Exeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
30 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
30 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
5 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
30 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
5 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
5 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
11 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
11 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
11 Go to comments