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The European Champions Cup kicks off this week with teams from the English Premiership, French Top 14 and the Irish-Welsh-Scottish-Italian Pro 12 vying for the title currently held by Saracens. The London side are again playing some clinical rugby, but will they be able to hold on to their crown? James Harrington sizes up the five pools to predict which teams will reach the last eight*.
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POOL 1
Glasgow Warriors | Leicester Tigers | Munster | Racing 92
Sorry, Munstermen. Irish by birth and Munster by the grace of god you may be, but your glory years are long behind you, and Thomond Park is a crumbling shadow of its former fortress self. The two-time champions’ reward for sneaking into this year’s Champions Cup party is a slot in Pool 1, where Top 14 champions and last season’s losing Champions Cup finalists Racing 92 lie in wait, alongside last season’s losing Premiership and Champions Cup semi-finalists Leicester. Oh, and 2015 Pro12 champions Glasgow, who everyone really should respect more than they do. But, no one will and, in the final reckoning, the Warriors won’t matter. This is between Racing and Leicester – and the moneybags Top 14 side have the edge. Sadly for Leicester, they look like they could miss the quarter-final cut by the cruelest of narrow margins.
POOL 2
Connacht | Toulouse | Wasps | Zebre
Pool 2 is the easiest of the five Champions Cup groups to call. You can narrow it down with barely a thought to a straight fight for top spot between (in alphabetical order) Toulouse and Wasps. A little more imagination – about enough to open a closed door – should have you reaching the conclusion that the English side will finish at the head of the Pool 2 pile. It’s also safe to say that surprise Pro12 champions Connacht are also likely to have their say on the outcome. The difference between first and second is likely to be how the Top 14 and Premierships outfits fare in the west of Ireland, and how close to 100 they get against token Italian side and pool whipping boys Zebre. The only problem in the Wasps equation is that their last pool game, at the back end of January, is in Italy. It can be unpleasantly cold in Parma in January – just ask Toulouse, who laboured to a frozen 16-6 win there in early 2014.
POOL 3
Toulon | Sale Sharks | Saracens | Scarlets
Once upon a time, not very long ago, even before the pool stages kicked off it was hard to look past Toulon as champions-in-waiting. Their golden age, between 2012 and 2014, saw them lift three European crowns in a row, as well as the Top 14 title in 2014. Now, things are more uncertain at Stade Felix Mayol. The Diego Dominguez era has got off to what could be most politely described as an inauspicious start. It will be interesting to see if former Bath coach Mike Ford, who has come in with a brief to run pretty much everything while nominal boss Dominguez nods sagely and tells people “do what Mike says,” can turn things around – and, if so, how quickly. Frankly, it will have to be pretty fast. Toulon open their account at home to defending champions Saracens, who eased to the top of the English Premiership with a convincing win over their biggest domestic opponents Wasps on Sunday. Don’t bother looking beyond these two to progress from Pool 3. Sale and Scarlets have neither the firepower or the nous to mount a serious challenge.
POOL 4
Castres Olympique | Leinster | Montpellier | Northampton Saints
The two French sides – Jake White’s hard-to-beat, hard-to-like Montpellier, and the prog rock-sounding Christophe Urios project that is Castres Olympique – are the rival kingmakers of Pool 4. Both Top 14 clubs are returning to Europe’s top table after a period in the Challenge Cup wilderness, and how much trouble they cause possible quarterfinalists Northampton and Leinster will decide whether the English and / or Irish side reach the knockout phase. The fact is, although both will put up a better show than Castres managed the last time they were involved in this competition (when they were, frankly, an embarrassment) neither French outfit is likely to trouble the quarterfinal schedulers, leaving three-time champions Leinster and millennium winners Northampton to scrap for the points they need to reach the last eight. Northampton should make it – and, given a fair wind and a big slice of luck, Leinster could become the Pro 12’s sole representatives in the knockout stage.
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POOL 5
Clermont Auvergne | Bordeaux Begles | Exeter Chiefs | Ulster
If Pool 5 has a puzzlingly familiar look, that’s because three of these teams met in Pool 2 of last season’s competition. Back then, Exeter were as delighted and surprised as anyone to reach the quarterfinals courtesy of a remarkable final pool game between Clermont and Bordeaux at Stade Marcel Michelin. The hosts only needed a point to ensure qualification. But, with less than a minute on the clock at the end of an epic encounter and Clermont 28-37 down, Morgan Parra took a quick tap penalty from in front of the posts when a calmly slotted and straightforward kick would have been good enough. You have to favour Clermont to be in the reckoning at the business end of the competition, but they are just frustrating enough, while Exeter and former champions Ulster are more than good enough to make this by far the most difficult of the five pools to call. Bordeaux are the dark horses – for the second season in a row they sneaked into the competition through a back door. They won a play-off at the death against Gloucester to reach last season’s competition, and have Challenge Cup champions Montpellier to thank for their place in this season’s tournament. They can, and probably will, spring the odd surprise and cause the occasional scare, but their interest in the competition is likely to end in January 2017.
So, there you have it. To finish things off neatly, here are the eight teams you should look forward to seeing in the quarterfinals. Last season, the quarter-finals featured five English and three French clubs. This season, expect to see four Top 14 sides (Toulouse, Toulon, Clermont, Racing 92), three Premiership outfits (Wasps, Saracens, Northampton) and, for purely romantic reasons, Leinster.
* James pleads: “Please don’t put the rent money on these predictions”
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
20 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
8 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
72 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
20 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
8 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
2 Go to commentsThe Hurricanes are good, especially with a decent coach now. However, let’s be real, the Crusaders and Chiefs are clearly a good degree weaker without the players they’ve lost overseas now. The Canes lost one player. It’s also why the aussie teams ‘seem’ to be stronger.
9 Go to commentsOr you could develop your own players instead of constantly taking from the SH competition and weakening it in the process? With all the player and financial resources these unions have compared to SH countries you’d think they could manage that, or is weakening the SH comps and their national sides an added bonus? Probably.
3 Go to commentsNot so fast Aaron, we might need you in black yet lol. God knows he’d be a lot less nerve-racking than hot and (very) cold players like Perofeta. It’s really a shame Reuben Love isn’t playing 10, we’ve got enough 15 options.
4 Go to commentsAnd those from the NH still seem to be puzzled (and delighted) why NZ’s depth isn’t what it once was. Over 600 NZ players overseas, that’s insane. This sort of deal is why Super Rugby coaches have admitted they struggle now to find enough quality to fill out their squads.
6 Go to commentsArticle intéressant ! La question devrait régulièrement se poser pour les jeunes français originaires de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Wallis-et-Futuna et de Polynésie entre la Nouvelle-Zélande et la Métropole… Difficile pour la fédération française de rugby de se positionner : soit le choix est fait de dénicher les jeunes talents et de les faire venir très tôt en Métropole, au risque de les déraciner, soit on prend le risque de se les faire “piller” par les All Blacks qui, telle une araignée, essaye de récupérer tous les talents des îles du Pacifique… À la France de se défendre en développant l’aura du XV de France et des clubs français dans ses collectivités d’Outre-mer !
3 Go to commentsWrong bay. He needs to come to the REAL BAY which is Bay Of Plenty and have a crack at making the Chiefs.
3 Go to commentsIs Barrett going play full back??? They already have all the centers…
15 Go to commentsForgive my ignorance, I might not fully understand so would appreciate clarification: Didn’t the Bulls have to fly with three different carriers, paid for by the South African Rugby Union, whilst Edinburgh got a chartered flight sponsored by EPCR? Also, as far as I understand it South African teams don’t yet share in the revenue from the competition and are not allowed to host Semi-finals or Finals at home. Surely if everyone wants South Africans to “take the competition seriously” then they must make South Africans feel welcome, allow them to share in the revenue, and give them the same levels of access as the teams from the other countries. Just a reminder that South Africa has a large and passionate Rugby audience. Just by virtue of our teams being a part of these competitions means that more of us are likely to watch the knockout games, even if our teams haven’t qualified. It would be silly to alienate such a large audience by making them feel unwelcome.
20 Go to commentsFirst of all. This guy is very much behind the curve. All the bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning took place days ago already. Not adding anything to the topic other than more bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning. 🍼 Second of all, not one mention of the fact that South African teams can’t get home semi finals or finals. The tournament was undermined and devalued by the administrators. 🤡 Thirdly, football teams often have to juggle selections in mid week games, premier games, champions league games etc. and will from time to time prioritize certain titles over others. 🐒 And lastly FEK Neil, and anyone else for that matter, for insisting on telling teams how to manage themselves. If they make what is largely a business decision that suits them and doesn’t suit you - tough shite. 💩 It’s not rocket science as to why the Bulls did what they did. If this guy is too slow to figure it out (and is deliberately not mentioning one of the key reasons why) then he isn’t a journalist. He should join the rest of us pundit plebs in comments section. 🥴
20 Go to commentsSo the first door to knock on Rob is Parliament followed by HMRC. The Irish Revenue deliver a 40% tax relief rebate on the HIGHEST EARNING TEN YEARS of every pro Irish rugby players contract earnings at retirement. That goes a long way to both retaining their best talent and freeing up wages for marquee players. Who knows, if that had been in place in the UK, you might not have been able to poach Hoggy and Jonny Gray from Glasgow…!!!
3 Go to comments1. True, if that “free” ticket means access to all but the prized exhibit - EVIP only. SA cannot host semis, even if they’ve earned it (see Sharks vs ASM Clermont Auvergne at… Twickenham Stoop). 2. Why no selective outrage over Lyon doing the exact same thing a week earlier? Out of all the countries France send the most “B teams”, why nobody talking about “disrespect” and “prioritising domestic leagues” and “kicking them out”? 3. Why no mention of the Sharks fielding all of their Springboks for the second rate Challenge cup QF? No commitment? 4. Why no mention of all the SA teams qualifying for respective euro knock out comps in the two seasons they’ve been in it? How many euro teams have qualified for KO’s in their history? Can’t compete? 5. Why no mention of SA teams beating French and English giants La Rochelle and Saracens? How many euro teams have done that in their history? Add no quality? The fact is that SA teams are only in their second season in europe, with no status and a fraction of the resources. Since joining the URC, SA has seen a repatriation of a number of players, and this will only grow once SA start sharing in the profits of competing in these comps, meaning bigger squads with greater depth and quality, meaning they don’t have to prioritise comps as they have to now - they don’t have imports from Pacifica and South America and everywhere else in between like “European” teams have - also less “Saffas” in Prem and T14, that’s what we want right? 'If the South Africans are in, they need to be all in' True, and we have to ensure we give them the same status and resources as we give everyone else to do just that. A small compromise on scheduling will go a long way in avoiding these situations, but guess what, France and England wont compromise on scheduling because they ironically… prioritise their domestic comps, go figure!
20 Go to commentsthe success of the premiership can be summarized by : only 10 teams. It makes a huge difference with the overcrowded top 14 (let us not talk about Leinster and URC…)
2 Go to comments