Scrum-halves in their 30s don't usually start at a World Cup, so jockeying for No9 has started in Wales for France 2023
With rugby stuck in paralysis, many scribes and fans alike are casting their eyes forward to the next World Cup, something you expect Wayne Pivac and Wales are doing with the benefit of dizzying amounts of unplanned thinking time. France 2023 is still a distant speck in the distance and one position the Welsh appear well-stocked in at the moment is scrum-half. Dig a bit deep, though, and there is – statistically at least – likely to be movement in this key position.
Looking at all nine World Cups is instructive: the average age of a starting Wales scrum-half was 26 years and four months. It should also be added that not one of those players was in their thirties. Household names like Rob Howley, Dwayne Peel, Mike Phillips and Gareth Davies all wore the Welsh No9 shirt at the height of their powers – in their twenties.
When trying to pinpoint, Inspector Clouseau-style admittedly, how the trend affects the suitors to the jersey shirt for France in 2023, you would assuage that Rhys Webb – 35 two months after the jamboree in France ends, and Gareth Davies – 33 a month before the competition starts have the odds stacked against them. For all intents and purposes, they are fighting against the dying light.
Further evidence shows that at the recent World Cup in 2019, the oldest starting scrum-half in the knockout stages was Australia’s Will Genia at 31. That’s not to say it’s impossible. Ageing scrum-halves to have started at World Cups include Fabien Galthie and George Gregan, who were 34 in 2003 and 2007 respectively, while Agustin Pichot was a whipper-snapper at 33 in ’07 and Fourie du Preez 33 in 2015.
But you have to do some deep excavation to find exceptions to the rule. Test rugby, especially in its current guise, is a young man’s game. One man who had his share of thrills and spills at the World Cup with Wales was Robert Jones. He played in three tournaments, the first as a fresh-faced 21-year-old in 1987 in New Zealand where Wales finished in third place.
The Trebanos-born British and Irish Lion agreed that the gifted trio of Webb, Davies and Tomos Williams means the Welsh cup runneth over in the next 18 months. But by the time Pivac’s squad is crossing La Manche, these two elder statesmen could have departed and Wales would be down to a then 28-year-old Williams for the World Cup.
“If you look forward to 2023 the trio mentioned will still be desperate to play for Wales in France, especially as this season has passed them,” said Jones to RugbyPass. “But past the Lions next summer, the majority would say Tomos Williams is front runner for the next World Cup.”
Of the next wave to battle it out with Williams, the progress of Kieran Hardy with the Scarlets has been noted by rugby’s cognoscenti. Just 24, he has rough edges to soften, but after spending the season in the Championship with Jersey, he has raised eyebrows with his raw pace and try-scoring threat. Indeed, the pick of his eight tries this season was a 70-metre individual effort against Zebre that had shades of the prolific form Davies enjoyed in the 2013/14 season at a similar age.
“Kieran has looked impressive,” continued Jones. “He has grown in confidence as the season has progressed and has been putting his hand up. Stephen Jones would know him well from the Scarlets and he’s the right age to really flourish in France.
“I would imagine Wayne Pivac will be keen on bringing him in at some point to have a look at him. What further benefits him is the fact departing Scarlets scrum-half Aled Davies has made himself unavailable by heading for London with Saracens for three years, so he has moved up the pecking order.”
The other player Jones reckoned should not to discounted is Rhodri Williams. He has made such a telling impression at the Dragons this season, dovetailing with Sam Davies, and having just turned 27 he is becoming too polished to be discarded by Wales with a view to the next World Cup.
“When Rhodri first came on the scene he reminded me of his father Alan, who I played with at Swansea. He was a very rounded, intelligent scrum-half. In fact, Rhod seems to have a little bit more balance and control on his game than his dad. Being out in Bristol may have hampered him a little but since coming back to the Dragons, he has been playing really well. You can’t write guys like that off. The more responsibility he gets, the more mature he will get.”
In recent years, Welsh scrum-halves often come through in their mid-twenties. Howley got the lion’s share of his caps between 25 and 31. Phillips had to wait for Warren Gatland to come in and usurp Peel at 25 and Webb consequently had to play the waiting game with Phillips, so there is a trend.
“June 4 marks the 25th anniversary of the last Wales team to play in the old amateur era, a 1995 defeat to Ireland at the World Cup”
– @OwainJTJones delves back in time and learns what became of these Welsh stars of the past???https://t.co/zk63dqymKt
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) June 4, 2020
“Listen, the players these days are so professional and committed to the cause that you can’t write Rhys and Gareth off, but if you look a little deeper, there are players kicking their heels ready to step up,” continued Jones. “I watched Harry Randall quite a bit playing for England at U20 level but I know he’s qualified to play for Wales growing up in the Amman Valley. He’s small but very savvy. He puts his body on the line and is in a good place to learn with Bristol, playing with Welsh-qualified Callum Sheedy under Pat Lam.”
While Jones doesn’t know what Randall’s intentions are, the scrum-half is not captured by England and if the likes of Ross Moriarty, Nick Tompkins and Sam Moore are anything to go by, he could yet switch allegiance. Closer to home, much has been said about Harri Morgan, the 20-year-old who impressed as Wales’ starting No9 at last year’s U20s World Championships. “I’ve seen plenty of Harri at youth level and I know they think an awful lot of him at the Ospreys,” vouched Jones.
“He has had his injury problems in the last year, which has held him back, but he has got all the talent. What I would say is he is a very quiet individual and needs to improve his communication, which is a such a big part of any 9s game. With Rhys Webb coming back (to Ospreys) you’d expect him to be the main man, but you hope Harri will get more opportunities alongside Reuben Morgan-Williams who has just signed a new deal.”
Jones played in the amateur era where there were a glut of clubs and he does feel lack of opportunity does hold back Welsh No9s as there are only four regions. “There are only four starting spots, so it’s tricky. Playing at Bridgend, Swansea and Neath at the Premiership level is just not going to be a good enough standard. If these young guys can’t move the first-choice players you could see them choosing to look outside Wales to gain valuable playing experience, as Kieran did.”
In the short-term, though, Jones doesn’t see the Test level status-quo changing. “Along with Tomos, who I’ve mentioned, Gareth has scored some fantastic tries for Wales, especially the intercepts. There are parts of his game that could do with improvement, but at the elite end we have enough depth to switch players around depending on what we need.
“I’d say Rhys Webb is the most complete nine. He controls, he can run, his service is good and he is powerful. I also think his kicking game is pretty decent but the others have points of difference he hasn’t got. That is the beauty of rugby, really. In 2023, there could be a nine none of us have heard of yet, coming through as I guess I did in 1987.”
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best news and very helpful
4 Go to commentsA year ago Ireland and France looked impressive. In this 6N neither looked special. Both have lost good players, but more importantly teams have figured out how to shut them down. In particular the Irish loss to a rebuilding England and the home game struggle against a brave Scotland did nothing to prove that the Irish RWC result was undeserved. If the Scots can shut down the Irish attack, then SA can do so with interest. Rassie will have watched that game with confidence. Farrell is smart, and the Irish team is talented, so we should expect a more creative game plan in SA. But if all they bring is what they showed against Scotland then Ireland is going to struggle against the Boks. It was a fun 6N tournament, but the win for Ireland was as much about weak competition as about Irish brilliance. It was mostly due to France being off the boil, Wales and Italy not being contenders, and Scotland being a home game. England are looking much better, but “much better” should not be enough to topple a team that is supposed by some to be The Best in the World. I hope that Ireland can bump it up a notch or two for the Bok tour. A year ago they were fantastic to watch. It would be great to see that again.
24 Go to commentsLooking forward to the Wallabies being competitive again. No doubt that Joe can get them back on track.
1 Go to commentsThanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.
42 Go to commentsGreat story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
42 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
24 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
42 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
42 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
4 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to comments