Scrum-halves in their 30s don't usually start at a World Cup, so jockeying for No9 has started in Wales for France 2023
With rugby stuck in paralysis, many scribes and fans alike are casting their eyes forward to the next World Cup, something you expect Wayne Pivac and Wales are doing with the benefit of dizzying amounts of unplanned thinking time. France 2023 is still a distant speck in the distance and one position the Welsh appear well-stocked in at the moment is scrum-half. Dig a bit deep, though, and there is – statistically at least – likely to be movement in this key position.
Looking at all nine World Cups is instructive: the average age of a starting Wales scrum-half was 26 years and four months. It should also be added that not one of those players was in their thirties. Household names like Rob Howley, Dwayne Peel, Mike Phillips and Gareth Davies all wore the Welsh No9 shirt at the height of their powers – in their twenties.
When trying to pinpoint, Inspector Clouseau-style admittedly, how the trend affects the suitors to the jersey shirt for France in 2023, you would assuage that Rhys Webb – 35 two months after the jamboree in France ends, and Gareth Davies – 33 a month before the competition starts have the odds stacked against them. For all intents and purposes, they are fighting against the dying light.
Further evidence shows that at the recent World Cup in 2019, the oldest starting scrum-half in the knockout stages was Australia’s Will Genia at 31. That’s not to say it’s impossible. Ageing scrum-halves to have started at World Cups include Fabien Galthie and George Gregan, who were 34 in 2003 and 2007 respectively, while Agustin Pichot was a whipper-snapper at 33 in ’07 and Fourie du Preez 33 in 2015.
But you have to do some deep excavation to find exceptions to the rule. Test rugby, especially in its current guise, is a young man’s game. One man who had his share of thrills and spills at the World Cup with Wales was Robert Jones. He played in three tournaments, the first as a fresh-faced 21-year-old in 1987 in New Zealand where Wales finished in third place.
The Trebanos-born British and Irish Lion agreed that the gifted trio of Webb, Davies and Tomos Williams means the Welsh cup runneth over in the next 18 months. But by the time Pivac’s squad is crossing La Manche, these two elder statesmen could have departed and Wales would be down to a then 28-year-old Williams for the World Cup.
“If you look forward to 2023 the trio mentioned will still be desperate to play for Wales in France, especially as this season has passed them,” said Jones to RugbyPass. “But past the Lions next summer, the majority would say Tomos Williams is front runner for the next World Cup.”
Of the next wave to battle it out with Williams, the progress of Kieran Hardy with the Scarlets has been noted by rugby’s cognoscenti. Just 24, he has rough edges to soften, but after spending the season in the Championship with Jersey, he has raised eyebrows with his raw pace and try-scoring threat. Indeed, the pick of his eight tries this season was a 70-metre individual effort against Zebre that had shades of the prolific form Davies enjoyed in the 2013/14 season at a similar age.
“Kieran has looked impressive,” continued Jones. “He has grown in confidence as the season has progressed and has been putting his hand up. Stephen Jones would know him well from the Scarlets and he’s the right age to really flourish in France.
“I would imagine Wayne Pivac will be keen on bringing him in at some point to have a look at him. What further benefits him is the fact departing Scarlets scrum-half Aled Davies has made himself unavailable by heading for London with Saracens for three years, so he has moved up the pecking order.”
The other player Jones reckoned should not to discounted is Rhodri Williams. He has made such a telling impression at the Dragons this season, dovetailing with Sam Davies, and having just turned 27 he is becoming too polished to be discarded by Wales with a view to the next World Cup.
“When Rhodri first came on the scene he reminded me of his father Alan, who I played with at Swansea. He was a very rounded, intelligent scrum-half. In fact, Rhod seems to have a little bit more balance and control on his game than his dad. Being out in Bristol may have hampered him a little but since coming back to the Dragons, he has been playing really well. You can’t write guys like that off. The more responsibility he gets, the more mature he will get.”
In recent years, Welsh scrum-halves often come through in their mid-twenties. Howley got the lion’s share of his caps between 25 and 31. Phillips had to wait for Warren Gatland to come in and usurp Peel at 25 and Webb consequently had to play the waiting game with Phillips, so there is a trend.
“June 4 marks the 25th anniversary of the last Wales team to play in the old amateur era, a 1995 defeat to Ireland at the World Cup”
– @OwainJTJones delves back in time and learns what became of these Welsh stars of the past???https://t.co/zk63dqymKt
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) June 4, 2020
“Listen, the players these days are so professional and committed to the cause that you can’t write Rhys and Gareth off, but if you look a little deeper, there are players kicking their heels ready to step up,” continued Jones. “I watched Harry Randall quite a bit playing for England at U20 level but I know he’s qualified to play for Wales growing up in the Amman Valley. He’s small but very savvy. He puts his body on the line and is in a good place to learn with Bristol, playing with Welsh-qualified Callum Sheedy under Pat Lam.”
While Jones doesn’t know what Randall’s intentions are, the scrum-half is not captured by England and if the likes of Ross Moriarty, Nick Tompkins and Sam Moore are anything to go by, he could yet switch allegiance. Closer to home, much has been said about Harri Morgan, the 20-year-old who impressed as Wales’ starting No9 at last year’s U20s World Championships. “I’ve seen plenty of Harri at youth level and I know they think an awful lot of him at the Ospreys,” vouched Jones.
“He has had his injury problems in the last year, which has held him back, but he has got all the talent. What I would say is he is a very quiet individual and needs to improve his communication, which is a such a big part of any 9s game. With Rhys Webb coming back (to Ospreys) you’d expect him to be the main man, but you hope Harri will get more opportunities alongside Reuben Morgan-Williams who has just signed a new deal.”
Jones played in the amateur era where there were a glut of clubs and he does feel lack of opportunity does hold back Welsh No9s as there are only four regions. “There are only four starting spots, so it’s tricky. Playing at Bridgend, Swansea and Neath at the Premiership level is just not going to be a good enough standard. If these young guys can’t move the first-choice players you could see them choosing to look outside Wales to gain valuable playing experience, as Kieran did.”
In the short-term, though, Jones doesn’t see the Test level status-quo changing. “Along with Tomos, who I’ve mentioned, Gareth has scored some fantastic tries for Wales, especially the intercepts. There are parts of his game that could do with improvement, but at the elite end we have enough depth to switch players around depending on what we need.
“I’d say Rhys Webb is the most complete nine. He controls, he can run, his service is good and he is powerful. I also think his kicking game is pretty decent but the others have points of difference he hasn’t got. That is the beauty of rugby, really. In 2023, there could be a nine none of us have heard of yet, coming through as I guess I did in 1987.”
Comments on RugbyPass
This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
32 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
2 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
15 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
15 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
1 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
15 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
15 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
15 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
15 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to comments