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Leinster tipped to break France's Investec Champions Cup monopoly
By Jon Newcombe
Leinster have been installed as slight favourites to win the Investec Champions Cup in the eyes of the bookmakers after being paired with URC strugglers Edinburgh in the Round of 16 at the start of April.
The four-time champions are bidding to win the tournament for the first time since 2018, and at the same time end France’s Champions Cup monopoly. The Champions Cup trophy has been in the possession of the French since 2021.
Leo Cullen’s men have been placed in the ‘easier’ side of the draw, with a home tie against Edinburgh, who limped into the knockout stages, followed by another match at their Aviva Stadium fortress against either Harlequins or Sale Sharks, if they get there.
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Given home advantage, past results and their Champions Cup pedigree, Leinster will fancy their chances of beating either of those Gallagher PREM teams. But while the path to the semi-final appears to be relatively kind on paper, the last four is where Leinster’s credentials will be truly tested.
Glasgow Warriors will have to see off the Bulls and then the winner of Toulon vs Stormers if they are going to go deeper than they have ever been before in the tournament. However, they are playing with a real verve about them and proved their big-match mentality in overcoming the Bulls in the 2024 URC final.
Toulon are the ones of the quartet to have been there and done it, having claimed three titles in a row (2013-15). To date, no South African team have made it beyond the Champions Cup quarter-finals.
YOUR ROUND OF 16 MATCH UPS 🤩
The road to Bilbao becomes clearer…
Get your #InvestecChampionsCup Final tickets now ➡️ https://t.co/7FxmO4HTec pic.twitter.com/XFvpebWiKu
— Investec Champions Cup (@ChampionsCup) January 18, 2026
Looking at the other side of the draw, reigning champions Bordeaux-Begles are second favourites, and in some cases, joint favourites with Leinster, to win the Champions Cup.
As first seeds, they have been drawn against 16th seeds, Leicester, who won the tournament in 2001 and 2002.
After that, the winner will face the victor of the Toulouse vs Bristol tie, which has all the makings of being a classic. Toulouse have won the tournament a record six times, while Bristol are seeking their first title.
Reigning Gallagher PREM holders Bath are the English side with the best chance of winning the Champions Cup, according to the bookmakers, with league rivals and three-time European champions Saracens the visitors to The Rec in the Round of 16.
Northampton, who became the second English winners of the trophy after Bath when they beat Munster in the 2000 final, face familiar opponents in Castres.
The meeting at the start of April will be the 12th time Saints have played Castres at this level, making it their most common fixture in the competition.
The form guide would suggest two ‘derby’ quarter-finals in that half of the draw, with French duo, Bordeaux-Begles and Toulouse going head-to-head and an all-English affair between Bath and Northampton.
While the pool stages of the Investec Champions Cup have rightly been criticised because of weakened teams and lopsided scorelines, looking at the Round of 16 draw you can’t help but think this is where the competition starts for real.
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