Analysis: Why this is the worst tactical kick in rugby and hurts every team that uses it
The basic premise of the territorial kick is trading possession for territory, giving the ball to the opposition but in a disadvantegous position in the field.
What qualifies as a ‘good’ kicking game has changed over the last 10 years as teams skew towards more contestable kicks at the expense of long-range drives that end up handing away possession easily for poor net gains.
The impact of poor kicking is rarely outlined and the players responsible aren’t universally criticised, yet the outcomes can be as adverse as knock-on’s or more visible errors, costing valuable field position or points, putting their own side in poor match situations.
The outdated long drive
What has become one of the worst kicks in rugby is the long hoof down the middle of the field, which achieves a lot of kick metres in the air but limited net gains as the opposition can often bring it back and set up play much closer.
Unless the kick is completed quickly after winning a turnover where the opposition has an empty backfield, it is usually a poor option.
The kicking team usually has no chance in regathering the ball, guaranteeing the opposition possession whilst they can regain a lot of the metres achieved through the air running it back on the ground.
Against the Crusaders, Bulls’ flyhalf Handre Pollard has possession on the edge of his own 22 following a kickoff and drives a long-range kick down the middle of the field.
Pollard’s long kick finds David Havili after nearly a 50-metre gain through the air, down to about 33-metres out from the opposition tryline. On the face of it, it seems like a good kick.
However, with a good carry or spreading the ball to the edge, the Crusaders could easily make back nearly 20-metres and set up play around halfway, taking back nearly half the territory easily.
From the 40-metre line Havili decides to return with his own kick, a contestable bomb of a shorter distance about 20-metres long with a supporting kick chaser.
Havili wins the aerial contest regaining his own kick and sets up a Crusaders possession 40-metres out from the Bulls try line.
Pollard’s original kick ends up with a net gain of just 21-metres and hands the ball over to the opposition, a poor result.
The key difference is Pollard’s long kick had a 0% chance of being recovered with no aerial contest possible whilst Havili’s counter bomb had a decent 50% chance with a one-on-one aerial contest. A long kick was countered by a contestable one, and the Crusaders setup great attacking field position.
Aside from Havili’s return serve, the best case scenario for Pollard’s kick is the Crusaders’ kick returner coughs up the ball in a tackle around halfway (a low % outcome).
The most likely outcome is the Crusaders’ setting up a ruck on halfway and beginning to attack, with the Bulls trading possession for a 30-metre net gain on territory.
Here is the realisation most top sides have made – kicking to win a net gain of 30-metres with a 0% or extremely low chance of getting the ball back is an inferior option to kicking a contestable ball just 20-metres with a 50% chance of regaining possession.
Over time, you win a fair share of these opportunities whilst only foregoing about 10-metres of extra territory to do so.
The better original option for the Bulls from the edge of their own 22 would be to hoist a contestable box kick or bomb that would land around their own 40-m with a decent chance to get it back with a good kick-chase.
In this situation, the Bulls did have a chance to get the ball back around the 40-m line on Havili’s return kick, but it was an unplanned aerial contest with their halfback Andre Riaan Warner, instead of a specialist jumper that could’ve been planned on their own contestable kick.
The Bulls win a turnover less than a minute later and Pollard attempts the same long-driving kick landing in almost the exact same spot.
George Bridge (11) picks up possession and senses the opportunity to counter-attack on the left edge where the Bulls have just three defenders across half the width of the field.
Bridge slips the first defender’s tackle and wins back even more territory than the best-case scenario for the Bulls. Unfortunately for the home side, it ends up much more than that.
He links with Goodhue on the Bulls 40-metre line, and he continues the movement by finding Mitchell Dunshea who scores in the corner, the ultimate worst-case result for Pollard’s poor kick – conceding a kick return try.
Against the All Blacks in November, Ben Youngs (9) from the safety of the 22 tries to go long but fails to find touch, keeping the ball in play.
The ball finds Damian McKenzie (15) on the full next to the sideline, with no pressure, who finds Beauden Barrett (10) back towards the middle. The box illustrates where a potential contestable kick would have landed.
Barrett finds a crease and gets upfield on the kick return, finding his way all way down to 45-metre out from England’s line, where a contest would have been yet the All Blacks didn’t have to, taking possession in the same position without having to compete for it.
The next phase Damian McKenzie throws a ball around the corner to Ben Smith sparking a potential scoring opportunity but the last pass is missed.
This time Youngs doesn’t have the safety of the 22 but still sends it as long as possible, instead of kicking a contestable high ball for Jack Nowell.
Liam Williams (15), one of the best aerial fullbacks in the game, catches the ball without any bother and is able to eat up the metres on the return.
He ends up about only a metre in front of where a contestable kick would have been, and Wales have possession in good field position to attack from.
England are in the same defensive position they would be in had Youngs kicked shorter, but they don’t have the same opportunity to regain the ball.
Handre Pollard and Ben Youngs are both regarded as smart ‘tactical kickers’ yet use this kick, much like many others without realising it is poor strategically. Australian and South African Super Rugby sides also suffer from over-kicking long and giving up possession for limited net gains instead of continually competing for the ball with shorter kicks.
The bottom line – if the kick is not creating chances to compete for possession it is probably costing you.
Sean O’Brien ruled out of the World Cup:
Comments on RugbyPass
I like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
8 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
8 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
8 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
8 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to comments