Who's on the plane? The last Lions squad prediction before Warren Gatland finally announces the real one
Sometime in the next 24 hours Warren Gatland will name 37 players who will make up his British & Irish Lions squad to tour New Zealand in June and July. Here are Lee Calvert’s predictions as to what those names will be*.
Props
The Six Nations was dominated by three packs: England, Ireland and France. Unless the Lions eligibility rules have changed significantly, the French lads are ruled out, so expect the props to be mainly hailing from the other two. Mako Vunipola is a shoo-in at loosehead, as is Tadgh Furlong on the other side. After that, the picture becomes less clear. The choices are many: England’s Joe Marler and Dan Cole, Ireland’s Jack McGrath, Scotland’s WP Nel (if fit) and Wales’s Rob Evans and Samson Lee all have a shout. Word on the street is that Gatland has been impressed by young England tyro Kyle Sinckler’s pace and impact in his fledgling career.
On the Plane: Mako Vunipola, Tadgh Furlong, Jack McGrath, Rob Evans, Dan Cole, Kyle Sinckler.
Hookers
Fairly easy picks here, with the likely shock (if you can call it that) being that the England captain Dylan Hartley will miss out. Hartley keeps his England place because he’s captain, not because he’s the best hooker – that title is clearly Jamie George’s. Ken Owens had a huge Six Nations for Wales, Rory Best will bring experience and Scotland’s hookers are rubbish.
On the plane: Ken Owens, Jamie George, Rory Best
Locks
Bringing four national teams together means added quality and this is most evident in the second row. England players alone could arguably take all the tour spots and very few could make an argument against it on form alone. But Gatland loves Alun Wyn Jones in a very real way because of his talent and experience and there is no conceivable situation where he does not tour.
But the list of names and their form and class is dizzying and some seriously good players will be left at home: Maro Itoje, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, George Kruis, Iain Henderson, Donnacha Ryan, Devin Toner, Alun Wyn Jones, Jonny Gray are all worthy. That’s ten names yet only five will go on tour. Gatland will need the perfect mix of grunt, power, dynamism and savvy to match the towering All Black engine room, for this reason, the mix will lean towards more mobile, all-rounder locks.
On the Plane: Maro Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, Joe Launchbury, George Kruis, Iain Henderson
Back Row
Another area where Gatland will have spent many hours deciding which top player to leave out. The back row will be based around two definite starters: Sam Warburton, who is odds-on to be captain, and Billy Vinupola, the wrecking ball carrier. Beyond those two there are again a litany of quality names to chew over: Scotland’s judo hand-off merchant Hamish Watson, Ireland’s mouthy disrupter Peter O’Mahoney, powersmash runner CJ Stander, wise-headed Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien. England’s unsung hero Chris Robshaw, big lump James Haskell, Wales’ talented breakaway Justin Tipuric and the simply outstanding Taulupe Faletau.
Ultimately it will be down to the balance Gatland is looking for, and he will want mix of power, craft and impact off the bench. Sadly this means that Chris Robshaw will miss out again, just as he did in 2013.
On the plane: Sam Warburton, Billy Vunipola, Peter O’Mahoney, CJ Stander, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau, Sean O’Brien
[rugbypass-ad-banner id=”1473306980″]
Scrum Half
Easiest selection area of the lot for Gatland, with the two front runners Conor Murray and Rhys Webb miles ahead of those next off the rank. Only question is who the third name will be and most money is on Ben Youngs or Greig Laidlaw. The latter would be a good shout as midweek captain.
On the plane: Conor Murray, Rhys Webb, Greig Laidlaw
Outside Half
Again, Jonny Sexton and Owen Farrell pick themselves. After that it comes down to whether Warren takes a risk with someone like Finn Russell or George Ford, or sticks with what he knows in Dan Biggar. Knowing the Kiwi coach, he will not like the defensive frailties and unpredictability of either Russell of Ford.
On the plane: Jonny Sexton, Owen Farrell, Dan Biggar
Centres
Midfield is perhaps where the Lions options are weakest. There have been some flashes of class from the options available, but no one has been consistently outstanding either in terms of form or experience. Ireland’s Robbie Henshaw is a cert, as is England’s Jonathan Joseph, after that it is all a little muddy and not helped by a number of Scottish centres being injured and the talented Gary Ringrose of Ireland not convincing entirely at this level so far. However, the principles of Warrenball dictate that Gatland loves big lads, which may explain some of the whispers up here that England’s RL convert Ben Te’o is a name under serious consideration.
On the plane: Robbie Henshaw, Jonathan Joseph, Ben Te’o, Gary Ringrose
Wings and Fullbacks
Standout performers on the wing and at fullback in the Six Nations were thin on the ground. George North was good when he was in the game, plus his record and Warren’s previous relationship with him means he is nailed on. Elliot Daly was outstanding for England and can handily also cover centre; Liam Williams was similar in form for Wales and can also play fifteen and Stuart Hogg won the player of the tourmanent at fullback for Scotland. England’s Anthony Watson and Jack Nowell are in with a shout as is Scotland’s Tommy Seymour, who was in red hot form up to Christmas but has tailed off a bit since.
The big question is, will Gatland take Leigh Halfpenny? The France-based Wales fullback is a perennial favourite of the coach, but his form has been wretched to middling for club and country with even his trusted dead-eyed boot going astray off the tee more than usual. Is he a better bet than either Watson, Seymour or Nowell at this stage? Many may not think so, but I reckon Gatland will stick with him again.
On the plane: George North, Elliot Daly, Liam Williams, Stuart Hogg, Leigh Halfpenny.
* This is my best guess at what we think Gatland will do, not necessarily an endorsement of these choices. Be sure to pop back after the announcement to point and laugh at the folly of my soothsaying.
Watch every game of The Lions Tour NZ live on rugbypass.com, home of the best online rugby coverage including news, highlights, previews & reviews, live scores, and more!
Comments on RugbyPass
Good to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
17 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
7 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
17 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
17 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
17 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
17 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
17 Go to comments