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The odd stat that all World Cup quarter-final losers had in common
Each of the four Rugby World Cup quarter-finals provided absorbing and close contests as the top four sides clashed on one side and the rest on the other of the draw.
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Ireland versus New Zealand and South Africa versus France have gone down as the best quarter-finals of all time, with a combined five points deciding the two epic contests.
However, all of the losers over the weekend had one thing in common. X user Just Doc noted that the team with the most handling errors lost all four contests.
Handling errors made in the #RWC2023 Quarter-Finals:
🇫🇷 11
🇿🇦 8🇨🇮 8
🇳🇿 1🇫🇯 8
🏴 3🏴 12
🇦🇷 10— Just Doc 🏉🎯 (@Doc_Torio) October 16, 2023
New Zealand were able to overcome two yellow cards and 20 minutes of being down a man in part due to their execution levels, only making one handling error in the entire contest.
Ireland and France were plagued with uncharacteristic and unforced dropped balls at times.
Ireland No 8 Caelan Doris spilling a goal line drop out after Ronan Kelleher was held up over the line was one crucial turning point, while France prop Cyril Baille tried to pick up and throw a wayward pass from Antoine Dupont that ended in a fastbreak try to Cheslin Kolbe.
While likely a coincidence, errors in knockout games can come with big momentum swings that decide contests with fine margins.
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Whilst the two most successful World Cup nations making the semi-finals might not surprise anyone, analyst Simon Gleave detailed the historic nature of the quarter-final results on X.
Three of the top five most winningest sides over the cycle making the semi-finals wasn’t new, however this was the first time that the top two nations in win percentage failed to make it into the semi-finals.
Ireland and France made history by bowing out despite being the most successful sides between World Cups.
As usual, 3 of the top-5 teams in the World Cup cycle have reached the #RugbyWorldCup semi-finals. It only didn't happen in 2007.
However, BOTH of the top-2 have failed to reach the semis for the first time in the pro-era.#RWC2023 #NZL #RSA #ENG #ARG pic.twitter.com/ySmODgekfI
— Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) October 16, 2023
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Ireland’s 28-24 loss to the All Blacks created unwanted history on the level of the 2007 All Blacks who were stunned by France 20-18 in the quarter-finals.
Those two teams are the only teams to not make the semi-finals after holding the highest win rate against the other top nine countries.
☘️Ireland are only the 2nd team to exit a #RugbyWorldCup at the quarter-final stage after entering with the highest win percentage against the top-9 since the previous World Cup.
🇳🇿New Zealand (2007) is the other.
Only 3 of the pro-era World Cups have been won by the #1 team.
— Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) October 15, 2023
Argentina, who won just eight of 30 Tests over the four-year period, became the seventh side in World Cup history to make the semi-finals after winning less than 50 per cent of their games.
It is the third time Los Pumas have done so, adding 2023 to their list of making the top four with less than a 50 per cent winning rate along with 2007 and 2015.
England also joined them as the eighth side in history after beating Fiji to qualify after registering 14 wins from 30 Tests over the cycle.
ALL pro-era #RugbyWorldCup semi-finalists with less than a 50% win rate against 🇦🇷🇦🇺🏴🇫🇷☘️🇳🇿🏴🇿🇦🏴 in the World Cup cycle:
🇫🇷France 2003
🇦🇷Argentina 2007
🏴England 2007
🏴Wales 2011
🇦🇷Argentina 2015
🇿🇦South Africa 2019
🇦🇷Argentina 2023
The winners of 🏴England v 🇫🇯Fiji 2023— Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) October 15, 2023
Argentina and England can take inspiration from the 2019 Springboks who are also on the list, who managed to win the entire tournament despite winning less than half of their games during the cycle.
🇿🇦South Africa (2019) is the only pro-era #RugbyWorldCup winner which was not ranked in the top-3 win percentages against the current Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams (bar Italy) in the 4 years going into the World Cup.
This year's top-3
☘️Ireland
🇫🇷France
🇦🇺New Zealand— Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) October 15, 2023
Comments on RugbyPass
Good summation Ned. Agree the Canes were out-muscled for once (except at the scrum!) by a focused Brumbies outfit. Tua deserves consideration for higher honors after the way he humbled Jordie and the Canes defense. Thankfully, his lack of eligibility for Oz keeps him from Joe’s plans. While I also agree the injuries affected the Canes performance, some players seemed to lack focus and intensity for this match. Perhaps after the Blues demolished the Brumbies, they thought it was going to be easy? A good reminder that any slip up in preparation can have a big affect on the result. Brumbies deserved that win.
1 Go to commentsKarl Dixon should never have been appointed this fixture, absolute disgrace, He’s not much of a referee anyway, didn't have the balls to send his mate care off
5 Go to commentsBrilliant article! Harry of 8/9
1 Go to comments‘UK athletes' have been in the NFL from the start.
1 Go to commentsIt’s going to be Scott Barrett. He’s the coaches mate and captain of a previously elite team. Ardie a great option but scooter has worked with the coach and Ardie still as big a leader as needed.
23 Go to commentsI commend Colin Scotts bio All Balls. He was the first Aussie to make it to NFL. But he was poached and did a full apprenticeship at the University of Hawaii. He was 130kgs surfed played 1st grade cricket etc. big guy by normal but not NFL standards and a top athlete. Even then the nfl were picking up Tongans and Samoans for their natural size and explosive power. They want explosive power not cardio from the big boys so a guy like Taniela Tupou would have been good if picked up young enough. He has fast twitch and they’d bulk the little lad up and give him something to do. soccer teams set up academies and look for Over Sara’s talent eg Messi was at Barcelona since a teenager and harry kewell went to Leeds as a teenager like 16 or something.
11 Go to commentsThe article alludes to the fact that this isn’t about picking a captain. But picking a great captain. So who would make for a great All Black captain - not just an obvious or safe shoo-in? I’m not sure Ardie’s the guy and Barret doesn’t stand out either.
23 Go to commentsI guess we may all agree on the fact, that the ABs and Boks are the two in contest for No 1 in rugby history (the triple-A sort of) …. the Wallabies, England and France are the next tier, with Ireland being the new kid in town (AA) …. in my view it makes little sense creating imaginary competitions (unless you have too much time to waste)
45 Go to commentsWhat a joke. Total joke and the pundits commentating, all of whom know a bit about the game, could barely disguise their contempt. Reaching for the card then pulling back when he realised a red card would carry further match suspensions is simply not his decision to make. A clear and obvious influence on the outcome of this match and indeed, the championship path.
5 Go to commentsI like the idea, in NZ the Ranfurly Shield and NPC coexist, both having their own bragging rights. The World Cup would be the pinnacle, but the competition and travels of these trophies would be interesting.
45 Go to commentsDon’t worry Sonny bill Williams leave that awkward situation about the curfew in the pass whoever it was it doesn’t matter its no big deal we back our All Blacks through the storm and the thunder until we see the Sun light again.
42 Go to commentsWho listens to this retard? He was a massive liability as a player but obviously a media sensation
42 Go to commentsI’m not surprised by such ‘virtue signalling’ by Sonny Boy. Butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth. He’s such a pious Islamic muppet, imo.
42 Go to commentsI’ve actually never heard of the guy (then I don’t watch League as it is boring). But if he is good enough.. then good luck to him. If not, well, he can always return to league.
2 Go to commentsIt is pretty clear that by almost any measure that NZ are a more successful rugby nation than South Africa. Quite aside from the distasteful events during the last RWC final. NZ lead SA in all significant measurements.
45 Go to commentsDickson went to his pocket for a card, saw who it was, changed his mind and spoke at length to TMO. One angle clearly shows Care diving over a Saints player to kill the ball. 1st yellow, reason given for not Red was player was falling backwards. He was only falling backwards after contact with Lawes. Graham try should have stood. Mitchell did not have both hands on the ball, ball went forward from a Saints boot dragging over it. 2 intentional knock-on's. One of which had an overlap on the outside. If Quins are happy to win by intentional foul play, then it does not say much for them. Would appear to be a bad day for Karl Dickson, also for the RFU in appointing a Ref who spent 8 years as a player at one of the clubs.
5 Go to commentsLet’s not forget about Ardie Savea just yet.
8 Go to commentsThe URC and the Euro Championscup can’t run at the same time, basically dilutes both competitions.
2 Go to comments“While Sotutu should start at No.8 for the All Blacks against England, but it’s only in that arena that he can prove just how good he really is.” And that my friends is where simply hasnt shone despite multiple opportunities. Even in this performance you can see what did him in in the test arena..he almost always still runs at the opposition almost ramrod upright making him easier to stop than it should be.
8 Go to commentsShould have been 0-0 and a message from SR CEO to both teams - “don’t worry about turning up next year”.
5 Go to comments