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The Aki midfield puzzle, Sexton's double omen and restrained quarter-final expectation as Ireland head to Tokyo
Samoa were viewed as a potential banana skin for Ireland in their final Pool A pool match, but that anxiety was misplaced as Joe Schmidt’s side made light work of the Islanders even though they had to play 51 minutes of the match a man down due to Bundee Aki’s red card.
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The Samoans were one of the poorest sides at the 20-team tournament, their efforts corrupted by frequent indiscipline.
They signed off from Japan having conceded an onerous 50 penalties in four matches, seven yellow cards and one red. No wonder they never threaten to be a problem to the pool’s leading three sides.
Their plight, though, will be of no concern to Ireland as they head back to Tokyo after a trip south from Yokohama that included stopping off points in Shizuoka, Kobe and Fukuoka.
The Irish are back in the quarter-finals and while they have only progressed as a runner-up and not as the pool winner they were expected to be, they arrive into this latest last-eight appearance in a far better state of health than four years ago when they were pool winners decimated by injuries.
(Continue reading below…)
The jury is still out on the reliability of their current rugby, though. Their 2019 form simply hasn’t been anywhere near the stellar heights of 2018. But they will be relieved they will likely deal from a full deck with the potentially suspended Aki the only player of their 31 unavailable for selection to face New Zealand on Saturday.
Aki’s red creates midfield puzzle
Bundee Aki’s chances of beating the red card rap on Monday in Tokyo following his sending-off in Fukuoka appear very slim if the pattern of disciplinary hearings at the World Cup are anything to go by.
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All five players previously handed a straight red card – four high tackles and one tip tackle – were handed suspensions that had a six-week entry point. Four were reduced by 50 per cent to a three-week punishment, with the suspension for Argentina’s Tomas Lavanini set at four.
Any similar suspension would rule Aki out of the remainder of Ireland’s campaign. Only Samoan Ed Fidow, who was sent off against Scotland for receiving two yellow cards, managed to beat a ban.
This was more like it from Ireland with some of their key players performing excellently in making light work of Samoa and the blow that was Bundee Aki's red card https://t.co/GQ4gQCBhQr
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 12, 2019
Aki’s likely absence will leave Joe Schmidt with a midfield riddle to solve. Ever since he became eligible under the three-year residency rule to play for Ireland, Aki – red-carded by Nic Berry who previously red-carded USA’s John Quill versus England – has been a mainstay in the starting XV.
He has worn the No12 shirt in 23 of Ireland’s last 28 matches. In the five games he missed, Chris Farrell (twice), Stuart McCloskey (twice) and Robbie Henshaw filled the inside centre berth.
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Farrell would appear to be next in line for the 12 slot, having formed a partnership with Garry Ringrose in the defeat to Japan at the World Cup and for the August warm-up versus Italy.
However, with Henshaw, the regular pre-Aki era No12 selection, now back in harness following injury, there is every chance he will assume Aki’s role and link up with either Farrell or Ringrose wearing the 13 jersey.
The curveball, though, was how rusty Henshaw looked versus Samoa at 13, his struggles capped by his wayward pass being the cause for possession being lost in the lead-up to Aki’s carded high tackle on Ulupano Seuteni.
The legendary Brian O’Driscoll’s favoured Ireland midfield – even when Aki has been available – is Henshaw/Ringrose. ‘The partnership for me is – if both players are fit – Garry Ringrose and Robbie Henshaw,” he told RugbyPass before the World Cup.
“It’s partly because of their understanding of playing together provincially as well (at Leinster)…Robbie and Garry are the starting partnership, all things being equal.”
With New Zealand in Ireland’s sights, it could well be time to reprise a centre partnership that has been mothballed at Test level.
The IRFU are not happy. #RWC2019 https://t.co/n7XpSu9K9l
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 13, 2019
Sexton’s double has precedent to be repeated
Johnny Sexton scoring tries for Ireland is a rare sight. Before Saturday’s double, the outhalf talisman had scored just two tries in his last 42 Test matches under Joe Schmidt, a barren run stretching back to a try in the opening 2014 June tour match versus Argentina in Resistencia.
Encouragingly, though, there is a precedent that his double in Fukuoka could be immediately backed up. When he scored twice versus Italy in Dublin in March 2014, he popped up the following week in Paris to grab another pair of tries and help Ireland clinch the Six Nations title win a win over France.
Pack’s ball carrying still needs improvement
Ball carrying by the pack is the golden currency regarding the potency of this Irish side. It was the shortcoming that devastatingly let them down in defeat to Japan, their starting eight managing just 63 metres off 53 carries. That was far too little.
Fielding a pack where the only change was Tadhg Beirne starting at blindside for Peter O’Mahony, they collectively managed 93 metres off 78 carries versus Samoa with tighthead Tadhg Furlong standing out with his 27 metres from seven carries.
Ireland, though, were still some way short of the peak aggressiveness that was achieved in the win 11 months ago versus New Zealand. That auspicious victory featured a 148-metre gain off 84 carries, the sort of eye-bulging numbers likely be required if World Cup history is to be made next weekend in Tokyo.
Look what might happen when it’s least expected
Boom or bust are the traditional emotions associated with Irish rugby, with the middle ground of a more balanced perspective all too often ignored. Look at this 2019 campaign.
Seemingly, heaps of money was backed on Ireland to win the World Cup following their comprehensive first match dismissal of Scotland, emotions that quickly visited the opposite end of the spectrum six days later when Ireland were ambushed by Japan to spark fears they would fail to make the quarter-finals.
Now they are safely qualified on the back of Saturday’s trouncing of Samoa, they are preparing for a knock stage match that intriguingly won’t be accompanied by the unsettling, giddy level of optimism that existed in 2011 and 2015.
When Ireland got to the quarter-finals four and eight years ago on the back of respective impressive round four pool wins over Italy in Dunedin and France in Cardiff, there was huge expectation that Wales and Argentina would also be brushed aside and Ireland would qualify for the semi-finals.
Those hopes were entirely misplaced, Ireland failing to live up to the favourites tag which is why next Saturday’s billing as underdogs versus defending champions New Zealand could perhaps work in their favour.
Ireland aren’t expected to win… which is the very reason why they could actually go on and win.
The difference an accurate lineout makes
Ireland’s lineout accuracy is a constant source of interest. When it goes wrong, it has the capacity to seriously hinder them but when it is on the money, it is a vehicle that can generate invaluable momentum, particularly at the maul.
A clean sheet with 16 throws in Fukuoka augurs well for the quarter-finals, especially the variety in the jumpers used by Rory Best off his 10 throws and Niall Scannell off his six. Iain Henderson fetched seven, Tadhg Beirne three, James Ryan and Peter O’Mahony two each, with CJ Stander and Jean Kleyn catching one apiece.
That should help keep the Kiwis busy in the analysis room in the coming days.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Says much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
4 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
23 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
10 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
78 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
23 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
10 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
3 Go to commentsThe Hurricanes are good, especially with a decent coach now. However, let’s be real, the Crusaders and Chiefs are clearly a good degree weaker without the players they’ve lost overseas now. The Canes lost one player. It’s also why the aussie teams ‘seem’ to be stronger.
9 Go to commentsOr you could develop your own players instead of constantly taking from the SH competition and weakening it in the process? With all the player and financial resources these unions have compared to SH countries you’d think they could manage that, or is weakening the SH comps and their national sides an added bonus? Probably.
3 Go to commentsNot so fast Aaron, we might need you in black yet lol. God knows he’d be a lot less nerve-racking than hot and (very) cold players like Perofeta. It’s really a shame Reuben Love isn’t playing 10, we’ve got enough 15 options.
4 Go to commentsAnd those from the NH still seem to be puzzled (and delighted) why NZ’s depth isn’t what it once was. Over 600 NZ players overseas, that’s insane. This sort of deal is why Super Rugby coaches have admitted they struggle now to find enough quality to fill out their squads.
6 Go to commentsArticle intéressant ! La question devrait régulièrement se poser pour les jeunes français originaires de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Wallis-et-Futuna et de Polynésie entre la Nouvelle-Zélande et la Métropole… Difficile pour la fédération française de rugby de se positionner : soit le choix est fait de dénicher les jeunes talents et de les faire venir très tôt en Métropole, au risque de les déraciner, soit on prend le risque de se les faire “piller” par les All Blacks qui, telle une araignée, essaye de récupérer tous les talents des îles du Pacifique… À la France de se défendre en développant l’aura du XV de France et des clubs français dans ses collectivités d’Outre-mer !
3 Go to commentsWrong bay. He needs to come to the REAL BAY which is Bay Of Plenty and have a crack at making the Chiefs.
3 Go to commentsIs Barrett going play full back??? They already have all the centers…
16 Go to commentsForgive my ignorance, I might not fully understand so would appreciate clarification: Didn’t the Bulls have to fly with three different carriers, paid for by the South African Rugby Union, whilst Edinburgh got a chartered flight sponsored by EPCR? Also, as far as I understand it South African teams don’t yet share in the revenue from the competition and are not allowed to host Semi-finals or Finals at home. Surely if everyone wants South Africans to “take the competition seriously” then they must make South Africans feel welcome, allow them to share in the revenue, and give them the same levels of access as the teams from the other countries. Just a reminder that South Africa has a large and passionate Rugby audience. Just by virtue of our teams being a part of these competitions means that more of us are likely to watch the knockout games, even if our teams haven’t qualified. It would be silly to alienate such a large audience by making them feel unwelcome.
23 Go to commentsFirst of all. This guy is very much behind the curve. All the bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning took place days ago already. Not adding anything to the topic other than more bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning. 🍼 Second of all, not one mention of the fact that South African teams can’t get home semi finals or finals. The tournament was undermined and devalued by the administrators. 🤡 Thirdly, football teams often have to juggle selections in mid week games, premier games, champions league games etc. and will from time to time prioritize certain titles over others. 🐒 And lastly FEK Neil, and anyone else for that matter, for insisting on telling teams how to manage themselves. If they make what is largely a business decision that suits them and doesn’t suit you - tough shite. 💩 It’s not rocket science as to why the Bulls did what they did. If this guy is too slow to figure it out (and is deliberately not mentioning one of the key reasons why) then he isn’t a journalist. He should join the rest of us pundit plebs in comments section. 🥴
23 Go to commentsSo the first door to knock on Rob is Parliament followed by HMRC. The Irish Revenue deliver a 40% tax relief rebate on the HIGHEST EARNING TEN YEARS of every pro Irish rugby players contract earnings at retirement. That goes a long way to both retaining their best talent and freeing up wages for marquee players. Who knows, if that had been in place in the UK, you might not have been able to poach Hoggy and Jonny Gray from Glasgow…!!!
3 Go to comments