Shizuoka was repeat of Cardiff 2015 for Sexton-less Ireland
Saturday was a shocker for Ireland at the World Cup, Joe Schmidt’s favourites losing 19-12 to World Cup hosts Japan despite taking an early 3-12 lead.
The stunning ambush highlighted how the Irish haven’t really developed a reliable RWC Plan B for when the all-important Johnny Sexton is unavailable.
Skipper Rory Best also went from last Sunday’s hero to this weekend’s zero in showing his age, being outplayed and being unable to provide the necessary leadership to prevent a punch-drunk Ireland from falling into arrears they never recovered from.
Their blunt attacking performance – which featured 58 scoreless minutes after two early tries harvested from kicks off penalty advantage – marked a devastating throwback to the horrible 1990s where Ireland used to be dreadfully inconsistent from week to week and prey to utterly deflating results versus lesser calibre outfits.
Rather than winning to endorse their RWC seeding as Pool A favourites, a status that was shaping up towards a quarter-final versus South Africa, Ireland are now awkwardly playing catch-up in a group where the ‘reward’ for finishing second is a quarter-final against defending champions New Zealand.
(Continue reading below…)
Here, RugbyPass sifts through the debris of an unforgettable day at Ecopa Stadium that has given Ireland a rugby hangover they would never have imagined having to deal with in a tournament they came into as the world’s No1 ranked side with ambitions of lifting the trophy
We told you so about the failed promise from 2015
You can’t say RugbyPass didn’t issue a grave warning about Ireland ahead of their fixture with Japan in Shizuoka. On Friday, we outlined how coach Schmidt was heading into a massive World Cup match having failed to live up to the promise made by his high-performance boss four years ago – that Ireland would not wind up going into a big game at the 2019 finals relying on an inexperienced outhalf starting at No10.
In the fall-out from the 2015 quarter-final humbling by Argentina, David Nucifora bemoaned how a lack of depth behind Sexton – Ian Madigan was making just his sixth Test start as a No10 against Los Pumas – had seriously undermined Ireland’s effort and this very mistake would not be repeated in the Far East.
Talk about nakedly not living up to your promise. In the 45 matches since the last World Cup before Ireland’s seismic ambush by Japan, Sexton has started on 28 occasions with another nine starts given to Paddy Jackson, the pivot unceremoniously sacked by the IRFU in 2018.
Ireland promised after 2015 they would not be caught winging it at the 2019 RWC with an inexperienced out-half starting at No10 in a big match in place of Johnny Sexton, but they have not delivered on that aim https://t.co/Y2QThUAiJW
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 27, 2019
That left crumbs of exposure for everyone else and with Joey Carbery, next best with six starts, injured since August and only making the Shizuoka bench, the treasured No10 jersey was placed in the hands of Jack Carty for only the second time ever.
Much like Madigan four years ago and also Eoin Reddan – then a complete rookie – being plunged into the heat of the 2007 World Cup at No9 against France in Paris in place of the overly experienced Peter Stringer, the inexperienced Carty was handed an onerous task that he hadn’t been sufficiently prepared for by his head coach.
In no way should Carty be solely blamed for the incredible Irish mishap that developed, as too many far more established players went missing in action. To Carty’s credit, it was his kicks off penalty advantage that created Ireland’s two early tries, but his overall game lacked the very necessary composure for them to build on a 12-3 advantage that really should have been 15-3.
In the opening minutes, Carty unwisely spurned three early points off the tee in front of the posts for a cross-kick that didn’t properly reach Keith Earls out wide. For a team whose philosophy is to build scoreboard pressure and hammer that advantage home, ignoring cheap points was a serious black mark.
Of course, Carty will only learn from the experience but it all comes back to Ireland not having a reliable Plan B when Sexton isn’t available to start. The fact that Carty wound up starting this crucial World Cup match having only ever previously started a warm-up friendly last month exposed the notion that Ireland had built across-the-board squad depth in the four years since England 2015. They hadn’t and the price they paid was enormous.
Diffusing the Murray aerial bomb
It was just six days ago that we were all marvelling the return of the Conor Murray aerial bomb, the scrum-half kicking on 14 occasions against Scotland and significantly influencing the pattern of the exchanges in Yokohama where Ireland collectively kicked on 39 occasions from the hand.
Against Japan, though, Ireland’s kicking rate tumbled to just 19 with Murray curiously only kicking twice from the hand in a radical change of plan where the preference seemed to be to channel as much as possible through rookie Carty rather than rely on a kicking tactic that Murray had honed to world-class perfection for years.
You would have thought that in a half-back combination that was starting for only its first time ever, Murray would have taken on more of the responsibility on himself to lead Ireland around the park. However, he was noticeably timid, running on just four occasions for a 16-metre gain in a match where he opted to pass a whopping 98 times.
His ineffectual contribution wasn’t helped by him falling foul of referee Angus Gardner. The three penalties Murray conceded offered Japan three shots at goal, two of which were converted for six points. Discipline was a general issue, even if it could be debated that the Australian official came down somewhat harder on Ireland than on the Japanese.
RugbyPass had noted in the build-up to Shizuoka that amid the hullabaloo surrounding their demolition of Scotland, one important statistic got lost in that noise – that Ireland had unusually come out on the wrong side of the penalty count for the first time in 10 matches in 2019.
They conceded seven penalties to Scotland’s six, evidence that suggested they needed to be on their guard against Japan. However, they fared even worse than last Sunday, losing out nine-six on this count and giving Yu Tamura shots at goal on a half-dozen occasions, four of which he converted for 12 points.
Stark lack of ball-carrying oomph
Ball-carrying statistics for Ireland’s starting pack were dwarfed by what Japan produced in a contest where the hosts clearly won the collisions and the gain line battles. The numbers were stark. Whereas Japan from No1 to No8 collectively made 84 runs to clock up a 174-metre gain, the lethargic Irish eight managed just 64 metres from 53 runs.
Nowhere was this anomaly as stark than in the front row. Ireland’s triumvirate of Cian Healy, Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong managed a paltry three metres from 11 carries, a figure easily eclipsed by the 57 metres the Japanese front row chipped in with off their 35 runs.
Kick off in 20 mins time in Shizuoka. ????
Follow our match centre here | https://t.co/fXGufjdkt9 pic.twitter.com/DFbcNn6KHG
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 28, 2019
Switching to the back row, Japan’s starting three clocked up 101 metres from 31 runs compared to Ireland’s 30 metres off 18 runs. All the more galling for the Irish was that Shizuoka represented an ‘improvement’ in the numbers for Peter O’Mahony and Josh van der Flier. Against the Scots, that pair made just four metres off seven runs whereas they managed 12 metres off eight runs versus Japan.
Truth be told, though, they were outclassed in this carrying department, a weakness that highlighted just now much Ireland are missing the ballast of the likes of Sean O’Brien and Dan Leavy who didn’t make the squad due to injury.
The curse of playing the hosts
Another curious situation RugbyPass highlighted during the build-up was how Ireland had in the past made a pig’s ear of previous encounters with World Cup hosts. Australia in Sydney in 1987, Scotland in Edinburgh in 1991 and France in Paris in 2007 had all given the Irish a dusting and Japan now join this dubious list.
The result need not be fatal to Irish hopes of reaching a first-ever semi-final at the ninth attempt. Australia showed in 2011 how possible it is to bounce back, responding to their game two defeat to Ireland in Auckland by recovering to reach the last four and ultimately doing better in that tournament than the Irish who were eliminated at the quarter-final stage.
However, Ireland don’t have an encouraging track record of shaking off desperate pool form. In 2007, after they came within a TMO decision of being ambushed by Georgia in the dying minutes in Bordeaux, they went on to lose to France and Argentina and suffered an exit that had Eddie O’Sullivan out of a job six months later after an underwhelming follow-up Six Nations.
With Schmidt having long-since announced he will be stepping down at the end of this World Cup to be succeeded by assistant Andy Farrell, there at least won’t be any speculation about the coach’s position on the back of this terrible result.
However, after a chastening Saturday where Ireland went a miserable 58 minutes without a score and were decisively beaten 10-0 coming down the last-quarter finishing straight, the New Zealander now has it all to do if the Irish really are to create that elusive history they so very much desire.
Big Dev was missed
One of Schmidt’s biggest gambles in the build-up to World Cup 2019 was the shafting of loyal servant Devin Toner. The lock’s lack of heft in the carry was supposedly a reason why he was dramatically jettisoned in favour of the recently eligible South African Jean Kleyn, but the loss to Japan – a game Kleyn had no involvement in – suggests this decision has now come back to haunt Schmidt.
What Toner had always been was a banker at the lineout and a dictator in the attacking maul department. Both these attributes were acutely missed in Shizuoka where Ireland lost a couple of critical lineouts. The first on halfway allowed Japan a critical momentum shift when they trailed 12-3, and the second happened after Ireland had kicked a 49th-minute penalty to touch in the opposition 22 when they would have surely looked to maul their way towards the line if Toner was present.
WATCH: RugbyPass gauges the mood as spectators filter out of the stadium following Ireland’s stunning loss to Japan in Shizuoka
Comments on RugbyPass
He is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to commentsWhat do you get if you cross a doctor with a fish? A plastic sturgeon
14 Go to commentsWhat happened to feleti Kaitu’u? Hasnt played in a while right?
1 Go to commentsGregor I just can’t agree with you. You are trying to find something that just isn’t there. Jordie Barrett has signed until 2028. By the end of that he would have spent probably 11-12 years on Super Rugby and you say he can’t possibly have one season playing somewhere else. It is absurd. What about this scenario, the NZR play hard ball and he decides to leave and play overseas. How would that affect the competition. There seems to be an agenda by certain journalists to push certain agendas and don’t like it when it’s not to their liking. I fully support the NZR on this. Gregor needs to get a life.
2 Go to commentsHope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to commentsMake what step up? Manie has a World Cup winner’s medal around his neck and changed the way the Springboks can play. He doesn’t have anything to prove to anyone. The win record of the Boks with him in the team is tremendous. Sacha can be wonderful and I hope he has a very succesful Bok career, but comparing him to Manie in terms of the next Bok flyhalf is very strange. Manie is the incumbent (not the next) and doing pretty incredibly.
1 Go to comments00 😍 U
1 Go to commentsSabbaticals have helped keep NZ’s very best talent in the country on long term deals - this fact has been left out of this article. Much like the articles calling to allow overseas players to be selected, yet can only name one player currently not signed to NZR who would be selected for the ABs. And in the entire history of NZ players leaving to play overseas, literally only 4 or 5 have left in their prime as current ABs. (Piatau, Evans, Hayman, Mo’unga,?) Yes Carter got an injury while playing in France 16 years ago, but he also got a tournament ending injury at the 2011 World Cup while taking mid-week practice kicks at goal. Maybe Jordie gets a season-ending injury while playing in Ireland, maybe he gets one next week against the Brumbies. NZR have many shortcomings, but keeping the very best players in the country and/or available for ABs selection is not one of them. Likewise for workload management - players missing 2 games out of 14 is hardly a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Again let’s use some facts - did it stop the Crusaders winning SR so many times consecutively when during any given week they would be missing 2 of their best players? The whole idea of the sabbatical is to reward your best players who are willing to sign very long term deals with some time to do whatever they want. They are not handed out willy-nilly, and at nowhere near the levels that would somehow devalue Super Rugby. In this particular example JB is locked in with NZR for what will probably (hopefully) be the best years of his career, hard to imagine him not sticking around for a couple more after for a Lions tour and one more world cup. He has the potential to become the most capped AB of all time. A much better outcome than him leaving NZ for a minimum of 3 years at the age of 27, unlikely to ever play for the ABs again, which would be the likely alternative.
2 Go to commentsJake White talks more sense than anything I've read in the last 5 years. Hope someone's listening.
9 Go to commentsThe Springboks tried going down the road of only picking home-based players and it was an unmitigated disaster in 2016 and 2017. Picking overseas-based players has been one of the main reason the Boks have done so well since 2018, not only because of the quality Rassie could call on, but because of the knowledge and experience those players brought into camp from England, France and Japan. With some of the big names playing abroad it also gave younger players in SA the chance to break through at franchise level. Would we have seen the emergence of a Ruan Nortje if RG and Lood were still at the Bulls? Not so sure. I understand why Jake would want to block players leaving since his job depends on good results but it’s an approach that would take Bok rugby back to the bad old days and no South African wants to see that.
9 Go to commentsExeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
39 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
39 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
14 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to comments