Stephen Larkham weighs in on potential dead rubber qualifying final

Now we have a combo made up of the dreadfully out of form chap on the left. And an ageing bloke who told us he was no longer a winger, in the unfamiliar 14 jersey.

Why on earth they didn’t choose at least one form winger in the squad is perplexing. This continued obsession with utilities will end up with the coaches having egg on their face at some point.

The ABs were tired and the French were rusty in November. It goes in cycles.

I suspect he’s very well looked after behind the scenes.

Yes the French have changed their system, but it's still too inward looking and the season too long. They are producing the players but can they fulfill their potential?

That “not everything revolves around NZ” comment is pretty poor. If anyone's acting like the world revolves around them it's the Top 14. I'm sure that the Saffers would moan if France brought their B team too. Italy don't have a hope against them and the home unions as usual have taken their best available players so that argument doesn't wash either.

Razor didn’t build much last year. And now it’s showing.

I still can’t believe that (as a neutral) we haven’t seen anyone else at 10 other than BB and DMac.

1. What happens if either of those two players get injured - very possible given BB is a senior citizen and both players are playing in your big games?

2. Does NZ not have anyone else who can play 10? What happens if Richie gets injured before the 2027 RWC? Also a possibility since you’re not managing him. And I’m assuming he’s the long term plan.

3. Why is someone like Ioane an option at wing at all? Since when did NZ and the pacific stop producing a near endless supply of large fast humans?

I’m very confused by what’s going on. I keeping reading comments with names in them of players who could be picked - but they never are.

You still only lose ranking points if you’re beaten by a team that you could conceivably beat, hence why Italy lose no points when beaten by South Africa. Wales entering the RWC in 2027 in a group full of teams better than them would mean that they would lose no points, or only a very small amount of points, by being beaten, but would have the potential to drastically improve their ranking with just a single upset win.

E.g. using today’s ranking points, lets imagine Wales drew Ireland, Fiji, and Romania in their pool, losing against the first two but beating Romania, then lost to France in the R16. The worst case scenario (losing to Fiji, Ireland, and France by more than 15 points, and beating Romania by less than 15) would only lose Wales 0.66 points. The alternate scenario (coming within 15 points of Fiji and beating Romania by more than 15) would lose Wales just 0.29 points. The dream scenario of Wales securing a narrow win over Fiji would improve Wales’ score by 3.37 points, although I cba factoring in how that would impact Wales’ draw in the knockouts. Feel free to check these calculations yourself at the website called “World Rugby Rankings Calculator”, which is easily found through google but which I don’t think I can link to directly on here.

Its worth remembering that England finished 3rd at the world cup and Ireland lost in the QFs, but because England had a much easier draw than Ireland they finished the tournament ranked 5th, and Ireland 2nd. Overall the rankings do a pretty great job of fairly reflecting how well teams have played.