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New Zealand sorely missed the unpredictability of one of the game's most elusive players
Questions will rightly be asked how New Zealand were so comprehensively outplayed by their English counterparts on Saturday night.
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The All Blacks have been the highest-ranked side in the world since the last World Cup, dropping from the top spot for mere days at a time before reclaiming their place.
There have, of course, been blips in recent times.
Losses to South Africa, Australia and Ireland in the last year raised a few eyebrows. New Zealand were probably lucky to escape from Twickenham last November with a win – likewise, from Pretoria a month prior.
Still, there was every belief that the All Blacks would come right at the World Cup – but it wasn’t to bed.
New Zealand met a hungrier, more motivated, more youthful opponent who suffocated the All Blacks’ attack, giving them just scraps to work with.
At the end of Saturday’s semi-final loss, New Zealand finished with 44% possession and 38% territory.
New Zealand have historically been a side that are capable of winning games with less ball and less field position than their opponents, but that’s changed in recent times.
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It’s not that the All Blacks have gotten worse, as such, it’s just that defences have tightened up considerably. Fit, rushing defences – combined with lack of any sort of policing of the offside line – have constricted New Zealand’s attack.
The All Blacks managed their tight victory over England in November on the back of dominating territory and possession, but even that barely got them over the line.
When they’ve found themselves behind on those stats – against Ireland last year, and against Australia and England in 2019 – they’ve also found themselves on the wrong side of the scoreboard.
It’s an issue that Steve Hansen and his fellow All Blacks coaches have seemingly tried to rectify with bringing in hungry, dynamic outside backs.
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“It’s interesting looking at average tries over the last couple of test matches,” said Ian Foster following the defeat. “Defences are getting a lot better organised.
“One try apiece in an England v All Blacks game is not unusual, with both teams trying to suffocate each other. It was frustrating that we didn’t execute as well as we could last night.
“There’s still a great attitude among the players and that’s the key thing. We need to go away and address that [lack of try-scoring].”
Damian McKenzie re-signs with New Zealand Rugby and the Chiefs https://t.co/b04VqEtnYM pic.twitter.com/4cXJfxBYIA
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) March 8, 2018
Rieko Ioane and Ben Smith, Hansen’s preferred wings for 2018 and the early stages of this season, were dropped ahead of New Zealand’s rematch against Australia in August.
In came young Crusaders tyros George Bridge and Sevu Reece.
There’s been plenty of debate concerning Smith’s demotion, in particular. Would having an extra experienced head on the field against England have made a difference?
The fact of the matter is, however, that Smith is no longer the pacey, hard-to-catch outside back that he once was. He’s still an incredibly good player and safe as houses in the backfield, but the All Blacks needed to find ways to break through defences, and Smith simply didn’t fit the bill.
Reece and Bridge have looked solid for New Zealand since their promotions, but they also found it hard going against England in the semi-final.
Damian McKenzie has revealed his thoughts on the first five/fullback debate.https://t.co/KI2Tcdaj6X
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) July 3, 2019
Obviously the future All Blacks coach needs to find alternative solutions to breaking down opposition defences, but there is one man who likely could have made a big difference in Saturday’s match.
Damian McKenzie’s ACL injury way back in April was hard to swallow for Chiefs’ fans – but the rest of the country didn’t seem all too fussed. The dominant way of thinking seemed to be that McKenzie’s play was just a bit too high risk, high reward.
Crusaders fans, in particular, were probably quite happy to see Richie Mo’unga take over in the 10 jersey, with Beauden Barrett shifted to fullback.
Come the World Cup finals, however, a relatively green first five is not what you want.
Mo’unga has not faced considerable pressure on the field in his professional career to date. He’s an excellent player and will develop into an exceptional All Black, but he’s had an easy ride behind a dominant Crusaders pack at the Super Rugby level and is still finding his feet on the Test scene.
Barrett’s best position may well be at fullback, but he’s considerably more used to backpedalling behind a dominated forward pack from 10 than Mo’unga is.
McKenzie, playing at fullback, is one of the most elusive, dangerous counter-attackers in world rugby.
Against Ireland, last year, McKenzie was one of the only All Blacks who actually looked capable of breaching the tight defence. It was a similar story a week earlier against England – he was man-handled at times, but he also kept asking questions of the Red Roses.
In that game against England, McKenzie made four line-breaks (the best of any player on the field) and beat 12 defenders – the same number as the next two most dangerous runners combined.
When defences are as strong as they currently are, the fact of the matter is you sometimes need to throw caution to the wind.
A fit Damian McKenzie would have given the All Blacks a threatening ball-runner from the backfield and also allowed the nation’s most experienced first five to pull the strings from 10.
New Zealand had no answer for England’s outstanding performance in the World Cup semi-final – and Steve Hansen tipped his hat to them:
Comments on RugbyPass
I wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
83 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
83 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
4 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
4 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
4 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to comments