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Double trouble, naughty rucking, six-day turnarounds and very different MOTMs... the build-up to Scotland vs Wales
You’d never have predicted a week ago that Saturday’s Scotland versus Wales clash at Murrayfield would be the pick of the Guinness Six Nations round two matches. With England expected to see off the Scots and the Irish backed to grind down the Welsh, the script was that the Sunday Ireland-France meeting in Dublin would surely dominate the focus.
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Not so. Wins for unfancied Scotland and Wales have resulted in their Edinburgh head-to-head jumping to the head of the queue of must-see games this weekend and unless the encounter is drawn, one of these little tipped teams will be heading into round three in a couple of weeks’ time with a Grand Slam still in their sights. Incredible.
It wasn’t pretty watching these teams slug it out 15 weeks ago in Llanelli for a minor placing in the delayed finished to the 2020 championship, but their latest encounter has the potential to be a thing of beauty in the sense that one of them will still have it all to play for later in this month’s round three fixtures, quite an unforeseen development.
Here are some of the more pertinent issues RugbyPass is watching out for as two of the championship’s three remaining unbeaten sides fight it out with so much at stake:
DOUBLE TROUBLE
Murrayfield isn’t much of a fortress, Scotland losing four of their past nine outings there and beaten last time out versus the French in November. Three of those losses – to England, Wales and Ireland – took place in front of sold-out crowds so it was curious to hear Gregor Townsend dwell on the issue that having no fans present is a “threat” for the Scots this weekend.
It would be terribly disappointing if Redpath doesn't play again this spring after last Saturday's magnificent debut#SixNations #SCOvWAL
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) February 11, 2021
It shouldn’t. Every side is now used to playing behind closed doors. Instead, the prime threat for Scotland is the age-old problem of failing to back up a big win by going out and winning all over again the week after.
Last week’s startling pre-game fact was how it was 1983 when Scotland had last triumphed at the home of English rugby. This week’s standout statistic is how the Scots haven’t managed to win their first two games in the championship since 1996. Compare that to England winning their first two games on 18 occasions in the 24 campaigns since then, France 13, Ireland eight and Wales five.
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This back-to-back famine illustrates the massive hurdle now in front of Scotland who lost to Ireland at home in 2019 and away to France in 2017 on the two most recent occasions they made a winning start to the championship before last weekend’s howitzer of a triumph away to England. It’s surely high time for them do something they haven’t achieved in 25 years and finally double-up again.
NAUGHTY RUCKING
Reflecting on Scotland’s 14-10 low frills win over the Welsh at Llanelli at the end of October, what stood out was the much quicker ball they were able to generate at the ruck.
The Scots shifted 44.59 per cent of their possession in the crucial zero-to-three seconds ruck recycle window compared to Wales’ 26.56 per cent, while the Scots also only lost two rucks to Wales’ seven. Wales also conceded eleven of their 16 penalties at the ruck compared to Scotland giving up just two of their six penalties there.
Townsend has stressed: “Wales are an improved team since the autumn”. They are in the sense that they have travelled north having won three of their last four games, quite a change to the six-game losing streak they were in the middle of suffering when the Scots last played them.
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However, if last weekend’s ruck statistics are to be a factor in determining this Saturday’s result, then the force is leaning Scotland’s way. The Scots, who had lock Scott Cummings involved in a massive 45 attacking rucks, were limited by England to recycling just 37.84 per cent of their ruck ball in the zero-to-three seconds window compared to Wales’ 45.95 per cent figure versus Ireland, but the good news ended there for Wales.
Wayne Pivac’s side lost five rucks and conceded ten of their eleven penalties at the ruck compared to Townsend’s players losing just a single ruck and conceding just two of their six penalties at the breakdown. It suggests Wales are in a need of a huge improvement against the better-disciplined Scots.
The fastest try in #GuinnessSixNations history! ???#SCOVWAL pic.twitter.com/zR56y7um1s
— Guinness Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) February 12, 2021
CONTRASTING MOTMs
It said much about the different methodology of their respective round one wins that Scotland had a man of the match in full-back Stuart Hogg while Wales’ standout performer, as chosen by the tournament sponsors, was loosehead Wyn Jones.
Whereas Hogg’s display showcased his usual star talents, his tactical kicking and his ability to gain huge yardage carrying possession, what got Jones’ notice were some untypical prop-type contributions. For instance, he made 53 metres off a dozen carries and got in five passes.
These were big figures compared to Ireland’s Cian Healy (eleven metres for three carries and zero passes), England’s Ellis Genge (seven metres for two carries and one pass) and Scotland’s Rory Sutherland (28 metres from seven runs and zero passes).
Jones definitely fits into the unsung heroes category but Scotland also have performers of that ilk. While so much chatter was about the likes of Hogg, Finn Russell, Cameron Redpath and the flankers, the Test level potency of Duhan van der Merwe is quite an attraction. His decisive try last weekend was his fourth in five Test starts, highlighting him as a danger going up against Louis Rees-Zammit.
"Really saddened for Josh. A debut against Scotland would have been something he had dreamt of"#SixNations #SCOvWAL
https://t.co/gqCCESrEx7— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) February 11, 2021
SIX-DAY MYTH
There has been a focus on the supposed hardship Wales are shouldering having to play another Test match just six days after their previous fixture. The physicality of that win over Ireland forced the Welsh to alter their training week, to dwell more on classroom work and team meetings earlier in the week to give players an extra recovery day before a Wednesday run through and then their only full-on training session of the week on Thursday afternoon before travelling.
It sounds like a rush job for a team that has lost all four of its previous away game in the Pivac era, conceding 24, 33, 38 and 32 points in Dublin, London, Paris and Dublin again. However, this six-day turnaround doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a recipe for a guaranteed defeat judging by the results of recent Six Nations six-dayers.
Last year England won away to Scotland six days after they had lost in France. While Ireland lost to Wales in 2019 six days after defeating the French at home, France recovered to beat Italy in Rome, and in 2018 England beat Wales six days after winning against Italy. As for Wales’ previous Six Nations six-day turnaround, they followed up a 2018 home win over the Italians by also beating the French in Cardiff six day later.
"He could be a special player going forward"
– Willis Halaholo was called up by Wales at the expense of Jamie Roberts #SixNations #SCOvWALhttps://t.co/rytZ1ChINF
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) February 11, 2021
GLASS-HALF-FULL
It was widely highlighted how Wales took the field in Cardiff last Sunday with an XV boasting 874 caps, making it the most experienced team ever fielded by them, and it is curious how having to make five changes to that starting XV for Murrayfield hasn’t shorn them of that nous as they will start against Scotland with a total of 864 caps.
They’re not exactly an ancient Dad’s Army group either as the average age checks in at 28.8, only slightly older than the 27.0 average age of a Scottish XV who are considerably less experienced with a combined 417 caps total. This continued wealth of experience despite changing one-third of his team has Pivac in glass-half-full mode.
“We have got experience there. It’s really just the midfield and the jackal threats we were looking to put into the game, we don’t have as many. It’s not all doom and gloom,” he said of the enforced changes all caused by a wide spectrum of injuries – ACL, hamstring, two head knocks and a foot problem. Can that weight of experience now make a telling difference?
??????? @Scotlandteam secure #GuinnessSixNations win in Wales for the first time in 18 years!
Let's recap the last time they met ? pic.twitter.com/hUNSDZvapA
— Guinness Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) February 12, 2021
Comments on RugbyPass
Lets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
10 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
10 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to comments