Blessings and boredom: Why repeating history in 2023 won't be the undoing of Kiwi coaches
History appears to be repeating itself.
At least, that’s the impression many would get when casting their eyes over the just-announced draw for the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
Because despite the random nature of the draw, the pools for 2023 look remarkably similar to what fans bore witness to in 2019.
Focussing only on the confirmed teams at this stage, New Zealand and Italy, Ireland and Scotland, Australia, Wales and Fiji, and England and Argentina have all been drawn together in repeats of what happened last year.
The match between the All Blacks and the Azzurri was called off due to Typhoon Hagibis – but that doesn’t change the fact that the NZ/Italy combo is a staple of Rugby World Cups, with the teams squaring off at five of the tournaments to date.
Add France into the mix and we’re destined to witness the seventh World Cup clash between the All Blacks and Les Bleus.
In total, just under half of the matches played between the 12 announced teams for RWC 2023 will be repeats of what happened in 2019.
Adding the competition’s eight other nations into the mix doesn’t really spice things up considerably either.
Namibia will again be huge favourites to secure the Africa 1 spot, earning themselves a place in Pool A alongside New Zealand and Italy – two teams they played in 2019 (and it will be the third World Cup in a row they’ve been paired with the All Blacks). Further, USA will likely secure the Americas 1 spot, which will mean they’ll again find themselves in a pool with France.
Tonga will likely claim the Asia-Pacific berth – unless they can upset Samoa – and will once more be drawn with Scotland and Ireland in Pool B. Europe’s second-best qualifier will again end up in that same pool, though it would be a surprise if Russia were able to grab that spot after superior sides Romania, Spain and Belgium were all disqualified from last year’s tournament for fielding ineligible players in the qualifiers.
In Pool C, Georgia are odds-on favourites to progress as Europe 1, meaning Australia, Wales, Fiji and the Lelos will all feature in the same group for a second World Cup on the trot. Australia and Wales, meanwhile, have been pool buddies since 2011.
Samoa, the likely Pacific 1 representative, will again find themselves partnered with Argentina and England in Pool D.
'There’s an excitement that you see the draw… then there’s the reality of who you are going to play against'https://t.co/QCQLaSgOvx
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) December 14, 2020
All in all, that likely means we’ll see fifteen matches from Japan’s 2019 Rugby World Cup repeated four years later in France.
Already, questions were being raised why the draw for the 2023 competition was taking place so early. Other organising bodies typically wait until closer to the time before determining seedings for major events – the FIFA World Cup, for example, is scheduled to kick off a year earlier than rugby’s equivalent, but the make-up of the groups are still very much up in the air.
COVID’s emergence has further complicated things. The seedings for 2023 were set to be based on world rankings at the end of the 2020 season but with many teams not able to play matches this year, World Rugby has instead used the rankings from this time last year to determine how the 12 automatic qualifiers are seeded.
Wales, who managed a fourth-place finish at the 2019 World Cup, have been on a downwards spiral since last year and won just twice this year – against Italy and Georgia. Currently, they’re ranked ninth in the world and would have been classified as a band C team for the 2023 draw but based on their ranking at the end of last year, have been treated as a band A team for the purposes of the competition in France.
Whiles Wales haven’t ended up in the easiest of pools, with Australia and Fiji present, the safe money would still be on the Wayne Pivac-coached side to progress through to the quarter-finals.
Meanwhile, one of Ireland (5th in the world) or Scotland (7th) will almost certainly miss out on the knockout stages of the competition, thanks to the presence of the 2019 winners, South Africa, in their pool.
It’s perhaps a worst-case scenario – with the groups not reflecting the current state of the game, nor offering fans anything fresh to get hugely excited about.
Then again, the draw will certainly throw out a few new fixtures.
Despite competing in every tournament since the 1995 iteration, the world champion Springboks have never played Ireland at a World Cup and the match between the two green-clad sides could produce some fire, especially as the Pool B runner-up will likely face the All Blacks in a quarterfinal.
View this post on Instagram
The Pool D clash between Argentina and Japan will also be eagerly awaited. The two nations perhaps boast the greatest short-term untapped potential in world rugby and have faced off just six times, with 22 tries scored over their most recent two encounters. With Kiwi coaches Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown set to lead the Brave Blossoms until the end of 2023, their try output will continue to increase – but the abrasive Argentinians and well-disciplined English should prove tough defences for Japan to crack.
Switching attention to another Kiwi, Ian Foster is halfway through a two-year contract as All Blacks head coach and will no doubt be keeping a close eye on France as they continue to go from strength to strength. If Foster does extend his contract next season, as many expect, then he’ll need to pull a few tricks out from his sleeves in order to bamboozle the resurgent French. New Zealand have sometimes reverted to ‘boring rugby’ in 2020 in order to better prepare themselves for the might of the north, but as France have shown in 2020, they’re not a team who can simply be ground to death.
The New Zealand v France clash ties with Australia’s rivalries with Wales and England as the most repeated fixture in World Cup history. The match-up hasn’t grown stale, however, despite its frequency, with the French often proving the All Blacks’ foil in knockout competitions. The loser of the game that could well be the tournament opener will likely face South Africa in the quarter-finals – adding a bit of extra heat to the battle.
Still, it’s hard to overlook the fact that there simply won’t be quite as much intrigue heading into the 2023 competition as there was when 2019 and 2015 loomed. They’re matches we’ve seen before – many, often in the last nine years – and bar a couple of tough calls over who will qualify second in Pools B, C, and D (though there’s a likely pick and an outside pick in all three cases), rugby’s flagship event likely won’t throw out too many surprises in France.
Comments on RugbyPass
Great story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
39 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
39 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
39 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
4 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
6 Go to comments