Blessings and boredom: Why repeating history in 2023 won't be the undoing of Kiwi coaches
History appears to be repeating itself.
At least, that’s the impression many would get when casting their eyes over the just-announced draw for the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
Because despite the random nature of the draw, the pools for 2023 look remarkably similar to what fans bore witness to in 2019.
Focussing only on the confirmed teams at this stage, New Zealand and Italy, Ireland and Scotland, Australia, Wales and Fiji, and England and Argentina have all been drawn together in repeats of what happened last year.
The match between the All Blacks and the Azzurri was called off due to Typhoon Hagibis – but that doesn’t change the fact that the NZ/Italy combo is a staple of Rugby World Cups, with the teams squaring off at five of the tournaments to date.
Add France into the mix and we’re destined to witness the seventh World Cup clash between the All Blacks and Les Bleus.
In total, just under half of the matches played between the 12 announced teams for RWC 2023 will be repeats of what happened in 2019.
Adding the competition’s eight other nations into the mix doesn’t really spice things up considerably either.
Namibia will again be huge favourites to secure the Africa 1 spot, earning themselves a place in Pool A alongside New Zealand and Italy – two teams they played in 2019 (and it will be the third World Cup in a row they’ve been paired with the All Blacks). Further, USA will likely secure the Americas 1 spot, which will mean they’ll again find themselves in a pool with France.
Tonga will likely claim the Asia-Pacific berth – unless they can upset Samoa – and will once more be drawn with Scotland and Ireland in Pool B. Europe’s second-best qualifier will again end up in that same pool, though it would be a surprise if Russia were able to grab that spot after superior sides Romania, Spain and Belgium were all disqualified from last year’s tournament for fielding ineligible players in the qualifiers.
In Pool C, Georgia are odds-on favourites to progress as Europe 1, meaning Australia, Wales, Fiji and the Lelos will all feature in the same group for a second World Cup on the trot. Australia and Wales, meanwhile, have been pool buddies since 2011.
Samoa, the likely Pacific 1 representative, will again find themselves partnered with Argentina and England in Pool D.
'There’s an excitement that you see the draw… then there’s the reality of who you are going to play against'https://t.co/QCQLaSgOvx
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) December 14, 2020
All in all, that likely means we’ll see fifteen matches from Japan’s 2019 Rugby World Cup repeated four years later in France.
Already, questions were being raised why the draw for the 2023 competition was taking place so early. Other organising bodies typically wait until closer to the time before determining seedings for major events – the FIFA World Cup, for example, is scheduled to kick off a year earlier than rugby’s equivalent, but the make-up of the groups are still very much up in the air.
COVID’s emergence has further complicated things. The seedings for 2023 were set to be based on world rankings at the end of the 2020 season but with many teams not able to play matches this year, World Rugby has instead used the rankings from this time last year to determine how the 12 automatic qualifiers are seeded.
Wales, who managed a fourth-place finish at the 2019 World Cup, have been on a downwards spiral since last year and won just twice this year – against Italy and Georgia. Currently, they’re ranked ninth in the world and would have been classified as a band C team for the 2023 draw but based on their ranking at the end of last year, have been treated as a band A team for the purposes of the competition in France.
Whiles Wales haven’t ended up in the easiest of pools, with Australia and Fiji present, the safe money would still be on the Wayne Pivac-coached side to progress through to the quarter-finals.
Meanwhile, one of Ireland (5th in the world) or Scotland (7th) will almost certainly miss out on the knockout stages of the competition, thanks to the presence of the 2019 winners, South Africa, in their pool.
It’s perhaps a worst-case scenario – with the groups not reflecting the current state of the game, nor offering fans anything fresh to get hugely excited about.
Then again, the draw will certainly throw out a few new fixtures.
Despite competing in every tournament since the 1995 iteration, the world champion Springboks have never played Ireland at a World Cup and the match between the two green-clad sides could produce some fire, especially as the Pool B runner-up will likely face the All Blacks in a quarterfinal.
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The Pool D clash between Argentina and Japan will also be eagerly awaited. The two nations perhaps boast the greatest short-term untapped potential in world rugby and have faced off just six times, with 22 tries scored over their most recent two encounters. With Kiwi coaches Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown set to lead the Brave Blossoms until the end of 2023, their try output will continue to increase – but the abrasive Argentinians and well-disciplined English should prove tough defences for Japan to crack.
Switching attention to another Kiwi, Ian Foster is halfway through a two-year contract as All Blacks head coach and will no doubt be keeping a close eye on France as they continue to go from strength to strength. If Foster does extend his contract next season, as many expect, then he’ll need to pull a few tricks out from his sleeves in order to bamboozle the resurgent French. New Zealand have sometimes reverted to ‘boring rugby’ in 2020 in order to better prepare themselves for the might of the north, but as France have shown in 2020, they’re not a team who can simply be ground to death.
The New Zealand v France clash ties with Australia’s rivalries with Wales and England as the most repeated fixture in World Cup history. The match-up hasn’t grown stale, however, despite its frequency, with the French often proving the All Blacks’ foil in knockout competitions. The loser of the game that could well be the tournament opener will likely face South Africa in the quarter-finals – adding a bit of extra heat to the battle.
Still, it’s hard to overlook the fact that there simply won’t be quite as much intrigue heading into the 2023 competition as there was when 2019 and 2015 loomed. They’re matches we’ve seen before – many, often in the last nine years – and bar a couple of tough calls over who will qualify second in Pools B, C, and D (though there’s a likely pick and an outside pick in all three cases), rugby’s flagship event likely won’t throw out too many surprises in France.
Comments on RugbyPass
“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
24 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
17 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to comments