Aussie Super Rugby takes: Tupou's value unquestionable, Wallabies No.1 fullback

It was a frustrating round for Aussie supporters, unless of course you wear a Brumby on your chest.  

The men from the Bush capital lead the charge and continue to find their form towards the backend of the season. 

For the Waratahs, the frustration will come from knowing that despite a scrappy game, they were in the contest for almost all of it. Similarly, knowing if they had a functioning set piece, they could have at least given themselves a chance to steal the win. 

For the Force, the frustration will come from having played a really gusty, tough style of rugby and only just missing out on an upset victory against a building Hurricanes side, by the width of a couple of goal posts. 

And while there are cheers and jeers across the pacific, numbers must be crunched on who is shaping up to the be the best pick for the Wallabies fullback jersey. 

Western Force show plenty of fight but were lucky

It was a cracking game in Perth to wrap up round 10, with fans on both sides of the Tasman biting their nails on the edge of their seats, barely able to watch as the game produced the season’s first Super-Point time. 

The Force did well to defend fortress HBF but will be disappointed they couldn’t capitalise on an evening where they were receiving the rub of the green from referee Damon Murphy. 

You’d have thought Tom Robertson was the premier tighthead prop in the competition, or the master of the scrum’s dark arts, the way he milked four scrum penalties out of All Blacks XV prop, Xavier Numia. 

Touted All Blacks openside flanker and Hurricanes co-captain Du’Plessis Kirifi had a right to look as bewildered as he did at some of the line ball calls which went against his side. 

Calls, particularly surrounding the breakdown, appeared to consistently fall on the Force’s side and it stemmed the visitor’s momentum and that was enough to keep the Force’s defence intact. 

The Force did well to come off their bye-week and stave off a dangerous Canes side, the two points from the draw are better than zero, but it means the race to the finals is fraught for them, as they are now well and truly part of the middle pack, competing for a finals berth. 

Misunderstood stat which shows why the ACT Brumbies juggernaut is up and running 

Before round 10, Moana Pasifika were the side which had scored the most points in the entire competition, and the Brumbies managed to keep them to zero in their win in Pukekohe. 

Defence wins championships, the adage rings true if you start looking at the point differentials across the board, now that the competition is stretching into its final third. 

The Brumbies (+43), Crusaders (+63), Chiefs (+104) all have six wins or more and are finding serious form heading into the backend of the season. 

However, if you were just reading the raw defensive numbers, you’d say the Brums have a way to go in nailing their defence, tackling at 86% against Moana, whereas the home side tackled at 92%, with the final score, nonetheless, being 24-0 to the Brums. 

The analysis which many fail to factor into their calculations is the rush-defence system the Brumbies employ and even the best operators like South Africa, fail to crack the 90% tackle completion rate consistently. 

It’s a system built on trust, calculated scramble, and effort, and the Brumbies are nailing it. Before the weekend, they had the tenth best tackle completion in the competition, and yet they kept Moana to zero points. 

Territory control from the halves, and a ferocious breakdown presence as well as strong on ballers at the ruck, means the Brums have a strong mix of levers which keep them out of their danger zone, and keeps the pressure on their opponents.

The loss in Fiji proves how crucial the Wallaby props are

For all the flack Taniela Tupou has copped over the opening two thirds of the season, the Waratahs’ result would’ve looked different if the Tongan Thor would’ve played. 

The scrum has been the Waratahs’ launchpad, whether it’s to exit, relieve pressure or conversely; to apply pressure, Tupou alongside Angus Bell have been the glue for their scrum.  

Although he isn’t anywhere near his destructive best, his power and strength in the scrum is undeniable. 

This is not to say that his work rate or impact around the field should be overlooked, it’s merely stating that when such few things are consistent, don’t change the thing that’s working.  

While the Waratahs search for consistency of performance, they need areas of their game they can lean on, and without the scrum the Fijian Drua were able to gather momentum and expose the visitors in hot and sweaty Lautoka. 

To put it in numbers, before the weekend’s games, the Drua had the second-best scrum success stats in the comp, the Waratahs were fifth, going to Fiji with an underpowered scrum was a big gamble. 

Losing Isaac Aedo Kailea, Ben Grant and Charlie Gamble all within the first 30-minutes form the forward pack didn’t help. 

As the Waratahs continue to grow and learn to play as a team, they will need to start identifying their strengths and sticking to them, something which the Brumbies do so well. 

Wallaby Watch: Fullbacks a plenty or a clear choice? 

Tom Wright is the clear and obvious choice for the Wallabies No.15 jersey, he has vastly more experience than any of his immediate competitors. 

While he has himself admitted to worrying less now about the highlight moments than he used, the highlight moments are still required by the Brumbies and the Wallabies, as they hope to make a splash in 2025. 

Meanwhile, new wonder kid Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii is basking in the spotlight and his raw power and athleticism is providing the Waratahs with a clutch weapon on attack. 

Similarly, the white headgear of the west, Mac Grealy, is also making a splash at his newfound home, the Force. 

His composure at the back against the Hurricanes over the weekend, in very high-octane moments, was beyond his years on such a big stage, and he is regularly one of the best in a stacked Force backline. 

If you look at the numbers before the weekend, Wright rightfully has the favourites tag to his name, but only just; Wright 560, Suaalii 305, and Grealy 620 minutes played respectively.  

In these minutes, Wright and Suaalii have almost the same carrying stats, Wright has made almost twice as many carries for almost double the metres, but where he stands out is the 26 defenders beaten. 

Grealy has 73 carries to Suaalii’s 44, and has 19 defenders beaten to Suaalii’s 11, but Wright’s strike rate is the best by almost an entire run, beating a defender for every 3.1 runs he makes, whereas Suaalii sits at 4.0 and Grealy sits in the middle at 3.8. 

However, Suaalii’s brawn is his biggest point of difference with his strike rate at line breaks being the best of the three by far, making a line break every 8.8 runs compared to Grealy’s 18.25, and again, Wright is in the middle with 16.4. 

These three players are all impressive athletes, but what is missing from this equation are positional awareness and kicking, two aspects which Grealy and Wright are, understandably and expectedly, way ahead of Suaalii. 

These are vital skills which will matter a great deal when the British and Irish Lions come down under in less than three months’ time.