Why couldn't the All Blacks score more than one try in two tests?
The All Blacks end of year tour headlined by two blockbuster tests has been a real eye-opener, with the side scoring just one try against England in poor conditions and zero against Ireland.
The two hard-fought contests will probably provide far more learnings for them than the last three Rugby Championships combined. However, for a side that was averaging five tries and over 40 points a game in 2018, how did this happen?
Taking a macro perspective to answer this question and ignoring the micro details of each game, a detailed look into the All Blacks scheduling against ranked competition since the last World Cup highlights a real lack of top-level competition, and possibly a failure to recognise a power shift in rugby’s global landscape as the Rugby Championship gets weaker.
The All Blacks match against Ireland in Dublin was the first time the world’s number one side has faced the number two side since the 2015 Rugby World Cup Final, where the All Blacks played the Wallabies, who were both ranked number one and two heading into the tournament.
Let that sink in for a moment. Three years since the number one side played the number two.
Since 2016, Southern Hemisphere competition has fallen away, while the All Blacks have avoided playing any significant competition outside of the British & Irish Lions, and simply played teams at less than ideal times.
When Wales toured in the first June series following the World Cup, they were ranked seventh. When Ireland first beat the All Blacks in Chicago they were ranked sixth. It’s been two years since the return leg in Dublin where they repaid the favour with a 21-9 win. Whilst England was ranked number two for two years, they didn’t play.
The test series against the British & Irish Lions in 2017, a series in which they drew, highlighted that this side might not be as far ahead of everyone else as once thought.
This year has really been the tipping point for Northern Hemisphere collective power. The matches the All Blacks are playing on a regular basis are against the Wallabies (ranked seventh), the Springboks (fifth), and Argentina (ninth).
With eighth-ranked France coming for a tour in June, this has been the weakest schedule the All Blacks have ever faced in a calendar year.
Before the Autumn Internationals, no matches were played against opposition ranked in the top four. An astounding 70 percent of the matches in 2018 were played against countries ranked seventh or below.
The world’s number one team should be putting 40 points on teams ranked seventh and below. That should be considered a par or slightly above par score, rather than a sign of unrivaled greatness.
In the World Cup cycle so far (excluding the Lions tour), the All Blacks have played 68.5% of their games against teams ranked outside the top four. Just over a third (34%) have been against teams ranked eighth or below.
Whilst it’s good for the international game for other nations to test themselves against the All Blacks, when a third of the games are against minnows, it’s inexcusable to then avoid playing the world’s best competition if you plan on having the best possible preparation you can for the Rugby World Cup.
The inability of the NZR and RFU to schedule a match for more than two years cost the All Blacks regular, meaningful competition against high-ranked World Cup opponents until now, just 12 months out. The tide has gone out and we have seen where they really are.
What’s more valuable to the NZR and the All Blacks, winning the World Cup or half the gate-takings from a Twickenham test? Is it possible that the big picture was lost amid the politics and egos?
The All Blacks are still arguably the world’s number one team, but the distance between them and the competition is next to nothing. A fair assertion, one shared by Hansen himself, is that Ireland is actually the world’s best in 2018, having beaten all before them this year.
With the weakening of the Southern Hemisphere competition becoming crystal clear in 2018, it is more important than ever that the All Blacks play Europe’s best every year moving forward.
An annual match in the Autumn International window between The Rugby Championship winner and the Six Nations champion should be a World Rugby mandated occurrence. If not, then the NZR should be on the phone to that team anyway. In the absence of a League of Nations competition, this is all that is required each year to benchmark who is on top and make sure that every year everything is being done to prepare for the ultimate prize.
It appears the All Blacks have finally found a new rival in Ireland, after searching for nearly 10-years since the Springbok side of 2009. They hold a 2-1 record over the All Blacks in this World Cup cycle, and this couldn’t be better for them.
The All Blacks need more games against Ireland in this era while they are this strong, but unfortunately, the next inbound tour isn’t scheduled until 2022, possibly another three seasons too late, highlighting more inflexibility with current scheduling.
So, why couldn’t they score more than one try on this Northern tour? It’s because they finally played the other best teams in the world, the only other teams who have occupied the number two ranking since 2016.
This is what should happen when the best teams face off, offering an intriguing, gripping and tight contest decided by the smallest of margins. This kind of experience is invaluable for a side aiming to be the best in the world come 2019.
With 12 months to go, there is plenty of time to work things out, but if that doesn’t happen, this World Cup cycle will hopefully be a lesson that drives change in the future to give the All Blacks, and fans, the matches they deserve, making sure no stone is left unturned.
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
Great story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
39 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
39 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
39 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
4 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
6 Go to comments