Who is willing to gamble the most in potential Super Rugby split?
There is a very good chance that the latest comments out of Rugby Australia regarding the future of Super Rugby Pacific are nothing more than posturing.
Chairman Hamish McLennan recently told Fox Sports that Australia will honour the current broadcasting deal, which is set to end following next year’s Super Rugby Pacific competition. Beyond that, however, “all bets are off”.
McLennan’s comments were widely reported, widely interpreted as a serious indication that RA will consider breaking away from their relationship with their counterpart in Aotearoa – and widely criticised too – but could have just as easily been brushed aside as slightly garrulous confirmation of the current agreement with New Zealand Rugby, due to end in 2023.
Further words from the chairman suggest there may be some truth to the rumblings of a coup, however, and that RA are seriously contemplating a brave new world without NZR as their number one partner.
“Bring it on,” McLennan told the Sydney Morning Herald. “I was laughing about [the criticism from around the world]. It didn’t worry me at all.
“Those guys are not privy to the actions of NZR in recent times. Their aggressive reaction towards Australia perhaps shows why they are not good partners. They have reacted so violently when we’ve honoured their two-year deal.”
While the safe money would be on the two unions eventually overcoming their differences and forging ahead into the future, there are no guarantees. Whether NZR is willing to call McLennan’s bluff, however, comes down to what kind of structure the two governing bodies could expect to move forward with if the two nations head their separate ways.
Could either Australia or New Zealand run an entirely independent local competition that would maintain fan interest and still support a strong national side?
The answer is likely no – but for very different reasons.
In NZ’s case, Super Rugby Aoteraoa was simply too physically and mentally attritional for the players, leaving them weary and well below their best after the intense double round-robin competition. Even with Moana Pasifika now in the mix, the outcome would be much the same – and we’ve already seen indications that fans get sick of the same teams going hammer-and-tongs week after week.
The alternative option would see additional franchises added (or the current ones disbanded and restarted anew) – but that would lead to a competition similar in structure to the NPC. Yes, the All Blacks would be involved throughout the whole tournament, unlike the NPC, but would that be enough to distinguish it as a competition? Likely not.
In Australia’s case, the major issue would be the Wallabies suffering heavily in the short term due to the lower level of competition. Last year we saw how poorly the Australian Super Rugby sides competed with their NZ counterparts after an extended break from trans-Tasman fixtures, and that same issue would be transferred to the international level if Australia were to go it alone domestically.
There’s a case to be made that, at least in the long-term, Australia would come out better off. If young Australian fans see their local rugby sides winning week after week, that could boost participation in the sport and increase the player pool for the country in the distant future. Of course, seeing the Wallabies lose each and every match they play could have the opposite effect. Even in the best-case scenario, it would take years for any benefits to come to fruition and it’s difficult to imagine RA being comfortable with a decision that has so few short-term positives.
One way or another, it’s likely that both nations will need to look externally to prop up their competitions – and that’s when the two unions will really go to war.
Both New Zealand Rugby and Rugby Australia will be confident they can win the Pacific Islands over to their sides and the likely outcome will simply be determined by who is able to offer a better commercial deal to the Pacific unions.
As the largest of the three core Pacific unions, Fiji will understandably be coveted by both NZ and Australia. The Fijian Drua have long been tied to the latter, originally featuring in the NRC and in the years since, receiving significant financial input from the Australian government, which will make things difficult for NZR.
Meanwhile, Moana Pasifika’s introduction to the competition has been a major boon for Samoa and Tonga but the two nations may want sides involved in a breakaway competition to be independent from NZR. Either way, concessions would have to be made by whichever Australasian union is most desperate for outside involvement.
Then there’s Japan. Neither New Zealand or Australia has shown huge interest in fast-tracking Japanese involvement back into Super Rugby after the Sunwolves debacle but they would be an invaluable partner moving forward (even if the JRFU are notoriously complicated to work with) and any trepidations from the powers that be at NZR and RA will have to be cast aside, less their union misses out on the potential cash cow that is the Japanese market.
Any talks of Argentina getting back involved hinges almost entirely on South Africa, who are currently locked into a five-year agreement with the United Rugby Championship. Perhaps down the road the two former Super Rugby nations could be reintegrated into a new competition, but that’s a problem for another day.
Might Rugby Australia chairman Hamish McLennan’s recent comments about breaking away from New Zealand simply be a means of getting NZR to fork out some additional money to keep Super Rugby Pacific running in the future? Perhaps. But whether New Zealand Rugby takes the bait or not will simply come down to what they might expect to lose and what they might expect to gain from a potential break-up.
Comments on RugbyPass
After their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
2 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
3 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to comments