Where to now for Leinster as the 'Drive for Five' continues
The parallels between Ireland’s deflating Six Nations opener against England in February and Leinster’s loss to Saracens in the European final are easily made.
Leinster were hammered continually behind the gain line as Saracens test-quality pack dominated collisions and forced Leinster into their shell in a similar fashion to how Ireland were beaten into submission in Dublin in February.
It has to be said that this Saracens team that has been constructed is a modern marvel, with a host of the world’s best forwards in the midst of their peak years as athletes offering at least another two or three years to continue this run, many of whom have been homegrown through Saracens’ youth system.
England lock Maro Itoje is such a luxury that they can use him in the backrow to accommodate two other international locks – George Kruis and the reformed Wallaby Will Skelton. The 24-year-old Itoje has re-committed until 2022, while Skelton and Kruis are still in their late twenties. Skelton has foregone an opportunity to play at this year’s World Cup by re-signing with the club on a new two-year deal.
When both Vunipola’s are healthy, the impact they bring is irreplaceable for both England and Saracens. They are 26 and 28-years-old respectively, with many prime years left ahead. England hooker Jamie George, also 28, has cemented himself as the country’s number one throwing option, another piece of Saracens’ puzzle that isn’t going anywhere.
With the arrival of Wasps and England fullback Elliot Daly next year, they will have three Six Nations-quality starting fullbacks on the roster with Welsh international Liam Williams and Scotland’s Sean Maitland. England captain Owen Farrell is locked down on a five-year contract until 2022.
There isn’t going to be an attritional decline for this superpower of English rugby for at least three more seasons, which means that a number of Leinster’s ageing stars will have to regroup and find a new peak in order to topple them for more European glory.
Rob Kearney, Jonathan Sexton, Devin Toner, Sean O’Brien, Cian Healy, and Scott Fardy are all stars entering or already in the twilight of their playing careers. O’Brien is a confirmed departure, while many are speculating Kearney is heading to France. The rest will inevitably experience a dip in athleticism with age in contrast to Saracens’ core.
Whilst O’Brien has long been a talisman for Irish rugby, the baton had already been passed on in recent times, as he battled mounting injuries, two standout young loosies have begun international careers. Losing young flankers Dan Leavy and Josh van der Flier to injury this year has been significant for Leinster’s European ambitions.
In combination with Jack Conan, they are one of the most athletic back rows in Europe, with unrelenting drive fuelled by youthful exuberance, manic physicality and disruptive ability at the breakdown. Leavy was voted the man-of-the-match in the semi-final win over Saracens last year, illustrating the kind of difference he can make.
On balance, if all three are available next year, the back row would be one positional unit stronger than Saracens.
This is important for two reasons – superior back row strength will somewhat mitigate the ball-carrying impact that Billy and Mako Vunipola or Maro Itoje bring in close quarters. Leavy and van der Flier have the combative nature to slow the roll, as well as finely tuned engines to compete at a high number of rucks around the paddock to slow the recycle down.
Turnovers from the pack this European season have been limited with prop Cian Healy leading the team with eight.
Leinster players have publicly made it clear that the team under Leo Cullen has more emphasis on attacking from broken play than what the national side does under Schmidt. Turnover-generating machines are fuel to the fire for sides geared towards counter-attacking rugby, and having Leavy and van der Flier back will offer the impetus to provide more of these chances to free the likes of dangermen James Lowe and Jordan Larmour.
One former Leinster player that possesses the ability to change the balance of power in this rivalry is now with Munster.
Tadhg Beirne opted to return to Ireland with Munster after a run of injuries lead to being let go from Dublin three years ago. His newly minted two-year deal will prevent any homecoming, but with a monstrous 15 turnovers in this Champions Cup, he is just the kind of game-changing force that could be used alongside James Ryan that would seriously alter how effective Saracens’ pack would be.
Not to discredit how important Devin Toner has been but Beirne’s production is undeniably on a different level to anyone, whilst his toughness would bring the kind of edge required to unsettle Saracens. A Leinster return is unlikely at this stage, but it is a move that Ireland could make to match it with England.
A return to full fitness for Leinster’s pair of 7’s will help level the playing field. It is rare for every side to have a fully fit contingent so just who is available on the last weekend of European rugby next season for both Saracens and Leinster will determine a lot as it did this time around.
Mark McCall after Saracens’ European win:
Comments on RugbyPass
That’s really sad, hope everyone involved is ok. At least he had pants on.
1 Go to commentsTo be fair it was nowhere bear the Leinster first team (for which, btw, Leinster copped nothing like the outrage that Jake White did for sending a rotated team to the UK). But it’s fun to watch the Stormers doing their thing. They are attracting big, diverse crowds of young fans, and deservedly so. Great to see.
1 Go to commentsIt might be legal but he’s sailing pretty close to the wind. Not a lot needs to go wrong for Finau to end up in the bin. Was it late? Not quite, but borderline. High? A couple of CM within the laws, no room for error with that one. Did he wrap the arms? There was a token effort to wrap one arm, the intent was clearly to hit with the shoulder. So yeah, it’s legal, just. But as we all know, a very slight change in the dynamics could easily have him seeing red. Hopefully not when it really matters.
4 Go to commentsCan we also show some love for Tane Edmed’s fantastic draw and pass? Put his body on the line and committed the defender before letting go of that pass. Flawless skill.
4 Go to commentsYou forget this is Rassie Erasmus who is still holding the Springbok keys. Even with Felix Jones orchestrating a really tight RWC SF last year. It still wasn't enough to get England past their particular Springbok Monkey in world cups. The reason is FJ was going off of what they did in 2019 not necessarily adapting to current Springboks. So yes, Australia can get passed England because let's be honest, England have a one track strategy, Springboks do not. Even with rush defense I wouldn't be surprised if Rassie continually tweaks it. Also bear in mind Rassie is happy to sacrifice a few mid year and inter World Cup matches to pin point how opposition plays and how to again tweak strategies to get his Springboks in peak performance for the next World Cup. As much as most teams like to win games in front of them and try to win everything, Rassie always makes sure to learn and train for the greatest showdown International Rugby has to offer. Tbh, most people remember World Cup wins and ignore intermediate losses as a result but will remember also WC losses, Ireland, even if they won games in the interim. So even if games are won against the Springboks, it's likely Rassie is just getting a feel for how opposition is moving and adapt accordingly…in time. For Rassie, a loss is never a loss because he uses it as a chance to learn and improve. Sometimes during a game, again like the England match in last year's Semi Final.
7 Go to commentsDanny don't care. He pretends to care but he don't. He says all this stuff to justify his reasoning but no one can claim that legitimately. He knew exactly what he was doing and wondered if his old team mate would overlook it, which he did. Ref has got to be sidelined or properly trained. It's one thing for refs to move up the ranks but if it was me I would require refs to either have played in different clubs or not at all having the temptation to bias in high stakes games like this. This has got to be stamped out. But then again World Rugby is so destroying the game of rugby in an attempt to be more “safe” and “concussion free”. What they are doing is making it more infuriating for the fans and more difficult for the refs to officiate evenly and consistently. It's fast become Australian Rules football. If guys don't want concussions, they should have played chess. Stop complaining you oldies of the game. When they played the game was vastly heavier hitting than it is now but of course they can't see that.
2 Go to commentsJa, why do Bulls get flack for not bringing their best but Leinster never bring their best and it goes “unnoticed”?
3 Go to commentsIt’ll be very interesting to see how Razor’s AB’s handle the new England rush D. It’s basically the Bok recipe they copied, so if England goes well then we know most likely the Boks will go well too. If England cops a hiding then we’ll have to study and adapt.
7 Go to commentsTypical trait of an australian is to moan. Goes well with there lack of humbleness as evident by the Reds bench on the weekend.
4 Go to commentsSBW’s bro’town commentary and lazy default to hyperbole should be ignored, a technical analyst he is not. Sotutu is a good player when games get goosey loosey, high skill set that fans of Zinzan recall with starry eyes. But you need power and mongrel at no8 in the Test arena and Sotutu gets found wanting there, much like Akira Ioane. No8’s like Zinzan and Ardie have bucketloads of mongrel and power and tenacity which allow the skill sets to flourish.
11 Go to commentsAn inside pass to attacker on the angle can make a drift defence look lead footed. Relies on fleet footed forward/s to get across from the breakdown. An argument for the smaller faster 7 perhaps?
7 Go to commentsSensational tackle. The reds one was late and rightly penalised. The other two were simultaneous with the pass. If nitpicking TMOs can’t find fault there clearly isn’t any.
4 Go to commentsBrumbies fully deserved their win on the back of their physicality and desire to control the ball. Xavier Numia, Asafo Aumua and Tyrel Lomax should be the ABs starting front row when we start our test schedule. They have “come of age” and have bested all they have faced as well as been dominant with ball in hand in making the gainline. With De Groot, Tamaiti Williams and Fletcher Newell backed up by Taukei'aho and Cody Taylor there's not an international front row that can trouble us. Can't wait to face the Boks over there, won't be no one point game this time.
7 Go to commentsKinda strange that he wasn’t with a premiership team or a higher level of rugby? Start playing late or something? With that kind of size and athleticism you’d think someone would have picked him up?
2 Go to commentsShows how much attitude matters. Last week the Brumbies got done, this week they dominated the tournament leaders, who were likely thinking they could cruise to victory.
7 Go to commentsA Turtle has more pace and leg drive than Owen Franks, so it’s a good thing he only had to run 90 metres for that try.
2 Go to commentsOh Tamati Tua was in the vastly over-rated Leon MacDonalds Blues system? Well, no wonder he was wasted, much like Emoni Narawa and Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens under MacDonald. now look at them. Good thing Tua isn’t eligible, the Aussies latch on to any player who isn’t tied down.
7 Go to commentsMark Telea is a lot of things, but a defensive juggernaut has never been one of them. There will be far bigger tests in that regard for the youngster.
11 Go to commentsLove and respect to Fiji but not a chance outside of 7s
4 Go to commentsGood summation Ned. Agree the Canes were out-muscled for once (except at the scrum!) by a focused Brumbies outfit. Tua deserves consideration for higher honors after the way he humbled Jordie and the Canes defense. Thankfully, his lack of eligibility for Oz keeps him from Joe’s plans. While I also agree the injuries affected the Canes performance, some players seemed to lack focus and intensity for this match. Perhaps after the Blues demolished the Brumbies, they thought it was going to be easy? A good reminder that any slip up in preparation can have a big affect on the result. Brumbies deserved that win.
7 Go to comments