Three reasons why the All Blacks might not get the three-peat
New Zealand will enter the 2019 Rugby World Cup as favourites – maybe not by a huge margin, but the shortest odds will definitely be on the All Blacks taking out the competition for the third time in a row.
Ignoring the strengths of the other teams for one moment, there are a few different reasons why the men in black might not do the triple.
A raft of Injuries
It’s become rare in the modern era for a national squad to have access to all their players at any given time: injuries are just another part of international rugby.
Damian McKenzie won’t feature at all for the All Blacks in the World Cup and Brodie Retallick will probably be available for just the quarter-finals.
There’s no doubt going to be more injuries to come, too.
Luke Jacobson, the biggest bolter in the squad, has been struggling with concussion issues for the last couple of years. He missed all of 2018’s Mitre 10 Cup season and also sat out the first and last few weeks of the Chiefs’ campaign this season.
Jacobson managed an appearance off the bench against Argentina but then wasn’t able to travel to Perth for the first Bledisloe test after a recurrence of concussion symptoms.
“I was on the pads against South Africa and went through fitness the Monday afterwards and had a bit of a headache,” Jacobson said.
“Then it got worse and it felt like another concussion.”
Concussion is about as scary an injury a player can go through – you never know long the issues will linger. In Jacobson’s case, it seems like even fairly innocuous events can retrigger the symptoms, which should be worrying for everyone in the All Blacks camp.
The current squad has already been hit hard by injuries this year.
Retallick missed a sizeable chunk of Super Rugby, alongside his Chiefs co-captain Sam Cane. Cane has quickly found a rich vein of form but even prior to his shoulder injury, Retallick wasn’t operating anywhere near his best.
Ryan Crotty made an appearance for Canterbury this weekend but will hit the World Cup with just a single international cap under his belt this year (assuming he’s named in the side to face Tonga next week) due to a broken thumb. His Crusaders teammate, Scott Barrett, missed the first couple of Rugby Championship games and managed just half a game against Australia before getting a red card. He will unavailable for selection until the World Cup.
There are further issues in the midfield with both Sonny Bill Williams and Jack Goodhue currently undercooked. Goodhue mustered just one and a half games during this year’s internationals whilst Williams, who sat out a good chunk of the Super Rugby season, has played in just two test this year.
Injuries – both before and during the tournament – have curtailed a few Rugby World Cup campaigns in the past. The All Blacks aren’t exactly in tip-top shape as the competition approaches and will be hoping they can escape with no further set-backs.
Lack of sudden death experience
The Southern Hemisphere sides – and the All Blacks in particular – aren’t exactly used to gruelling, do-or-die matches.
The Rugby Championship, despite what SANZAAR may want you to think, is a low-stakes, low-pressure competition. Even if we cast aside the fact no one really seems to care about the tournament as a whole, winning it has hardly been a tough ask for the All Blacks in recent times.
Only twice in the tournament’s eight-year history have New Zealand not taken out the trophy.
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Argentina have not lived up to their promise and are almost a guaranteed 4 or 5 competition points for the All Blacks. New Zealand have blooded more players to test rugby against Argentina than any other team; they simply haven’t been a challenge to the black machine. The Springboks and the Wallabies have sometimes struggled against the Pumas but that’s only made the competition easier for the All Blacks.
The home sides have traditionally had a major advantage in the Rugby Championship, given the significant travel factor. There’s little pressure on the All Blacks when they play at home because there’s just such a low chance of them losing.
New Zealand haven’t struggled to top the ladder because Argentina gift them a pair of wins every year. Couple that with their two home victories against South Africa and Australia and they can even afford to drop an away match or two.
The short of it is the All Blacks have rarely faced pressure in a Rugby Championship that would come close to what they’ll face in the World Cup. The only times that individual games have had a major bearing on the tournament have been in the two World Cup years where each team plays only three games.
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Notably, New Zealand fell short in both those years.
On the other side of the equator, the team that wins the Six Nations has to regularly do it without dropping any fixtures. One loss can be fatal to a campaign – which is not the case at all in the Rugby Championship.
Many European-based players inevitably end up playing in the Champions Cup – which has a rigorous finals draw. Maybe five years ago the Super Rugby sudden death fixtures compared to the pointy end of the European season but the atmosphere and quality of the Northern Hemisphere club season now comfortably trumps what’s going on down south.
That’s not to say the All Blacks won’t cope with tight, do-or-die games. England, Ireland and Wales have far more experience in that area, however. If matches remain close heading into the final quarter then it could be the Northern Hemisphere sides who have the advantage.
The weight of expectation
The All Blacks have been on top of the world for the last ten years. Wales may have spent the last week at the top of the world rankings but they crashed and burned against Ireland over the weekend.
Probably no team in any sport ever has quite as much a burden placed upon their shoulders as the New Zealand national side do.
No matter where they’re playing, no matter who they’re up against, the expectation is that the All Blacks will win.
Since they took over at the top of the rankings in 2009, New Zealand have played 129 matches and lost just 12 of those games. They’ve also had four draws during that period.
A quarter of those losses and draws have come in just the last year, however, indicating New Zealand don’t have quite the same dominance right now as they have had in the past.
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That won’t stop the nation throwing their belief behind the All Blacks.
Unlike other countries, where the majority of fans seems to see the lone grey cloud in the sky, Kiwi fans have tended to expect the best from their team, even where they’re not playing especially well.
Sure, losses may be treated as a sign of the end times for about a week – but a win of any calibre tends to reset the mood to one of unprecedented optimism.
Every All Blacks loss, no matter who it’s against, comes as a major shock. That means even though New Zealand haven’t been playing particularly well in the last year, the general expectation emanating from NZ fans is the All Blacks will take the World Cup.
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That’s a huge burden for the current crop of players to shoulder.
In the last two World Cups, the All Blacks have had plenty of experienced players to fall back on – guys with over 100 test caps, or players who have tasted defeat at a World Cup.
That’s not the case this year.
Only Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock are test match centurions in the current team. In 2015, the All Blacks had Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock, Richie McCaw, and Dan Carter – with Ma’a Nonu only a few short. McCaw and Mils Muliana were the sole 100-cap-plus players at the 2011 tournament – but Andrew Hore, Ali Williams, Andy Ellis, Mealamu, Conrad Smith, Woodcock, McCaw, Carter and Muliaina had all been a part of the squad which was knocked out of the quarter-finals in 2007.
Looking at the current squad, some players probably barely remember the 2007 World Cup. Luke Jacobson, Rieko Ioane, Sevu Reece and Jordie Barrett would have all been just 10 years old when the All Blacks suffered their worst ever World Cup result – do they have the experience to deal with the weight of the nation?
There’s no question that the All Blacks are one of the best teams in the world right now. They won’t enter the 2019 World Cup with crazy short odds to take out the trophy, however, because their dominance has fallen away in the last 12 months. Obviously it will come down to what happens on the day but fans would be wise to wrangle in their expectations: this tournament is not simply New Zealand’s to lose.
Comments on RugbyPass
Just what the Sharks needed to get things going in the right direction Defence on the outside really creates havoc for the whole team and needs to be addressed.
7 Go to commentsWell done guys both teams will be ready to play knockout rugby.
1 Go to commentsSurprised that Ramos isn't starting at 15. But what a squad of galacticos!
2 Go to commentsWhy is it a snub? What journalistic garbage is that? Sure the guy is a great player, but there are plenty of loose forwards and not all of them can be Springboks. Also, I know of no-one who doubts Rassie’s judgment. South Africa has a conveyor belt of loose forwards that just keeps producing, so the competition is intense. I certainly wish him well, but there is no entitlement and there is no snub.
17 Go to commentsSkelton may be brought back for the Wallabies so that would be the only reason that may hinder Wilson. Easily the form, most skilful and game IQ of any Oz 8. Valentini’s best and favourite position is 6, but lineouts may be an issue with Skelton, Valentini and Wilson. Will be interesting what Schmidt goes for but for me Wilson should be picked on form. Schmidt rewards work rate, skill and consistency. All that glitters every so often won’t be in contention. Greely is one of those players that has a knack of making the right decision. A coach is going to love him because he knows week in week out he’s going to get the job done. The second try Greely wasn’t the guy who made the initial break it was Flook, Greely was at the bottom of the ruck when Flook was off along the sideline. Greely got up and made the effort to catch up with play but also read the play nicely and hit the pass from Campbell at pace and then held the pass beautifully to Ryan.
6 Go to commentsSpot on Ben. Dead right. Havili looked great at 10. Easily the highest rugby IQ of any NZ player these days. Getting a kick charged down is a result of getting used to adjusting your depth to the line at 10, which he will sort out with time. But other than that it was an outstanding first effort in that position this year. I think the NZ media has misunderstood this directive from Razor. Havili might rank behind B Barrett this year, but Beuden is 33 this month and won't last much longer. DMaC is great but flaky and not really a test match animal (his efforts in Dunedin versus Aus last year for example). If Razor can't have Mounga, DMaC is too unstructured for Razor (and is just too small for test rugby). Havili will end up our first choice first five, and in partnership with Jodie will be excellent. Two triple threat operators in tandem, and big bodies and tough tacklers to boot. Jordoe will be the ABs goal kicker. I am an Aucklander and Blues (and Warriors) fan, but Havili at 10 is going to be sensational in time… he can be the best first five in the world by the end of this year. No question.
6 Go to commentsSharks deserved to be far further back by the last quarter. Their tackling was awful, their set pieces were disappointing, their defensive organization was poor (especially on the Kok side of the D line), they kept making unnecessary errors, and they never looked like cracking the Clermont defense during those first 60m. Masuku kept them in touch, with some help from the Clermont generosity on penalty opportunities. Agree with the writer of this article. It was belligerence, and ability to raise their pressure game just enough, that turned the last quarter into a Bok-style shutout. Clermont have a reputation of not playing the full 80m, and there was a bit of that for sure. But, quite often when the intensity of a team drops off in the last quarter credit is due to the opponent for tiring them out. At 60m, with the Kok try, you thought that just maybe the game was on. At 70m, with the Mapimpi contribution, one felt that Clermont were fading, while facing a team that would maintain the pressure game through the final whistle. Good win in the end, but the Sharks are still playing way below their potential. And with their resources, and a coach that has had enough time to figure things out, they are running out of excuses.
7 Go to commentsGood riddance
1 Go to commentswel the crusaders were beaten by a queensland reds side that hadnt beaten them at home since 1999 and queensland reds partied like it was 1999
6 Go to commentsHard to disagree with the 5 points - with the exception that Wilson should be a squad member but, depending on the other loose forward selections, is not yet a shoo-in. McReight is. Aussie is looking a lot better this year and JS has some selection options. Also, Havili’s tendency to get caught, charged down is also a liability at times but he seemed focused (mostly) and is definitely a consideration for utility back-up. Still feel Reihana is a better prospect at 1st five for Saders.
6 Go to commentsYeah nah, still not sure on Havili tbh. Even though I’m a Crusaders fan through and through I’d be stunned if Razor considers him after seeing some of the stunning talent coming through up North.
6 Go to commentsThink it was a great defensive performance by Northampton. They didn't have stage fright in the first half, the Nienaber defense smothered them. They limited Leinster to 15-3 in the first half. It could have been over by then. A great try from Leinster in the start of the second half looked to have sealed it. But Byrne missed another conversion. Northampton started trying little kicks behind the Leinster wingers. Leinster messed one and Smith brilliantly made the conversion. Leinster decided to tighten the game after Byrne missed a straight forward penalty. A few errors got NH into the 22 and they scored and converted with a few minutes left. Another brilliant steal from Lawes saw NH have a final attack which was turned over by Conan. A classic semi final. World record attendance of 82,300. Leinsters 3 week preparation warranted for this one.
1 Go to commentsJust came back from the game and the atmosphere was amazing. Players stayed afterwards for more than a hour to sign stuff and take photos with fans. Great day out.
7 Go to commentsA great game. The Sharks without Etsebeth are a shadow of the team compared to when he plays. The limitations of Some of the expensive Sharks players are being exposed. Credit to Clermont for some exhilaration play at times.
7 Go to comments100% Mr Owens. But who would want to be a referee.? It must be the most difficult job on earth.
1 Go to commentsStarts to be overdone and oversold this systematic SA narrative…which nevertheless has the merit in this case to recognise blatant refereeing mistakes in their favor
7 Go to commentsNice article. Shades of Steinbeck. They can win the final if they take the game seriously; but only if they take it seriously.
7 Go to commentsWhat a sad way to end a glittering career. Somebody should tell him to delete his social media accounts and face the consequences of what he's done. Then he should slip away quietly into obscurity. This isn't likely to happen, something tells me he'll be back in The Sun / Daily Mail sooner rather than later.
5 Go to commentsguys its fine! he understands why he did what he did and has taken accountability for it; why should he have to be accountable to a court? after all he did was abuse people in person - its not as if he was engaging in _online_ abuse!
5 Go to commentsChiefs flanker Kaylum Boshier yellow-carded for collapsing the scrum as it rolled towards the line. It was a maul….
1 Go to comments