There's only one team likely to cause a major upset at this World Cup - and it's not Japan or Fiji
At any one given World Cup, most matches in the group stages offer up pretty predictable outcomes.
Yes, there’s always a bit of a fight for the top spot in the pool – and it’s touch and go who will win when the Pacific teams are grouped together. By and large, however, results are fairly easy to pick.
That’s not always the case, however; sometimes there are major surprises.
At the 1999 tournament, Samoa scored an unexpected win over Wales – who ended up topping the pool.
2007 again saw Wales falling prey to the Pacific – this time in the form of the Flying Fijians (although two years of poor performances from Wales may have somewhat foretold that result).
In 2011, Tonga – who had already been bested by Canada – played out of their skins against an inconsistent French team and pulled off a 5-point win. That same French side came exceptionally close to taking out the whole tournament.
Come 2015, it was Japan’s turn to do some damage. In arguably the biggest upset in international rugby history, the Brave Blossoms scored in the final play of the game to earn their first win over the Springboks.
It’s worth noting, however, that these underdog sides have rarely gone on to post a second major upset. None of the above teams have since recorded such a major result at World Cups.
It seems that, at least since the beginning of the professional era, one big win has been enough to put the other more-fancied sides on notice.
Where tier-1 teams have been prone to putting out second-string sides to deal with the ‘minnows’ in the past, those days are now long gone.
The backup players may get their opportunities against the likes of Namibia and Uruguay now, but you can bet that Wales, France and South Africa won’t make the same mistake twice against the Pacific Nations and Japan.
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Despite all the talk that the second-tier teams are growing in stature, don’t expect to see many upsets at this World Cup.
Fiji may have a raft of physically imposing and talented players to pick from thanks to greater exposure in the Top 14, and Japan may well be on a drug called Tony Brown, but the likes of Wales and Scotland know full well what they’re dealing with.
The nature of rugby means that an even slightly more dominant team has a greater chance of winning a match-up than in a comparatively similar clash in a sport like football.
This weekend will see Fiji try to upset Australia – and many have been suggesting that the Pacific Islanders could catch the Wallabies by surprise. History tells us, however, that won’t happen.
With both sides fresh and neither facing tough opposition for at least a week following, head coaches John McKee (Fiji) and Michael Cheika (Australia) won’t be afraid to put their strongest combinations forward.
Perhaps, for many, a Fijian victory would be desirable – but it would be hard to bet against the Wallabies.
An upset seems much more plausible on the last day of pool play when Japan and Scotland square off in the final game of the group stages.
That’s not simply down to the fact that the gap between Japan and Scotland is significantly smaller than the one between Fiji and Australia, however.
Japan will be coming off a seven-day rest since their last game against Samoa. Scotland, by contrast, will have played Russia just four days prior.
Russia may be one of the weakest sides in the competition, but they’ve got some big, physical specimens who could cause some damage to the Scottish forwards.
Despite all that, Scotland should still go into the game as huge favourites.
Yes, Japan have improved significantly in recent times – but upsets have often come at times when the more-fancied sides are at a low point. Scotland, although they came 5th in this year’s Six Nations, are actually performing reasonably well at present – which is what will make this World Cup so competitive at the top end of the spectrum.
Every man and his dog (excepting those of the Scottish persuasion) will be hoping for a Japan win in the final game of the pools. Chances are, however, that Scotland will pull clear.
Taking all that into consideration, is there a fixture that involves a somewhat underrated national team that is yet to take a major scalp at a World Cup and a top-tier side that is underperforming?
Perhaps there is one match that could see an upset.
All the talk surrounding the Pacific Nations Cup this year was geared towards who would come out on top out of Japan and Fiji – but it wasn’t Fiji who ended up in a do-or-die clash with the Brave Blossoms at the end of the competition.
The USA have been slowly improving in recent times and have flown somewhat under the radar compared to the likes of Japan, Fiji and even Georgia.
The Eagles have had the wood over fellow World Cup attendees Samoa, Canada, Russia and Uruguay in the past few years and also recorded their first-ever win over a tier-1 nation when they escaped with a 1-point win over Scotland in 2018.
The belief they will have built up over the last cycle will galvanise the squad and it would be foolish to write them off against any team who is off form.
If you’re looking for a team that could fall prey to the Eagles, then look no further than France.
Since 2017, Les Bleus have drawn with Japan and lost to Fiji on their own home ground. They’ve also struggled against the higher-ranked teams and haven’t recorded a win over any of the top three Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere sides since March last year, when they narrowly bested England at the Stade de France.
There’s every chance that France will absolutely wallop the United States – the French do know how to turn it on from time to time. Even in the eight matches between the sides to date, however, France’s biggest win was only by 27 points.
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Their most recent game – way back in 2004 – ended in a victory to Les Bleus, 39-31.
France have built a reputation for winning games they should lose and losing games they should win. France should win against the USA in their Pool C clash on October 2nd – and that should be cause for concern for French supporters.
Japan and Fiji may be the darlings of world rugby right now and neutral supporters will all be gunning for the underdogs in their matches with sides like Scotland, Ireland, Australia and Wales.
If you’re looking for a game at the 2019 Rugby World Cup with a real chance of an upset, however, you’re more likely to find it early in October than at the beginning or end of the pool stages.
Comments on RugbyPass
Grt bench player..keep him there..
3 Go to commentsA Springbok 2-0 win: haha told you we were champions now shut up An Irish 2-0 win: the referee was under orders from world rugby to cheat us but luckily we don’t care because this is part of Rassie’s grand world Cup plan.
107 Go to commentsI hope they didn’t pay Jones fee?
2 Go to commentsTo be fair, the teams he's had to put out are reminiscent of those available to Gatland during his horrible run at the Chiefs in late 2020. Anyway, he's only got a two year contract and Wellingtonian Tamati Ellison will be ready by then, as will a lot of talented youngsters (like the Chiefs Gatland blooded). The Crusaders are planning for the long term.
5 Go to commentsGreat to see more community spending leading to higher participation in the community. It's a long road but that's a good first step.
2 Go to commentsPoetic justice for trying to sell him to Australia as another kiwi saviour coach, not ! Deans was just as bad actually but McCaw and Carter covered up for him. That’s why they didn’t want him as All Black coach, even after Graeme Henry’s bumbling effort in 2007.
5 Go to commentsSACK HIM !
5 Go to commentsSafas are so triggered by Ireland. 3 consecutive losses, incl RWC. 8 losses out of last 12 Tests. Always excuses, of course, with Bok fans. Now Rassie with his “88%” nonsense, the Claytons Excuse is an embarrassment to Bok teams of the past when every test mattered. Their fickle mojo will be on edge for the Ireland tour. Have the referees been appointed yet ? They will need security. Have WR laid out strict guidelines for TMO’s and replays on the stadium screens ? Will the constant stoppages from Bok forwards for cramps and bootlaces be tolerated ? We’re not talking a dominant Springbok team here, they won the LOTTO Cup and they know it whether they admit it or not. The Disney doco has their fans positively fermenting internally, its going to be a nasty hangover if they get beaten on home soil. What will the excuses be then……
107 Go to commentsGreat role model.
2 Go to commentsOne significant tell, not a single Waratahs player stopped to whinge to the ref about Finau’s tackle. They got on with playing the game. Great tackle.
8 Go to commentsWouldn’t be a bad move if Ireland pulled into SA with a young side. Particularly in Pretoria. Invaluable experience getting thumped in the bosveld.
107 Go to commentsIreland. The Princess Diana of Rugby. I never cheered so much for a team as i did for the All Blacks in that QF.
107 Go to commentsWill be great to see the Leinster first XV back in action again after their cotton wool time…
1 Go to commentsLooked up Grant Constable on google and reply was doppelgänger for Ben Smith
107 Go to commentsIt is so good that we now all get excited and debate who is best and emotionally get involved. We all back our teams which is great. Up until about 15-20 years ago, NZ was basically on its own, and then Saffa, Aussie and sometimes French and English were there. We now have at least 5-6 really top sides and another 4 who keep improving. This is so healthy. So we should not resort to rubbish comments and unhealthy debate, but rather all be chuffed that the product we watch is not competitive, exciting and often uncertain. It would be so good if World Rugger could find a way to align the rules to professional players as well as spectators. Live rugby games are SO boring as there is SO much down time as we wait for refs and TMOs and whoever else to look at every small event going back endless phases with the hope of eventually find a minute infringement to then decide cancel what was a wonderful try. This is the ultimate cork back in the bottle moment and feels like every balloon is always being popped. Come on- we must be better with the rules.
107 Go to comments“upon leaving said establishment I tripped over a stool knocking some bottles into the air and as I fell I accidently dislodged a police officer’s teaser who was passing by on an unrelated matter there by landing on said taser which caused it to discharge 50,000 watts into me. Out of shock I shouted Ireland are going to win the world cup. Upon waking up I apologised for the distress caused by my Ireland comment. The matter is closed. If you wish to pursue this matter may I remind you what I told Wayne Barnes when he sent me off. I AM A BIG ASS MAN”. Or was it “I AM A BIG ASS, MAN” or was it “I AM A BIG ASSMAN”?
2 Go to commentsThe only championship the Boks hold are: Great value for the incompetence of referees during the RWC Moaning endlessly and champions of spewing utterly ignorant 💩 at all times. Displaying the dangers of a third world education End of.
107 Go to commentsSouth Africa and Rassie do a phenomenal job of treating the 4 years in between World Cups as nothing more than a training exercise to build squad depth. The Six Nations money that keeps Irish rugby afloat is unfortunately too important to allow the same approach, and basic population size means we'll never get close to matching the depth of South Africa, England and France. That being said, Irish rugby is in a relatively good place and slowly improving inch by inch. If the other three provinces can pull the finger out and actually develop some players it'd be even better.
107 Go to commentsGood on Clarke for taking on the criticism and addressing his deficiencies, principally his laziness.
3 Go to comments“It is the people’s favourite against the actual favourite. It is the people’s champions against the actual champions. I’m joking, but it’s going to be a fantastic series.” Why did Darcy make that joke knowing it would be used as click bait? Why did RP headline it as a serious comment? Anyway, the tired comment isn’t very astute. SA players may have played more games etc. Darcy over estimated as a pundit.
107 Go to comments