The World Cup squeeze: Which All Blacks have done enough to make it to Japan?
After four years of meticulous planning, a further four tests in 2019 and a plethora of players coming and going in this World Cup cycle, All Blacks head coach Steve Hansen is primed to name his final New Zealand squad – a 31-player side to take to Japan next month.
Many of the players that are going to be named on Wednesday will have been penciled in to travel to Asia long ago, with the likes of Beauden Barrett, Ardie Savea and Rieko Ioane becoming stars under the tutelage of Hansen since the 2015 World Cup.
Together, with their sublime skill set and Hansen’s world-class coaching, the All Blacks remain one of the favourites to win the Webb Ellis Cup, although they aren’t unprecedented favourites like they were four years ago when they romped to a second successive world title in England.
Still, they will be tipped by many to return back to New Zealand with a hat-trick of world crowns to their name, but their perceived dominance in the sport doesn’t mean all 31 spots in the World Cup squad have been sewn up.
There have been plenty of individuals who have joined Barrett, Savea and Ioane in impressing since this current World Cup cycle kicked off in 2016, which should lead to no surprises being sprung in some positions when the squad is named this week.
For example, Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara and Brad Weber will all board the plane as the country’s three top halfbacks, as will first-five duo Barrett and Richie Mo’unga.
Up front, Dane Coles and Codie Taylor continue to jostle for the starting hooker role, making them key members of the team.
They will likely be joined by Otago rake Liam Coltman, although the international rookie looked shaky when he turned out in the Mitre 10 Cup on Thursday, with his lineout throwing again the main concern in his side’s 29-21 defeat to Hawke’s Bay in Napier.
It would be a shock to see the selectors take just two hookers, though, and Coltman should have done enough this year through his work rate in general play, strong ball-carrying and tidy play at the breakdown all selling points for his inclusion.
Brodie Retallick will also be named despite the fact his dislocated shoulder will probably keep him out of action until the end of pool play or the beginning of the knockout stages.
He will be accompanied by long-time second row partner Sam Whitelock, the industrious Scott Barrett and Patrick Tuipulotu – whose physically imposing showing against the Wallabies at Eden Park a fortnight ago must surely have sealed his place – as the locks.
With four locks being taken due to Retallick’s injury, that should likely free up room for five loose forwards, which is where the selection pinch will begin to be felt.
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Savea, Sam Cane and captain Kieran Read are all non-negotiable inclusions, while Matt Todd will surely go as one of two bona fide openside flankers alongside Cane.
That would allow for one more loosie – a No. 6 – and Liam Squire’s decision to come out of his self-imposed international exile may have just solidified who that final spot will belong to.
The 28-year-old wasn’t included in the All Blacks’ 39-man Rugby Championship squad after he told Hansen that he “didn’t feel ready” for test rugby, with injuries and personal issues ruining his Super Rugby campaign with the Highlanders.
However, he has returned to action emphatically in the Mitre 10 Cup with Tasman, scoring two tries in their opening three games and making a noticeable impact with his typically confrontational style of play.
His form could be transitioned into the black jersey, as Stuff is reporting that Squire wants to return to the test arena in Japan, which paves the way for Hansen to fast track him back into the national set-up.
That would see the demise of Vaea Fifita’s, Jackson Hemopo’s and Luke Jacobson’s World Cup hopes, although Fifita may already be out of contention after picking up an injury prior to Wellington’s 23-22 victory over Canterbury on Friday.
Despite being dropped for the Bledisloe Cup decider in Auckland a couple of weeks ago, 108-test veteran Owen Franks should be added as one of five props based purely on experience alone.
He may not fit Hansen’s criteria of being a mobile, ball-playing front rower, but he’s a hard hitter defensively, anchors the scrum strongly, and cleans ruck after ruck without complaint.
Joe Moody, Nepo Laulala and Ofa Tu’ungafasi are the other certainties in the propping ranks, with Angus Ta’avao seemingly the favourite to edge out test novice Atu Moli after featuring in all four of New Zealand’s tests thus far this year.
Fresh from a compelling display in Auckland’s 19-13 victory over Bay of Plenty on the weekend, Ioane also shouldn’t be dismayed at his culling from the second Bledisloe Cup test.
The power wing joined Franks and fellow outside back Ben Smith as the three high-profile omissions from the All Blacks’ 36-0 thrashing of the Wallabies on August 17 after a series of underwhelming showings in the Rugby Championship.
Ioane should have quelled concerns surrounding his form, though, after a rare outing in the Mitre 10 Cup, in which he scored a try and played a key role in setting up another.
Both he and Smith, with his 79 test matches, are too important to the national side to miss out on the World Cup squad altogether, so they, along with Jordie Barrett, whose utility value will be highly prioritised, should all be included.
Joining them in what is set to be an outside back quintet will probably be Crusaders flyers Sevu Reece and George Bridge, with their virtuoso performances at Eden Park in the absence of Ioane and Smith enough to cement their spots in Japan.
It’s a harsh call for their Super Rugby teammate Braydon Ennor, who has shown plenty of promise over the past two years and was only given 15 minutes off the bench against Argentina to show what he is made of at this level.
That leaves the midfield, which could be the most intriguing selection conundrum of all.
Like Ioane, Sonny Bill Williams has had many a doubter in recent times, with his storied injury woes at the forefront of discussions revolving around him.
However, his top-class showing against the Wallabies should have confirmed his place in the World Cup squad, meaning he’ll join Jack Goodhue and Anton Lienert-Brown as three of the four midfielders in the side, leading to a straight shootout between Ngani Laumape and the injured Ryan Crotty.
While Laumape has been in barnstorming form all year, Crotty’s versatility, experience and leadership could be enough to get him across the line.
It may be an unpopular decision to leave the powerful Laumape in New Zealand for the tournament, but when World Cup titles largely depend on experience, don’t be surprised to hear Crotty’s name read aloud on Wednesday – even after almost two months out of action.
Possible All Blacks squad for World Cup:
Dane Coles, Liam Coltman, Codie Taylor; Owen Franks, Nepo Laulala, Joe Moody, Angus Ta’avao, Ofa Tu’ungafasi; Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu, Sam Whitelock; Sam Cane, Kieran Read, Ardie Savea, Liam Squire, Matt Todd; TJ Perenara, Aaron Smith, Brad Weber; Beauden Barrett, Richie Mo’unga; Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, Anton Lienert-Brown, Sonny Bill Williams; Jordie Barrett, George Bridge, Rieko Ioane, Sevu Reece, Ben Smith.
Rugby World Cup city guide – Fukuoka:
Comments on RugbyPass
How did it end a draw. South Africa didn’t score any points as far as I can see
2 Go to commentsNo doubt this will be a fantastic occasion and I plan to be there, but I think the bean counters have won out over the rugby brains. In my opinion, it is foolhardy to give the Black Ferns the experience of playing in front of 60,000+ at Twickenham a year before they might be playing there in a World Cup Final. Better to play France at Twickenham and Black Ferns at Kingsholm. The difference in takings would be miniscule.
1 Go to commentsDom kant
191 Go to commentsBen is a little incel desperately trying to stir the pot and stay relevant. We used to get mad at his articles. Now we just feel sorry for him
191 Go to commentsPerhaps we may need to put an asterisk on NZ’s ‘87 WC win since the Boks weren’t there. You know, just as a reminder. Poor Ben Smith. Go cry somewhere else.
191 Go to commentsNz should have won. I didn't watch the game, but the ref was at fault and the bounce of the ball and the Bokke used the Bomb squad and the Bokke slow the game down and the Bokke scrum. They should remove the scrum. The Bokke are to strong. Not fair. Nz should have won
2 Go to commentsThanks for a much more balanced piece Ned and not that BS that Bin Smuth just posted a short while ago. read this article and then Bin Smuth’s and tell me there isn’t a huge difference🙄
2 Go to commentsWere the Baby Boks part of this game or did the Baby Blacks play themselves?🤔 That man Bin Smuth once again does a little write-up on the game and it is like 95% about the Baby Blacks🤣 Glad he ends off with the Baby Blacks were actually in cruise control for most of the game and weren’t actually playing for the win WTF🤣🤣 Maybe he was expecting the Baby Blacks to run rampant….
2 Go to commentsOne does not expect anything more from Ben Smith who epitomises the worst of New Zealand media arrogance and an inability to balance what he has to say about any team that beats the All Blacks. His reference to context is pathetically thin. He does not comment that Frizell deserved a red card given his blatant manipulation of his body to ensure that he could drop his body weight onto Mbonambi’s lower leg. No mention of the ball lost forward before the All Black’s try (lost in-field of the 5 metre line and gathered beyond). The All Black commitment and effort was superb and there was little in it. Given the Springbok passage to the final and the loss of their hooker in the first three minutes, their resolve and capacity to win their fourth final out of eight attempts (not three out of ten) deserves the praise that has been forthcoming from media around the world, worth reading and listening to. Ben should join his “pundit” friends on TV - he would fit in well. This sort of article reduces any credibility Rugby Pass has ever had. Why persist with this sort of nonsense? The man does his country and a rugby blog a disservice.
191 Go to commentsEtzebeth went on to say: “I would never dream of saying that systems stay in place following a change in captain. To say that would be deeply, deeply, disrespectful of Siya. A while back an Irish person told me they would be fine without Sexton, so I’m just responding to that.”
3 Go to commentsClose games are what we want to see…. What a match it was…. I am sure that everyone was drained by the end of it. The reality of it all there has to be a winner and a loser. The fact that we still talking about it is almost 6 months to the day Rugby is the winner.. Asante sana… Here is to 2027 and what it will bring out.
191 Go to commentsIt’s going to be a good game. COYQ
1 Go to comments“Shock”, the guy was casually saying he was just slightly surprised. Nowadays if you say anything it gets taken completely out of context. Calm down everyone.
156 Go to commentsAll I can say after reading this bitter, sour, sad piece is… Thank you very much! This will be read in the change room just before kick off on 31 August…
191 Go to commentsLook, we know contradicting opinions and wacky comments bring readers and clicks, so well done to RP for allowing always-wrong-Ben to say something here. However RP needs to put a disclaimer next to his comments for their own credibility. NZ was and is incapable of acknowledging their opp beating them. They refused so with Ire and with Arg in 2022 and also the Boks in 2023 x 2. Nothing Ben says here holds water, NZ attacked backwards, except when Kolisi and Kolbe was off And cyncialy took out Bongi, we played without lineouts for 75mins. Kolisi and Kurt-Lee almost scored twice. Thats 3 vs 2 for Boks, but the Boks opportunities was legal. Boks should have been 16-3 up by half time. Tacticaly the Boks attacked better defended better scrummed better (without a hooker) kicked better and crossed the whitewash more times. Boks beat Fr Eng Nz to win in 23, comeon give some credit at least. Even Federer Verstappen NY Mets, Mamoa, was able to see a great human sport achievement by the Boks and their DNA Boks #RWC27 !🏉
191 Go to commentsForget the 85kg bit, that can become something else. However I do like the one off test on ANZAC day idea. SR plays Fri/ Sat, test players travel Sunday and the squads have the full week together before playing Saturday. Rest of SR has a week off. Either involve women's teams in same location or in the other country and rotate annually. Herbert is right in that change is needed.
3 Go to commentsI’ve read loads of nonsense before but this article takes the cake. Or perhaps someone changed the date for April Fool's Day.
3 Go to commentsReally Rugbypass? Ben Smith I think you forgot what the Springboks did to the All Blacks at Twickenham 8 weeks earlier? Springboks 35 All Blacks 7. There is alot of ifs and buts in your article. The All Blacks threw the sink at the Springboks and unfortunately they were not good enough regardless if they played with 14 men or not. It was the Springboks who forced the All Blacks to make mistakes! Sorry but not Sorry the Springboks is the best ever Rugby World Cup Nation in the world. 4 Cups baby!
191 Go to commentsYou just backed the Boks with that fantastic review! Well done! Have some cake!
191 Go to commentsBen Smith please write up something better than this. The Springboks would have won the world cup if you were 15 men on the field. They would have found a way, they always find a way to beat the All Blacks.
191 Go to comments