The search for New Zealand's next top first five has begun
New Zealand have a habit of blooding players in key positions immediately after a Rugby World Cup.
In 2008, Stephen Donald was brought into the mix and eventually played a major role in New Zealand winning their first World Cup in 24 years when he was called upon for the 2011 final.
In 2012, Beauden Barrett earned his first cap and although he played primarily in the outside backs for the national side, it was always at 10 where the coaches saw his long-term future.
In 2016, it was Damian McKenzie’s turn. Like Barrett, McKenzie was viewed as a player who could cover both fullback and first five. He’s now seemingly found a home for himself at the back of the field and it would take a brave man not to pick him as the All Blacks’ starting 15 for the first Test of the year in July.
Unlike in 2011, 2015 and 2019, however, New Zealand took just two flyhalves to the 2019 World Cup: Barrett and Richie Mo’unga.
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Jordie Barrett was called upon to wear 10 in the All Blacks’ 71-9 victory over Namibia but Mo’unga started in the playmaker position for every other match of the tournament.
Had McKenzie been fit, he likely would have been in the squad too – but he’s certainly more of a 15 that can cover 10 than vice-versa.
Unlike in previous years, New Zealand haven’t lost any first fives overseas in the cyclical post-World Cup exodus.
As such, there’s no one that actually needs replacing – but that doesn’t mean Ian Foster won’t be on the look out for a new player to fill the boots of Barrett or Mo’unga in due course.
Realistically, Barret, Mo’unga and McKenzie will likely all be available for the All Blacks in 2023, with Barrett the oldest at just 28-years-old. For reference, Dan Carter was 33 at the 2015 World Cup.
New Zealand’s greatest strength over some other rugby-playing nations, however, is that no player’s spot is guaranteed – there’s always something nipping at your heels, forcing you to be better.
And that’s exactly who Foster will be searching for; a young, up-and-coming prospect that can bring the best out of the relatively experienced trio that the All Blacks currently have in their possession.
At present, however, it’s not exactly clear who that prospect will be.
Starting in the deep south, the Highlanders have on their books the player with arguably the best chance at really pushing the current incumbents, Josh Ioane.
Ioane was called into the All Blacks squad at the start of 2019 but it wasn’t until New Zealand’s warm-up match with Tonga in September that he finally took the field.
What does it take to become an All Black 10? New Zealand looks for a specific type, and it seems to produce a lot of them. @bensmithrugby https://t.co/NsNX6cSdrT
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) December 5, 2019
That’s not dissimilar to how his Highlanders predecessor, Lima Sopoaga, was first called up to the national side.
Sopoaga earned an All Blacks call-up in 2015 for the Rugby Championship and was handed a debut against the Springboks in Johannesburg – one of the toughest assignments in international football. Sopoaga passed the test with flying colours and was one of New Zealand’s best performers in the 27-20 win.
The Wellington-born flyhalf wasn’t needed for the World Cup later that year, however, despite his obvious credentials. With Dan Carter, Beauden Barrett and Colin Slade all fit, Sopoaga was left in New Zealand – and was probably behind the injured Aaron Cruden in the pecking order too.
Unlike Sopoaga, who had won a Super Rugby title with the Highlanders and banked plenty of experience at that level, Ioane was still a relative newbie when he made his debut.
Sopoaga forced his way into the All Blacks on the back of being ready to play international rugby. Ioane, on the other hand, was basically the last 10 standing in the country and Steve Hansen and his fellow selectors were desperate for a backup.
That’s not to say that Ioane isn’t incredibly talented, but he’ll need to seriously step up his game in 2020 if he wants a spot in the national team.
That’s going to be especially tricky for the 24-year-old as Aaron Mauger, Ioane’s Super Rugby coach, has seen fit to shift him to the midfield for the opening rounds of Super Rugby.
Starting out in the midfield before moving closer to the action isn’t a bad option for a wannabe-flyhalf, but it doesn’t bode well for a player to be heading in the opposite direction.
With Ioane at 12, former Crusader Mitch Hunt has taken the reins at first five.
Hunt, who has spent his short Super Rugby career camped behind Mo’unga, has shifted south for more game time and that’s brought immediate dividends for the Tasman product, starting the last three matches (including one pre-season game) at 10.
Richie Mo'unga has been #SuperRugby's top first five over the last three years but that's been helped by the incredible pack at the @CrusadersRugby. He won't have that luxury in 2020, writes @TomVinicombe. https://t.co/MpDhMB0lAY
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) January 15, 2020
Hunt’s never really been in discussions concerning the national squad but that’s effectively been a product of his gametime being incredibly limited at the Crusaders.
The former New Zealand Under 20 player (he shared the first five duties with Otere Black) could make a genuine play for a spot in the All Blacks now that he’s regularly starting in the 10 jersey.
At Hunt’s old franchise, Mo’unga’s back-up hasn’t had much luck to start the season off.
Despite having Brett Cameron, a one-cap All Black, on the books, coach Scott Robertson opted to start utility David Havili against the Chiefs with Mo’unga nursing a minor injury.
Cameron has yet to showcase the ability that saw him called into the 2018 All Blacks touring squad for the Crusaders.
In 2019, Cameron started just one Super Rugby match: the Crusaders’ loss against the Waratahs. He managed just 104 minutes in total and, by the end of the season, had been usurped as Mo’unga’s back-up by Hunt.
With Havili preferred to Cameron for last weekend’s game, it doesn’t appear that stars are aligning yet for Canterbury’s next top first five.
Perhaps if Cameron were to follow Hunt’s lead and head elsewhere, he might have more luck.
The Hurricanes, in particular, look like they could sorely use a commander with a high ceiling.
In 2019, the Hurricanes trialled both Fletcher Smith and Jackson Garden-Bachop at 10 when Beauden Barrett was unavailable.
Neither player exactly took their chances and with Barrett now in Auckland, it’s anyone’s guess who’s going to take the lead in 2020.
Smith, who has been one of the best players in the Mitre 10 Cup over the last two seasons, had a horrible performance against the Stormers in round one (but so did everyone else in the team) while Garden-Bachop was tidy against the Jaguares but didn’t exactly set the backline alight.
It’s early days yet, but neither player looks destined for Super Rugby greatness and the mid-20-year-olds are not exactly spring chickens anymore, with plenty of 20 and 21-year-old playmakers coming through the ranks.
In Chiefs country, it’s the return of 31-year-old Aaron Cruden that’s causing waves.
Cruden departed New Zealand’s shores at the end of 2017 after ceding his starting role at the All Blacks to Beauden Barrett.
A World Cup win in 2023 would be one of the greatest achievements for NZR. The annual results at under-20 level highlight a far more competitive landscape heading towards France, writes @bensmithrugby https://t.co/IAHvRVX2YB
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) November 10, 2019
Despite Barrett’s elevation, Cruden was always a more natural playmaker from 10 and although he had a torrid time in France, the little general doesn’t appear to have lost any of the spark and control that helped the Chiefs to two titles in 2012 and 2013.
Cruden, however, is not going to be travelling to the 2023 World Cup. He’s already signed a contract to play in Japan at the end of the current Super Rugby season and even if he were to renege on that deal, he’ll lose some of the acceleration and agility that currently makes him such a threat at first-receiver.
If Cruden had been playing for the Chiefs in 2019 then he may well have found himself in the All Blacks squad for the World Cup but as there’s nothing of comparable magnitude on the line in 2020, his time in the national side is over.
Foster will be excited to have Cruden back in the country regardless because he will provide plenty of mentoring and support to the Chiefs’ other first fives, the inexperienced duo of Kaleb Trask and Tiaan Falcon.
Both players have the potential to achieve great things for their club and possibly even country, but they’re at least a few seasons away from being ready for Test rugby.
Which leaves us with the Blues; New Zealand’s perennial strugglers over the last fifteen years.
The Blues, as anyone on the street will be quick to tell you, have been desperate for a high-quality first five-eight for the longest time. They’ve finally managed to do the impossible and lure Beauden Barrett north, but he won’t feature for the franchise until part-way through the year (and still has a season-long sabbatical to take at some point too).
From the All Blacks’ point of view, that’s actually a very good thing.
It gives Barrett the time to freshen up but, possibly more importantly, it presents opportunities to the Blues’ young flyhalves to assert themselves at Super Rugby level.
Beauden Barrett is undoubtedly a huge signing for the @BluesRugbyTeam, but there are a number of other playmakers in the side that will need to step up before Barrett arrives late in the @SuperRugby season, writes @TomVinicombe.https://t.co/VxCLFO2vzp#SuperRugby
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) January 5, 2020
Stephen Perofeta’s career to date has been plagued by injury but the 22-year-old is finally free for ailments and is has clocked up plenty of minutes for the Blues in their two fixtures this year.
Those minutes haven’t exactly been mind-blowing, with the Taranki pivot’s decision-making and strategic kicking below par against the Chiefs and his goal-kicking incredibly wayward in both matches (however wind likely played a large part in his hiccups against the Waratahs).
Still, Perofeta has always promised plenty and now the young man finally has the chance to prove his worth.
Harry Plummer, who’s sat on the bench for the opening two rounds, is another who actually looks like he has the potential to take the step up to the next level at some point – but that’s all dependant on actually getting on the park.
The situation is further complicated by Otere Black, who has been injured since the season began but was the Blues’ chief playmaker in 2019.
Black moved north from the Hurricanes to escape Barrett’s shadow, but he could well find himself pushed out of the Blues altogether when the All Blacks first five is finally available for selection.
Nation-wide, it’s clear that there are plenty of young 10s with the potential to one day play for the All Blacks but none that really look ready for international rugby as yet.
Perhaps Foster won’t follow his predecessors’ steps and blood a new first five in the first year after a World Cup – perhaps the best plan is to simply wait and see who emerges in time for the next tournament in 2023.
With Beauden Barrett, Richie Mo’unga, Damian McKenzie and Jordie Barrett all on the books for 2020, the All Blacks have plenty of coverage in the 10 jersey and now may not be the best time to bring a new playmaker into the fold – but flyhalf-turned-coach Ian Foster will certainly be keeping his eye on the young talent making waves in Super Rugby this year.
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Comments on RugbyPass
But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
13 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
13 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
1 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
13 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
13 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
13 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
13 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to comments