The All Blacks might finally have a bruising No.12 in their midfield
Since the retirement of Sonny Bill Williams after the 2019 Rugby World Cup, the All Blacks have not had a gain line machine to plug into their midfield.
Blessed through the 2010s with the great Ma’a Nonu and ‘SBW’, the All Blacks had two of the greatest midfielders the game has seen. Their absence has been felt against some of the more physical Test teams of the modern era.
After Nonu, Steve Hansen had a tendency to always start Williams against the Springboks. There was a reason why. His strong running and big frame were suited to a direct game plan that the Boks demanded. Williams might not have even been in the starting line-up the week before, but when the team was named for South Africa, you could count on SBW in the No.12 jersey.
Since then, the All Blacks have produced what you would call all-rounders, multi-positional midfielders. The modern era has produced supercharged defences at the very time the All Blacks have lacked a genuine power option in the midfield.
Anton Lienert-Brown, with 85 Test caps, has been a regular, playing across both midfield positions. A great defender with distribution and vision, Lienert-Brown is a safe option but not a game breaker in terms of speed and power.
At the start of the 2020s, ALB was moved to No.12 to form a partnership with Crusaders centre Jack Goodhue, but neither could stay healthy when the other was available.
Recently recalled All Black Quinn Tupaea was tried across 2021-22 before injury derailed his Test career. In late 2022, the bold move came to shift then-fullback Jordie Barrett back to the midfield, where he had started his pro career. Rieko Ioane completed his transition into centre, and the Barrett-Ioane combination became the best New Zealand had.
Barrett is a phenomenal rugby player cut from top-tier pedigree. After a stellar season with Leinster, Barrett remains the All Blacks’ top option at second five-eighth.
But what the All Blacks need is different line-ups for different opponents, and Timoci Tavatavanawai might be the man to fit the mould of a power midfielder that they have been missing. Ex-All Black Justin Marshall described him as ‘Ma’a Nonu on steroids’.
Both AJ Lam and Crusaders captain David Havili were overlooked which was somewhat of a surprise. Lam was with the squad at the end of 2024 and Havili has close ties with Robertson.
The selection of Tavatavanawai indicates the All Blacks recognise they need something else after losing close matches to South Africa and France in 2024.
As a winger for Moana Pasifika in 2022, Tavatavanawai was the competition’s hardest man to tackle. He had 73 defenders beaten, the most in Super Rugby Pacific. In 2023 he produced 72 defenders beaten, good for second in the competition behind Mark Tele’a (who cracked triple figures with 102).
In his second season with the Highlanders this year, Tavatavanawi moved to the midfield for the first time in his Super Rugby career, and once again claimed the defenders beaten crown for the season with 78. The Fijian has a unique ability to put bodies on the floor.
When compared to the other candidates at No.12, the Blues’ AJ Lam actually ranks the highest across three categories: dominant carry %, gain line success, and drawing multiple tacklers (2+).
Player | Dominant Carry % | Gain Line Success % | Draw 2+ tacklers % |
Timoci Tavatavanawai (Highlanders) | 34.4% | 51.7% | 71.6% |
Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs) | 43.5% | 62.7% | 67.5% |
Jordie Barrett (Leinster) | 39.0% | 59.2% | 52.1% |
David Havili (Crusaders) | 27.7% | 60.7% | 45.2% |
AJ Lam (Blues) | 59.5% | 80.7% | 75.9% |
But while Lam draws multiple defenders more than Tavatavanawai, he doesn’t beat as many defenders as the Fijian (34 vs 78). That is the lethal combination. Drawing them and beating them.
The Highlanders’ co-captain also ranked second in the competition in offloads behind Sevu Reece, which adds another dimension. If he can punch through defensive lines, draw multiple defenders and promote the ball, what could that do for a speedster like Rieko Ioane outside of him?
Ioane had a distinct lack of line breaks this season, and Lam was not a big offloader of the ball, with just two all season. Ioane cleared 101 attacking rucks this season, one of the highest totals for a 13.
But perhaps Tavatavanawai’s biggest drawcard over the other options is the ability to generate breakdown turnovers. His performance against the Blues earlier in the season gained global attention.
Across the world this season, only Jack Willis at Toulouse has more breakdown steals (27) from 171 defensive rucks. Tavatavanawai has 25 steals from 119 defensive ruck involvements; a much higher steal rate.
There is no midfielder in the world who is comparable in this area of the game, only loose forwards. Another debutant call-up, Du’Plessis Kirifi, sits third globally with 22 breakdown steals.
Having that kind of threat in the midfield is a big deterrent for the opposition. So many first-phase plays involve running a crash ball into or around the 10’s channel. With Tavatavanawai at 12, that becomes a huge risk.
The more dominant the carry into the 10 channel, the better for the All Blacks, as the ball carrier becomes increasingly isolated next to the best poacher in world rugby. With Kirifi in the line-up also, that becomes even more so.
To be able to take away possession first phase in red zone areas literally takes away points from the opposition. At Test level, this is extremely valuable.
The selection of Tavatavanawai by the All Blacks is one of the most exciting decisions they have made in a long time. He’s a unique weapon that brings completely new elements into the mix.
While Jordie Barrett will remain the top option at No.12, there are specific teams that Tavatavanawai can cause major headaches for. And that is why he had to be picked.
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Jordie needs to play 80 mins as our primary goal kicker. He plays 55-60 mins, Tim comes on at 12 and Jordie back to 15. Jordan goes to wing
Whoever they pick, it will take time (unless it’s Jordie/Billy) for the combination to gel.
It that’s ok. The NZ rugby public are a patient lot…
JEEZ. I’ve been saying this for many, many years now.
We desperately need gaineline punch at 12 to get defenses back peddling and turning inwards for our outside backs. It’s not jordie I’m afraid.
Btw. Where have those stats come from?
I thought that AB selections last year were very conservative and the vast majority of debuts were injury forced. Hopefully we will see some innovation this year and make greater use of the talent available.
An exciting thing about the players selected is that several can fill other positions effectively as well. As one example Ioane was a fine winger whose attacking skills were lost to a large degree at centre, but still solid in a defensive role.
I’m licking my lips at the idea of a TT-BP midfield. Just the amount of x-factor these 2 have combined is insane.
Remains to be seen which combination is employed and against which opposition. Whilst attacking midfields are desirable it should be noted that they also need to be able to defend as well. Where are the stats for defence ??
Tbh those stats on chart kind of prove why I thought AJ Lam was going to be in but not mad
Yes and who’s blaming who? AJ for Rieko’s inability to run a good support line, or Rieko for AJ’s head down approach?
I’ve seen Rieko try and get into a good support position more often this year I reckon but I’m not sure the ball was given to him once when doing it. Still not as often as someone like Jordan who’s constantly shooting past and through the defensive line while the ball carrier is still deciding what to do with the ball. They could all learn from Will.
On that note I think Big Jims short ball/hand off game can transition well to International footy
Laumape was explosive, and Tupaea before the grub swain destroyed his career.
Swain should have had criminal charges for that. Disgusting behavior.