Scarlets attacking system's failure could prove invaluable for Wales
“It’s fine to celebrate success but it is more important to heed the lessons of failure.”
Bill Gates did not have Welsh rugby in mind when he uttered those words, but they certainly proved prophetic for Wayne Pivac and Stephen Jones this week.
Defeat to Ospreys in the West Wales derby on Saturday was the Scarlets’ fourth in a row in December and their fifth loss in their last six matches.
It was certainly not how the coaches would have wanted to celebrate confirmation that Jones will join Pivac’s Wales backroom team following September’s Rugby World Cup.
That move was made public on Wednesday, two days after Sir Clive Woodward had used his Daily Mail column to suggest the Scarlets had lost focus in the final year of Pivac’s reign.
If – and it is a big if – the Kiwi coach’s attention had drifted towards his future role with Wales, even slightly, then it would only be natural for the Scarlets to experience a slight drop in intensity.
However, concentration was not an issue at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday, where the decision to play Hadleigh Parkes at fly-half, and employ a more robust kicking game, did not come off.
The Wales centre looked ponderous in possession and on occasion found himself out of position, but while Rhys Patchell was on the pitch he was able to keep the visitors in the ascendancy.
Once the full-back was forced off through injury, though, the Scarlets lost control of the match and Sam Davies, playing opposite Parkes, managed the game superbly to guide the Ospreys home.
Defeat leaves the Scarlets third in Conference B, but despite the protestations of Woodward few in Wales will have any doubt that the Welsh Rugby Union has selected the right man to replace Warren Gatland next year.
10 – Hadleigh Parkes will start at fly half for @scarlets_rugby for the first time this weekend, he's started at 11, 12, 13 and 14 since he arrived in Wales in 2014. Versatile. pic.twitter.com/dkvSG80M3h
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) December 21, 2018
On the contrary, as Gates noted above, the travails currently facing Pivac and Jones at the Parc y Scarlets may well prove invaluable when they move east to the Principality Stadium.
Scarlets fans will, of course, expect there to be renewed focus on the training pitch ahead of the remaining Welsh derbies this Christmas, and there will be no-one working harder to put things right than Jones.
Described by Dai Young as a “student of the game” when he left Wasps in 2015, the former British and Irish Lion’s career, both as a coach and player, has been defined by a desire for self-improvement.
In his playing days, Jones left the comfort of Llanelli and the Scarlets to challenge himself at Clermont and returned to Wales a more accomplished fly-half.
As a coach, he cut his teeth in the more pragmatic surroundings of the Premiership and Wasps before returning home to learn an expansive game under Pivac.
There was a feeling among Wasps fans that he left the club too early, just as things were beginning to click, but in both jobs he improved as a coach – and the team became more potent.
In Jones’ first year at Wasps, Young’s team scored 48 tries in the Premiership. In his second they scored 77.
The Scarlets too had improved year-on-year ahead of this season, breaching the goal line 45 times in the 2015-16 regular season campaign, 66 times in 2016-17 and 69 times last term.
It could be argued that the team’s struggles this season prove that teams have worked out how to contain their off-loading game but that is not necessarily a bad thing for Jones as he prepares to coach his country’s backs.
Scarlets had been something of an anomaly at club level, opposition teams not used to facing sides that played like them. Tight turnarounds, in turn, made it difficult for clubs to get to grips with their style.
According to one coach RugbyPass spoke to this week, Bath trained for just 20 minutes against the Scarlets’ system before playing them in the Champions Cup last season. That result – at The Rec – was a crushing bonus-point defeat.
However, Jones and Pivac can expect tier one Test defences to be much more prepared. It is perhaps telling that in the two biggest games of the Scarlets’ 2017-18 season – both against Leinster at Aviva Stadium – the Irish province starved their opponents of possession and kept them pinned in their own 22 for long spells.
Wales played with less than 50 per cent possession and territory in their recent wins over Australia and South Africa, and the incoming coaching team must find a way to do the same.
Jones will know the challenge he faces. “Our duty is to have the ability to play more than one way. Yes, you have your spine, your philosophy, but you have to have variety. It’s as simple as that,” he said in an interview with WalesOnline.
“You have to be able to go around a team, through a team, over a side, it doesn’t change.”
Saturday proved that Scarlets have more than one, exciting dimension to their play, but they were hamstrung by Patchell’s injury and lost the second-half kicking battle.
Jones will want to remind Wales of what his team is capable of against the Cardiff Blues next weekend. Come through this sticky patch and the future looks bright.
The more expansive way in which Wales have played of late can be traced to the Parc y Scarlets, and Jones seems to be a perfect fit. He has coached, or played with, the spine of the current side.
Scarlets might be wobbling heading into the New Year but there can be no doubt that Wales – and Pivac – have appointed the right guy to guide their backs.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Nick, and totally correct. Definately too many teams which is unfortunately an effect of the 21st century hubris that began after our 2nd World Cup win. Honestly we weren't like that before then. If NZ beat us in a Rugby League or cricket series (which has occasionally happened) they don't all of a sudden think they are our equal or even better than us. Unfortunately for Australia, we got carried away with ourselves and wanted to jump from 4th biggest football code to biggest…in 5 minutes. More teams, more matches against the All Blacks (so we could beat them even more). Bring it on. It’s been all down hill since then. Assuming Melbourne are gone, there are very good reasons to keep the remaining 4 in SR, or so it would seem. The Force?…wronged previously, and have $s. Surely not. The Brumbies?….easily the best performed. Surely not. The Waratahs?….most players (50%) and most followers. Surely not. The Reds?….easily the best current team, and nearly as many players and followers as the Waratahs. Surely not. I’d argue that based on how strong the combined Reds n Rebs would be and how strong a combined team of all of the other Oz SR teams would be, we have players for 2 teams…..which would be good. Good enough for a propper SR competition…or maybe good enough for Japan….if they’ll have us. Existing SR teams?….keep them and have them play a second tier…or maybe NZ's NRC….if they'll have us. This is biting the bullet. We have the cattle
1 Go to commentsbest news and very helpful
4 Go to commentsA year ago Ireland and France looked impressive. In this 6N neither looked special. Both have lost good players, but more importantly teams have figured out how to shut them down. In particular the Irish loss to a rebuilding England and the home game struggle against a brave Scotland did nothing to prove that the Irish RWC result was undeserved. If the Scots can shut down the Irish attack, then SA can do so with interest. Rassie will have watched that game with confidence. Farrell is smart, and the Irish team is talented, so we should expect a more creative game plan in SA. But if all they bring is what they showed against Scotland then Ireland is going to struggle against the Boks. It was a fun 6N tournament, but the win for Ireland was as much about weak competition as about Irish brilliance. It was mostly due to France being off the boil, Wales and Italy not being contenders, and Scotland being a home game. England are looking much better, but “much better” should not be enough to topple a team that is supposed by some to be The Best in the World. I hope that Ireland can bump it up a notch or two for the Bok tour. A year ago they were fantastic to watch. It would be great to see that again.
24 Go to commentsLooking forward to the Wallabies being competitive again. No doubt that Joe can get them back on track.
1 Go to commentsThanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.
43 Go to commentsGreat story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
43 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
24 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
43 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
43 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
4 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments