Loose lips sink ships and maybe England
The Black Ferns last press conference before the World Cup final was loose. It swung from Put?ruru to ?kato to the West Coast and included discussions about Celine Dion, Marvel Movies, and reverse drop goals by prop Krystal Murray.
Ruby Tui was at her freewheeling best while veterans Kendra Cocksedge and Black Ferns Director of Rugby Wayne Smith were lucid and relaxed.
Was the humour a deflection away from the serious proposition of toppling England? Not likely. It was in tune with the Black Ferns engaging and entertaining ‘vibe’ throughout the tournament.
Statistics paint a stark picture however and suggest the Red Roses should prevail. Winners of a world record 30 consecutive Tests, England boast a combined 1123 Test caps compared with the Black Ferns 409. Inspirational captain Sarah Hunter debuted in 2007 and has played more Tests than the entire Black Ferns pack. A host nation has never won the World Cup and England beat the hosts twice last year 43-12 and 56-15.
It’s true the Black Ferns lead the head to head count 18-11, and that includes World Cup final wins in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2017. They are a faultless 10-0 at Eden Park.
Contemporary England have shown though they can shut out games, run opposition ragged or simply stuff them in the forwards with structured, clinical, uncompromising execution, coupled with precise territorial kicking. Coach Simon Middleton remarked:
“With success comes scrutiny and the inevitable pressure that brings with it. This squad has stood up to all of that and more and that is testimony to their ability, resilience, and unwavering belief in each other. When things get tough, this team knows how to get going, that is why we are relishing Saturday and all that it will bring.”
Asked if the sold out crowd at Eden Park would be intimidating for his side he replied: “It will be more intimidating for them. To lose in front of your home crowd is a tough gig. So, the pressure on them is absolutely massive.”
With a wry smile Smith refuted that statement a couple of hours later by saying, “Look, I’ve been coaching for 36 years, he’s just a newcomer – he’s trying to put pressure on an old fella.”
England will pressure the forwards. That we know. Their lineout is brutally efficient, winning double the number of lineouts the Black Ferns have while poaching 16 steals from the opposition and scoring a bundle of tries. Hooker Amy Cokayne scored a hat-trick against the Black Ferns last year from mauls while locks Zoe Aldcroft and Abbie Ward have been exceptional.
The Red Roses discipline is marginally better conceding 42 penalties compared to the Black Ferns 51. The back row of Alex Matthews, Marlie Packer and Hunter are disruptive and precise at the breakdown, an area where France had a significant edge for long periods in the semi-final against the Black Ferns.
The Black Ferns have been forced to make one change to their loose forward trio with Liana Mikaele Tu’u ruled out with a thumb injury. That opens the door for Charmaine McMenamin to start. Joanah Ngan-Woo, a perfectly capable loose forward, is surprisingly overlooked for the starting XV again.
It’s a testament to McMenamin’s courage that she is playing the tournament at all after an arduous battle with injury, but hasn’t she been a little underwhelming? Furthermore, the continued benching of co-captain Kennedy Simon suggests she is not yet fit enough to last a full 80 minutes.
Enough pessimism. How will the Black Ferns win the game? The way New Zealand teams always have through heart and ingenuity.
Obviously, their forwards must front and there were some bright moments against France last Saturday. Under siege in the first quarter, the defence resisted bravely and only conceded a solitary try.
Later a memorable scrum penalty was won. Before the Theresa Fitzpatrick try, a 15-metre rolling maul helped create momentum. There was a notable improvement in the ruck tussle as the game evolved.
The Black Ferns are at their best when the game is moving at a quick pace and is unscripted. This is what Smith calls “our DNA.” Against France there were long periods of confined pressure. Shortly after halftime, Ruby Tui scored an unlikely try, and the Black Ferns soon had 15 unanswered points in a flash.
Subdued on the bleak Northern Tour in 2021, Ruahei Demant has captained her country to ten consecutive victories. She has made a tournament leading 12 offload and commented following her Mastercard Player of the Match award in the 56-12 romp of Wales in Wait?kere.
“I’m always looking for the space and we have so many genuine threats and options and we play to our strengths and know each other’s strengths. It’s amazing to be able to trust the players on my outside and have clear specific communication and getting lightning quick ball from rucks and good delivery from my half-backs gives us such a good platform to attack off.”
If the tempo is swift and the flow unpredictable England could crumble when subjected to chaos they haven’t seen since the 2017 final.
Hockey great Wayne Gretzky once said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”
The Black Ferns will push that pass or ignore a kick when it appears the more sensible option. High risk, high reward. Will England be as daring if their hand is forced? Sure, Abby Dow scored an absolute classic try against Canada six days ago but otherwise England was cautiously calculated or retreating into defence.
It might sound smug but if you asked the average New Zealander on the street to name more than three Red Roses they’d struggle. Kiwis have been spoiled when it comes to rugby success for a long time. For England to be truly respected among average rugby punters in this country they need to win and win well. Do that and they could be recognised in the same breath as names like Wilkinson or Gregan or afforded similar plaudits to the Irish men recently.
Comments on RugbyPass
Don’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
9 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
33 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
2 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
33 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
49 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
33 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
33 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
33 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
33 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
1 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to commentsObscene that SA haven’t been knocking
1 Go to commentsChances of Blackadder being injured seem too high to give him serious consideration. ABs loosie combination finally looked good with 2 committed to tackling and clearing rucks in the centre and Ardie roaming. Hoskins/Ardie together would force one of them into where they don’t excel and don’t get to use their talent, or require a change in tactics. If we continue to evolve last years systems I would take Papali’i and Finau at 6 and 7 (conceding that Blackadder will be injured) and Ardie at 8.
33 Go to commentsArdie’s preferred position 7? Where do they get these writers from? I've no idea where he's playing in Japan, but the previous two seasons he wore the 7 jersey exactly twice.
17 Go to commentsNot good to hear Ulster described as “financially troubled”. Did not think it was getting to that level. I would hope the Irish system of spreading players of talent away from Leinster would kick in now. Better to have a Leinster fringe player with Ulster or Connacht, then getting only a few games a season in Dublin. 10, for example, would seem to be a case for spreading the talent. I would not be at all adverse to a SA man coming in as head coach/DR. Ludeke is worth trying. Certainly got a long and impressive coaching career at this level…..149 games in SR, then Japan, 30 years experience. And Ulster’s ledger of successful SA coaches and players is on the positive side. Is talk of Ruan Pienaar interested in coming back as a coach…..could be a good combination with Ludeke. And Pienaar and family would have no settling in to do, one would judge. He loved life in Ulster when there, by all reports.
1 Go to comments