'New Zealand are underdogs. You can't play 30 unbeaten tests and not be the favourites.'
It just speaks of how far women’s rugby has come to see two semi-finals like we did last weekend. I think a lot of people were actually quite surprised, me included in terms of the level, the speed, the intensity and how tight they were. For me, you expect those types of games perhaps in isolation, but not in the middle of a tournament when you’re already four games in. I thought it was just remarkable.
But that France v New Zealand game. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game finish in that fashion. On one hand you’re like, heartbreak for France, and then on the other it’s like, fair play, New Zealand. The transformation they’ve had in less than a year has been incredible.
In a press conference earlier in the week Sarah Hirini said the pressure is off the Black Ferns going into the final because they’d ‘already won.’ I have to say I totally agree with that. They have already won in a sense.
New Zealand have an excuse not to win at the weekend. Which is that they’ve been professional for only eight months compared to England who went pro in January 2019.
New Zealand were in absolute turmoil, had a change of coaches so close from the World Cup but since then they’ve got new attacking and defensive philosophies, they’ve filled out stadiums week after week and the viewing figures to watch their delayed quarter final on free to air TV beat the All Blacks v Japan game figures.
Half the battle is getting to the final, however, knowing how competitive they all are, they won’t want to lose to England on their own home turf. No chance!
Some will argue that England deserve to win this World Cup after all the funding and support put into the Red Roses and for the RFU leading the way and driving the professionalism of the game.
England have set the standard and challenged the world to raise the level of investment that goes into the women’s game. If they reflect back and don’t win this World Cup, but in turn it accelerated countries like Wales and Scotland going professional, then that in a sense is a win.
However, that’s obviously not their first goal, that’s to get a winners medal and to come home with the cup but what they’ve done in the UK with record crowds being set at Six Nations matches, you could argue that for helping grow the game, England are the winners.
If you think of it from a Black Ferns’ perspective, it’s not the players fault that New Zealand Rugby have quite often been off the mark and have taken a while to clock on and invest in their 15s programme.
The Black Ferns players have had to make just as many sacrifices as the Red Roses, they were completely embarrassed in England and France last Autumn and a key player had to speak out about the culture inside the camp for change to arrive. If you think of all the turmoil that they’ve had to go through, in their minds, they deserve to win it.
However, as we know, sport is about what happens on the day and who turns up and gives the best 80 minute performance.
People have asked me what difference the crowd will make on Saturday evening, and whether there is actually more pressure on New Zealand to deliver a performance and a win in front of the fans in the stadium. For me personally, I don’t think I’ve ever played in front of a home crowd and it felt like more pressure.
All it does is lift you, like when there’s a big line break or a big tackle, that energy just inspires you and you can feel it radiate from your teammates. You can barely hear each other and you feel really intense. The Black Ferns will relish being in front of their home fans and family. They don’t get these opportunities to play many tests at home so they will absolutely love it and draw upon it.
England have only ever faced a hostile crowd in France. And if you reflect on those results, there’ve been really tight games. Plus, if you think of Fiji versus England in their World Cup opener, the whole crowd was for Fiji and England really struggled in that first half. I would say, on that front, it’s advantage Black Ferns.
For England, I think the outside channels are quite vulnerable. I think they get really narrow and a lot of teams who have managed to stretch them or score against them, it’s been down their outside channels. I’d also say the kicking game is a big strength of theirs, but it depends who you’re kicking to. If you give too much loose ball to the Black Fern back three and give them a run up, England will be in trouble.
Goal kicking will also come into play. If it wasn’t for the boot of Emily Scarratt, England might not have beaten Canada.
I think by Emily’s standards she’s probably not played to the ability that we all know she’s capable of this tournament. She’s been rusty off the tee and there’s been a number of errors that you’d probably expect to see her make across an entire tournament that she’s made in one game.
I wonder if there’s been discussions in the team that if Emily misses her second kick, Zoe Harrison will step in.
The Black Ferns will be concerned about becoming isolated in the carry as England have the ability to affect turnovers with the likes of Zoe Aldrcroft, Marlie Parker and Amy Cokayne. I don’t think the work rate of New Zealand’s pack is at the level of England’s.
In my opinion, England need to move the ball around against them and stress them. If they try and just take them on upfront, I don’t think they’ll be successful. They’re going to have to move the ball to the outside channels. I just don’t think you can beat New Zealand by trying to go through them, you’ve got to stretch them and use imaginative stuff like cross-field kick passes.
It’s just a question of whether England are brave enough to play like that or not? If they don’t try and play with a bit more flair, they will struggle. Just look at Helena Rowland and how she opened Canada up last week by going on winding runs to the outside- in one of those scenarios she set up Abby Dow’s first try.
I think you’ll see England use their set piece to get in the right positions on the field. They really back their line out and driving maul so they don’t mind kicking it off as well.
We’ve seen the Black Ferns doing a lot of kicking this week at training and so you wonder if they will try lots of attacking kicks to get the ball in behind. Ruahei Demant has had an exceptional tournament. She plays really flat. But she’s got pace and great acceleration and that’s what often gets her through the gap. Plus, her offloading skills have really been top class.
I think New Zealand are underdogs, but only slightly. You can’t play 30 unbeaten tests and not be the favourites. Despite injuries, the depth of England’s squad is scary. The bench players could all start and they’d still have a winning team.
This final is not a foregone conclusion. World Cups are a very different beast and I think people underestimate that. Anything can happen.
My heart is with England and I think they will edge it. But my head is still on the fence. If you pushed me for a score prediction, I’d say 25-20 to England.
Comments on RugbyPass
Super rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
7 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
7 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
14 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
14 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
7 Go to comments