Conservative England vs exciting New Zealand? Or unbeatable England vs naive New Zealand?
Conservative England versus exciting New Zealand? Or unbeatable England versus naïve New Zealand?
Whatever your take on these two teams, talk to anyone who’s watched them perform over the last six weeks and you’ll immediately grasp the deep fascination about how two sides with such contrasting styles will approach this weekend’s World Cup final.
England have honed their machine-like consistency over a remarkable run of 30 games, while arguably New Zealand are still finding themselves, with a new coach on board for just over six months – albeit the master Wayne Smith – and a game-plan which has been transformed from their turgid performances in Europe just a year ago.
Remember, these two sides have contested four World Cup finals – and New Zealand have won all of them. Yet never before though have the differences between the teams been so marked.
Fascinating selection in the centre with Holly Aitchison starting. Hints at a diff sort of style. 6-2 split on the bench. MacDonald would be right to be disappointed but understandable with Packer out. Botterman injured – her and Rowland are big losses! https://t.co/fZ19wPX4YH
— Scrumqueens – Women’s Rugby (@ScrumQueens) November 9, 2022
It’s not quite as simple to say that where England are strong, New Zealand are weak and vice versa, but there can hardly be two sides with such contrasting philosophies on how to play the game.
It’s obvious to anyone with working eyesight that England’s reliance on their forward play is enormous and that their driving lineout is their biggest asset. And the facts from Opta bear it out.
England’s ten tries, via their fearsome rolling maul at this World Cup is twice as many as any other side, and their 100% maul success rate means simply that once they get this rumbling along, they’re almost impossible to stop.
By contrast, for the Black Ferns, mauling is just not a consideration. In fact, they barely even bother.
Over the course of the entire World Cup New Zealand have formed just eight mauls (England have formed 42) – and they turned the ball over on two of those occasions.
It’s obvious too that even when they go off the top, England’s lineout remains a real point of difference. Indeed, that they statistically have the best lineout at the World Cup is unsurprising.
Speaking to BBC last week, lock Abbie Ward likened it to a menu with a deep variety of options. She wasn’t lying because when you analyse where Amy Cokayne puts the ball in, you realise pretty quickly how hard it is to defend. England can win the ball anywhere in the air with Cokayne’s efforts split almost evenly between front, middle, back throws.
Ward though, is the main target, taking twice as many as Zoe Aldcroft. If New Zealand can track her movement, then maybe they have a chance of competing there – with Maiakawanakaulani Roos their best option to pinch the ball.
What are New Zealand’s key strengths then? Their own set-piece has rapidly improved and even if they cannot compete with England’s line-out, the fact that they didn’t lose a single scrum last weekend against a tough France pack will give them huge confidence.
But largely it is surely their willingness to give it a lash and their commitment to unstructured running rugby that is their biggest asset.
No team has attempted to offload the ball more than New Zealand at this World Cup with 108 offloads over five games so far.
England on the other hand have offloaded just 39 times. England’s completion rate is better but that’s perhaps simply an indication that they play it safe – only when it’s on do they go for it, the Black Ferns by contrast will take a chance.
There are a raft of other stats too which point to the contrast in styles – for example England do what you expect when they are trying to get out of their 22 and kick it most of the time, whereas New Zealand strongly favour carrying it out – doing so 85% of the time rather than putting boot to ball.
But stats apart, perhaps what will decide this World Cup is who thrives on the pressure better, for there is no escaping the fact that there is enormous pressure on both sides, despite what the Black Ferns will tell you about their underdog status.
There are 40,000 fans at Eden Park on Saturday night, heavily and vocally favouring the Black Ferns.
In a country in which rugby is a staple diet, no matter the reality of the journey they’ve been on, there is expectation on them to win at home.
England on the other hand have years of winning under their belts, years of investment into their programme and an expectation that they can make that count.
"It's a massive part of the game that we need to put a huge emphasis on."
The #RedRoses leave no stone unturned when it comes to their preparations ?#TeamDream | #RedRoses
— England Rugby (@EnglandRugby) November 9, 2022
They’re used to hostile crowds in the south of France, but none quite this big, and none quite on a stage like this.
If, like me, you’re a neutral this weekend, who you want to win might come down to this – how do you like your rugby?
Me – I like it all. I love England’s unashamed effort to play so determinately to their strengths, as much as I love New Zealand’s unstructured approach to the game.
World Cup Finals involving these two teams do not tend to be banal affairs – the last final in 2017, was until last weekend, one of the best women’s test matches ever.
Despite the inevitable tired limbs and exhausted minds this weekend, here’s hoping for another incredible morning of rugby.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
81 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
3 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
3 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
3 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to comments