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Five talking points as Scotland prepare to tackle ‘dangerous’ Wales
By Bryn Palmer
Despite back-to-back defeats by Ireland and England consigning Scotland to another campaign of what might-have-been, head coach Gregor Townsend has largely backed those who came within a Finn Russell conversion of a third straight win at Twickenham.
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The return of fit-again wing Darcy Graham, with the unfortunate Kyle Rowe dropping to the bench, is the only change to the starting XV for the visit of Wales, with scrum-half George Horne and prop Rory Sutherland returning among the replacements.
But there was still plenty to discuss when Townsend sat down with the media on Thursday ahead of Scotland’s final home game of the Six Nations.
Scotland ’don’t lack a killer instinct’ – just accuracy
The stats painted a stark picture of Scotland’s inability to put England away when they had them on the ropes at Twickenham. The visitors enjoyed 58 per cent possession, 59 per cent territory, had twice as many carries, made nearly twice as many metres, 35 tackle breaks to 10, nine line-breaks to two…so it goes on.
Is there a worse feeling than having played all the rugby, been demonstrably the better team and out-scored the opposition three tries to one, yet lost the game? Apparently so.
“I think the worst feeling in the world is if you come off having lost by 50 points and played really poorly,” Townsend said. That’s not generally something Scotland do these days, but they do have a maddening ability to let games slip they should be winning.
Do they lack a ‘killer instinct’ perhaps? After all, they got into the English 22 on 13 occasions and surrendered possession 10 times, when they weren’t scoring tries.
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“No, it’s not that,” Townsend insisted. “We know if we’d scored two or three more points we would have been sitting in the changing room feeling totally different, but that’s the reality of sport. In terms of being more clinical, yes, we know how important that is, but it’s something we’ve done very well over the last year or two.
“I think last year we had the best conversion rate of any team in the Six Nations. We looked at every opportunity we had against England. Some of it was definitely down to us and how we could have been a bit more accurate with our decisions or in contact.
“On other occasions we felt the pressure we had should have got us penalties. And England defended really well. We’ve come up against a lot of teams that you find easier ways to score tries against when you get in that area, but credit goes to England – on two or three occasions they defended very well.”
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The return of Darcy Graham, who scored three tries in four Six Nations starts against Wales from 2019 to 2022 before missing the last two campaigns, should help in ensuring more of the chances Scotland create are finished off.
“We’re blessed with the players we have in those positions and Darcy has been one of our best over the last few years,” Townsend noted. “His work off the ball is outstanding. He gets himself into positions to carry, his contact work is excellent and his ability to beat players is up there with the best in the world.”
Ritchie ‘back to his best’ after difficult year
After a rollercoaster 2024 in which he lost the captaincy and was in and out of the team, flanker Jamie Ritchie ended the autumn Tests with a barnstorming display in an excellent win over Australia.
His reward was a start in Scotland’s Six Nations opener against Italy, only to find himself back on the bench against Ireland when Matt Fagerson was switched to blindside to accommodate the return of Jack Dempsey at No.8.
But with the breakdown issues Scotland suffered against the Irish, Ritchie was back in favour against England, where his jackalling prowess and ability to snaffle vital turnovers was much in evidence again.
“Jamie’s been going very well, probably the best he’s played for Scotland over a period there – maybe when he first came through it was at that level,” Townsend said.
“I think he’s got that really good balance now of knowing which rucks to target and which ones to leave. He connects really well with referees on that side and he’s also been very good in the air – someone that can win us ball back at kick-offs or any contestable kicks.”
Townsend also cited Ritchie’s slick hands in helping set up Huw Jones’ opening try against Italy, and another pass to put Russell through a gap against England, as evidence of a greater “all-round skill-set”. “We use him in certain plays as well because he’s a skilful player, so you’ll see him popping up,” he added.
With Fagerson forced to settle for bench duty on Saturday, fit-again Ben Muncaster pressing hard and Andy Christie, Josh Bayliss, Luke Crosbie and Jack Mann all to return, Scotland’s back-row resources, at least, are reassuringly well stocked.
Scotland’s pack ‘doesn’t lack power or punch’
Whether that depth of quality extends to the front five is open to question, at least in terms of the size and power Scotland can summon compared to the likes of France, England and Ireland.
After disparaging media comments about Scotland’s “weedy forwards” followed the defeat by Ireland, the greater punch England brought to their defence was a significant factor in stemming the Scots’ attacking flow that had earlier wreaked such havoc.
But when it was put to Townsend that Scotland lack the raw power to take a more direct route when required, or the weapons to counter it when other teams apply physical pressure, the head coach took umbrage at the suggestion.
“I disagree with that,” he said. “When we go down to Twickenham and outscore England three tries to one, the pack’s got a big part to play in that. The first try, there were strong carries by the forwards that opened up space for the backs. The pack will provide that quick ball – they’re working contact and our line-out produced two tries.
“Ireland played well against us, but that’s one game obviously. I look at Australia, I look at how the pack fronted up against South Africa, I look at Italy and England. Ireland played well, there’s no question that they were the better team that day.
“But our pack has gone really well against other teams and this is another opportunity to show how good they are this weekend.”
That includes at the scrum. The Scots’ set-piece creaked at times against Ireland and England, but Townsend believes it can be a weapon if they get the referee onside from the outset, as Wales did in winning four successive scrum penalties against Ireland.
“We have to influence the referee as much as possible to make sure that the penalties we feel we should be winning are given because of how we start our scrum,” he said.
“I think we’ve taken two or three scrums to really get into it and show who we are. There weren’t many scrums against England – I think the last one was in the 50th minute – but we were starting to get the upper hand. The same happened against Italy and Ireland.
“We know it’s an area where we can exert more pressure on the opposition if it’s a game that has a lot of scrums.”
Finn Russell will remain the frontline goalkicker and ‘get his rewards’
Scotland’s fly-half landed 22 of his 23 kicks at goal during last year’s Six Nations, a 96 per cent success rate. If his current 38 per cent rate looks like a considerable drop-off, Russell has only actually taken eight kicks in this campaign.
He started with three out of five against Italy, didn’t take any against Ireland after being forced off with a head knock barely 20 minutes in, while his three missed conversions at Twickenham were all from wide positions.
Townsend said no thought had been given to relieving his playmaker of goalkicking duties and that he is “very happy” to have Russell continue taking shots at goal.
“I think they were tough conversions,” he said of the Twickenham misses, including the crucial last kick of the game when referee Pierre Brousset controversially ordered Russell to take it from wider out than where Duhan van der Merwe had touched down.
“One of them he would have thought wasn’t as tough, but his last one was very tough. He got asked to move it, when he had about 20 seconds to go, further to the touchline.
“Finn is an excellent kicker. Last year he was the best kicker in the Championship and I’m sure by the end of the Six Nations his stats will be back up there with what he normally produces and has delivered for Scotland over a number of years.
“I know he’s working hard. Yesterday he was last off the training field, probably about half an hour after the session had finished, working with (Scotland’s record points-scorer) Chris Paterson. He’s putting the work in and that will get its rewards.”
Wales a ‘really dangerous’ opponent despite run of 15 defeats
Wales’ last visit to Murrayfield two years ago resulted in their record margin of defeat in the fixture as Scotland racked up five tries-to-one in a thumping 35-7 victory, the first time a Warren Gatland-coached Welsh side had lost to the Scots.
But it was very much against the trend of the majority of their Six Nations meetings, Wales winning 13 of the first 16 and 17 out of 24 overall.
Even the manner of Scotland’s first win in Cardiff for 22 years last season, when they led 27-0 at half-time before almost succumbing to a storming second-half Welsh comeback that came up a point short, felt like a re-opening of old scars.
Scotland are chasing a third straight win against Wales for the first time in the Six Nations era, but Townsend is understandably wary of a team that looked utterly transformed in just a week under interim coach Matt Sherratt against Ireland after the dog days of Gatland’s second spell in charge.
“We know what a strong team they are when they can get the ball and play at pace,” Townsend noted. “I hope it’s not a similar game to last year, because it became a game of two halves. If we can start like we did last year, we want to continue that for longer.
“They’re going to ask different questions from us in attack. Defensively, I think Wales are a strong defensive team, but we were very accurate in that first 30-40 minutes (last year) and maybe caught Wales cold. After that, our discipline, or certainly being down a man for 20 minutes, made it tough for us.”
Wales may have racked up a 15th successive defeat in what was effectively a ‘free hit’ against Ireland, but Townsend believes this Welsh side has effectively been given a clean slate by Sherratt’s interim appointment.
“It’s almost like the start of this Welsh team, since two weeks ago,” he added. “Part of that is the rugby they’re playing, but also their mindset.
“Different players are playing this game to the ones who played their first two games of the Six Nations, and they’re playing with freedom. They’ve got nothing to lose, and that’s a really dangerous opponent.
“We didn’t have that much defending to do in our last game at Twickenham. England kicked the ball a lot, so I’m sure there’ll be more defending to do on Saturday.”
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