Déjà vu in Dublin: These Wallabies have run Ireland close before

The Wallabies are in Dublin to play their final Test of 2024, there is an air of déjà vu about this trip to the emerald isles, and it bodes well for the men in gold.

Two years ago, another Kiwi, Dave Rennie, was the man at the Wallabies’ helm. He was charged with bringing big success on the end-of-year tour, after what was then considered an unsuccessful Rugby Championship and winter series.

In 2022, Rennie delivered a 2-1 series loss to England, and a 2-4 win/loss ratio in the Rugby Championship, where his side beat Argentina and South Africa.

That was the year when French referee Mathieu Raynal said the two words any Australian shudders when they hear; “we play”, a pair of words that destroyed the hopes of beating the All Blacks in Melbourne and keeping the Bledisloe alive.

On the Spring Tour, Rennie and his men ran France close with a 30-29-point defeat in Paris, beat Scotland 16-15, but lost to Italy by the same one-point margin 28-27.

It was the Italy defeat which many say was the end of Rennie but in the following two weeks, the Wallabies managed to regather their form.

They ran Ireland close, in the end losing 13-10, and making an amazing fight-from-behind victory to beat Wales 39-34 in their final game, a result which ended coach Wayne Pivac’s career at Cymru.

That was the last Australians saw of Rennie in the top job, Eddie Jones was parachuted in, as the chairman at the time Hamish McLennan and other board members felt Rennie’s results were unacceptable.

How wrong they were, Jones’ tenure was an unmitigated disaster, ending Test careers of Australian greats and plunging Australian rugby into what most called rock bottom or the darkest moment in Wallabies history by many.

However, a year on from Jones and two laps around the sun on from the Rennie era, and the Wallabies can only hope to be back where they were under Rennie in 2022.

If you asked Wallabies supporters if they would take a three-point margin against Ireland in Dublin, a one-point margin against France in Paris, and a win against South Africa, there’s no doubt they would take it.

But, and there is a big but which should give Wallaby fans hope that Schmidt and his Wallabies are well placed to surpass the ceiling many placed on Rennie.

Schmidt is in his first year as coach, Rennie was in his third, this comparison alone gives a good indicator of how the Wallabies are tracking.

And this is where the déjà vu really begins to hit home.

On the left, we have the team that ran Ireland within three points in 2022, and on the right, we have the side that will take the field against Ireland at the Aviva on Sunday morning Aussie time.

The similarities between the two matchday squads make two things obvious.

First, Jones’ decision to omit players like Wright, Ikitau, Lolesio, Paisami, and Wilson, was folly.

Second, had Rennie been allowed to continue most of these players would likely have seven or more Test-caps to their names and be vastly more experienced.

The past is the past, and it cannot be changed but it is interesting how similar the squads of Rennie and Schmidt are, and which players they are choosing to lean on.

Lord Laurie Fisher has also managed to reappear two years later in the same position of defence coach.

What is more, had injury not struck Paisami, Porecki, Lonergan, and the likes of Petaia and Nawaqanitawase been retained, the squads would almost be identical.

Fixture

Internationals

Ireland

22 - 19

Full-time

Australia

All Stats and Data

The point of all this reminiscing is to say; the core group of players which have been carried over from the Rennie era and survived the Jones’ combustion, are better players now than they have ever been.

On two occasions last week Schmidt called Scotland a side with the bulk of its players in the “sweet spot”, he did so once before the game and once after the defeat.

It’s a zone he quantifies as players with “30-60 caps, between the age of 25-30,” it’s a zone that describes where almost his whole current Wallabies squad will be in two years’ time.

Bell, Kailea, Faeesler, Pollard, Frost, Williams, L Wright, Tizzano, Gleeson, Wilson Lolesio, Donaldson, Dylan Pietsch, BPA; if they stay on track, they’ll all be in or just shy of this ‘zone’ within two years, a year ahead of the home world cup.

AAA, Tupou, Roberston, Skelton, LSL, McReight, Gordon, Paisami, Ikitau, Kerevi, Kellaway, T Wright are all already in this zone and are a great nucleus to have whilst bringing the burgeoning batch through.

Apart from poor coaching in 2023, the biggest inhibiter on the growth of the Wallabies in the past two years has been change of coaching, which brings with it a shift in selection policy and a break in cohesion and continuity.

Rugby Australia must work to keep this side together because contract negotiations for many of these players are not yet finalised.

The governing body must also do all they can to keep Schmidt, it’s already clear he’s not just a good-willed caretaker, he is the real deal and has proved it repeatedly in 2024.

They must retain Schmidt for his pragmatic style and attention to detail which has so been lacking in Australian rugby, but perhaps more than anything, they must retain him to avoid another change.

Change could undo all his and the Wallabies’ great work this year. But more on the future after this final clash of the Spring Tour/Autumn Nations series, the team lists above prove there is enough cohesion and continuity amongst this squad to give Ireland the same fight they gave them in 2022.

If Schmidt picks a cohesive team with good continuity, the Wallabies can put a show.