All Blacks unlikely to experiment due to forced changes

With at least one major change already required to the All Blacks‘ match-day squad for their second test with Ireland on Saturday, head coach Ian Foster must now weight up the merits of any further rotation.

Delayed concussion symptoms mean the most experienced player in the country, second-rower Sam Whitelock, won’t feature at Forsyth Barr Stadium this weekend. With Whitelock unavailable, the next most senior lock in the squad, Brodie Retallick, is expected to take on lineout duties.

That means the big question for Foster is whether to shift Scott Barrett from blindside flanker into the second row.

Ardie Savea and the All Blacks react to the first test against Ireland.

Ardie Savea and the All Blacks react to the first test against Ireland.

Barrett’s selection in the No 6 jersey for the opening test of the series raised a few eyebrows, especially when Foster made no suggestion that it was a decision forced by injury. The All Blacks did confirm last week that Akira Ioane wasn’t 100 per cent fit but naming Barrett on the flank was ostensibly a tactical decision.

Barrett had a solid game in the unfamiliar role, throwing his body about with abandon and topping the tackle charts. There was enough to suggest that the 28-year-old deserves another shot in the position – but Whitelock’s unavailability could curtail any chance of that happening.

Having already lost Josh Lord to a season-ending injury, and with fellow youngster Tupou Vaa’i sidelined due to Covid, Barrett and Retallick are now the only two locks from the original squad who are fit and ready for selection. Patrick Tuipulotu has also joined the team as cover but it’s unlikely he would be rushed straight back into the starting side – which means Barrett’s experiment at No 6 might be over for the rest of the series, especially if Ioane is ready for action.

Even without Ioane on deck, however, Dalton Papalli or Pita Gus Sowakula could be called upon to start on the blindside. The latter would certainly be a more like-for-like replacement for Barrett but only made his test debut last week and has just a handful of matches on the side of the scrum, whereas the inclusion of Papalii would effectively see the All Blacks running with three openside flankers in tandem and might not bring the best balance to the game. The left-field solution could see Ardie Savea move from the back of the scrum to the side, into the role he filled throughout much of 2019, allowing Sowakula or Hoskins Sotutu to take over at number 8.

Elsewhere in the side, it’s the possible availability of Will Jordan, Jack Goodhue and David Havili – all following Covid – that could prompt the only other changes to the run-on team.

“There’s absolutely no pressure from the players, management, coaches, anyone for them to rush back in,” said captain Sam Cane of the returning trio. “They were on a bike yesterday with some sort of heart-rate monitor on measuring how they were responding to exercise so all the precautions are being taken there. The last thing anyone would want is to risk them getting long Covid so there’s no pressure and they’ll have a few boxes to tick during the week to be available.

Assuming their availability, Jordan was the first-choice No 14 last year and is now going head-to-head with Leicester Fainga’anuku and Sevu Reece for a spot on the wing. The former only made his debut against Ireland but didn’t look out of place at all, while Reece was one of the best players on the back for the All Blacks. With plenty more games to play this year, it could be that the All Blacks opt to ease Jordan back into action via the bench or give him another week off following his bout with Covid – which would also reward Fainga’anuku and Reece for their displays in the first test.

Similary, young midfield back Quinn Tupaea had the most composed showing of his short international career to date over the weekend and it would be a shame to replace him with either Goodhue or Havili in the No 12 jersey when things are starting to come right for the 23-year-old.

It could be that with both Beauden and Jordie Barrett likely for the run-on team, Foster opts to run without specialist flyhalf cover for the coming match, giving Jordan and one of the fit-again midfielders spots on the bench. Undoubtedly, Foster and his fellow selectors have gone into the three-match series with at least a loose plan of how to utilise all the troops and that would likely involve Richie Mo’unga getting a start in the third test, which means they can afford to flog Beauden Barrett for another 80 minutes before giving him a break in the final match of the series.

Without Sam Whitelock on deck, the second test will be expected to be a closer affair – and that means the All Blacks won’t want to make wholesalechanges to their team. With everyone in last week’s squad performing well, from No 1 through to No 23, it’s unlikely there will be many further changes to the lineup beyond Whitelock’s enforced absence and a shake-up in the loose forwards.