Predicting Wales' potential 31-man RWC squad
Warren Gatland is currently enjoying his final festive season as Wales head coach with his team on the longest unbeaten run of his reign.
Whatever happens between now and the end of the 2019 Rugby World Cup, he will lead Wales into a maximum of just 16 more Tests.
The end of a supremely successful era is in sight but before he can step aside for Wayne Pivac, there is plenty of work to be done.
So, as the sun sets on 2018 it is only natural that thoughts drift towards Japan.
A number of players rose to Gatland’s challenge in November and stuck their hand up for World Cup selection. These are the players who we think are sure of their place on the plane.
Certainties
Forwards (10): Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Elliot Dee, Tomas Francis, Samson Lee, Alun Wyn Jones, Cory Hill, Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty, Taulupe Faletau.
Backs (11): Gareth Davies, Tomos Williams, Gareth Anscombe, Dan Biggar, Rhys Patchell, Hadleigh Parkes, Jonathan Davies, George North, Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, Josh Adams.
Competition for the 10 remaining places is intense. Below we round up the big questions facing Gatland nine months from naming his third and final Wales World Cup squad.
Back row – Will Ellis Jenkins be fit?
Cardiff Blues captain Jenkins endured the worst possible luck in November when he suffered a serious knee injury seconds after being announced as man of the match in Wales’ defeat of South Africa at the Principality Stadium.
He went under the knife at the beginning of December to address damage to his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), medial collateral ligament (MCL) and tendon, and faces a race to be fit in time for the World Cup.
For an idea of the battle that lies ahead, Jenkins need only look at international colleague Aaron Shingler who damaged his ACL in last season’s PRO14 final.
It had been hoped that Shingler would return in December, but it now seems unlikely that he will play any rugby until after the Six Nations.
Both Jenkins and Shingler would have harboured real hopes of playing in Japan at the time of their injuries and can expect to be afforded the opportunity to prove their fitness before Gatland trims his squad to 31.
The Kiwi coach has proved loyal in the past, including Bradley Davies in his 2015 World Cup party at the end of a five-and-a-half month lay-off for the lock.
However, Wales’ current riches in the back-row mean that neither would be guaranteed a place on the plane regardless of fitness.
Taulupe Faletau, Ross Moriarty and Justin Tipuric are certainties in Gatland’s squad, health permitting, meaning Jenkins and Shingler face competition from James Davies, Ollie Griffiths, Dan Lydiate, Josh Navidi, Aaron Wainwright and Thomas Young.
Lydiate’s November renaissance appears to put him in the driving seat, while Griffiths and Young have slipped off the Wales radar somewhat.
Wainwright’s form over the autumn puts him ahead of Davies and Navidi, and into direct competition with Jenkins and Shingler for the fifth back-row spot.
Wales’ squad is currently jam-packed with options at six – Cory Hill would come into that mix as well – but Jenkins’ ability to cover all positions at the base of the scrum, especially openside and number eight, means he is likely to get the nod if fit.
If he loses that battle, though, do not be surprised to see Wainwright become Gatland’s back-row bolter.
Third hooker or fifth lock?
Gatland took five second-rows and just two hookers to the 2015 World Cup, but that was very much a decision taken due to circumstance.
Wales had fitness concerns over Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris and Bradley Davies heading into that tournament and felt emboldened to strengthen that area at the expense of a hooker as reinforcements would be close at hand.
“It was always our intention to take three [hookers], but it makes it a little bit easier being at home and having access to a hooker to potentially come in,” Gatland said at the time.
Wales cannot fall back on “home” comforts this time around, and with the World Cup taking place 6,000 miles away in Japan, Gatland will almost certainly select a third hooker.
Ken Owens and Elliot Dee are currently the recognised one and two in that position.
Neither Kristian Dacey nor Scott Baldwin, who starred at the 2015 tournament, have played for their country in 2018 meaning Scarlets back-up Ryan Elias will likely make the trip east.
Elias started Wales’ second Test against Argentina in June and came off the bench to win his sixth cap against Tonga in November.
Jake Ball vs. Adam Beard vs. Seb Davies?
Should Gatland opt for a third hooker, and as outlined above it is likely that he will, that would mean a lock would have to be sacrificed.
Alun Wyn Jones is sure of a place on the plane, while the leadership roles taken on by Cory Hill over the past 18 months mean that he is a certainty, even if he is not a guaranteed starter.
Ball had been Gatland’s preferred second-row partner for Jones before he dislocated his shoulder against the All Blacks in the 2017 autumn internationals.
He returned to start against Tonga last month, but by then Beard was playing too well to be displaced from the side that went on to beat the Springboks.
Gatland is a fan of the height and physicality that Beard offers, and his performance against the Wallabies in November was particularly timely given Wales will face them again in Japan.
At 6’8” Beard gave Wales parity against the giant Australian second-rows, and he is unlikely to travel to Japan without that option up his sleeve.
Of the seven caps won by Davies to date, meanwhile, only three have come in his favoured position of lock – the other four have come in the back-row.
In a straight shoot-out with Ball and Beard for a place in the final 31-man squad as a specialist lock he would be the odd one out. However, his hopes may hinge on the fitness of Ellis Jenkins.
Were Jenkins to be ruled out of contention it would leave Gatland with only Taulupe Faletau and Ross Moriarty as options at number eight. If that scenario plays out then he may well look to bolster his back-row beef with Davies, meaning Ball would likely be the, very unlucky, man to miss out.
Hallam Amos vs. Steff Evans
Wales are likely to head east with five specialist back-three players. Fitness permitting, Leigh Halfpenny, George North and Liam Williams will fill three of those spots.
A fourth looks increasingly likely to be taken by Josh Adams, whose rising stock in the Welsh set-up was highlighted by his use against Australia and South Africa in the autumn.
Adams has scored only one try in six Tests for his country but his work-rate, composure and defensive acumen were pivotal in the November victories over the Wallabies and Springboks.
The Worcester wing’s school friend, Steff Evans, had been in possession of the number 11 shirt heading into 2018 but now seems locked in a battle with Hallam Amos for a place on the flight to Japan.
Amos is a Gatland favourite, offers cover at full-back as well as on both wings and would have earned far more than the 18 caps he has done were it not for injury.
The potential presence of Adams, Gareth Anscombe, Halfpenny, Rhys Patchell and Liam Williams in the squad for Japan – all comfortable in the 15 jersey – means Wales could be bold and opt for an out-and-out flyer such as Evans.
Evans has six tries in 12 Test appearances, but from Gatland’s perspective it would make sense to select a player, Amos, who has World Cup experience. Harsh as it would be on the Scarlets wing.
Owen Watkin vs. Scott Williams
Centre is one position where little debate surrounds the identity of the first-choice pair. Despite the Scarlets’ struggles this season, you can expect Wales to line up for their most important games in Japan with Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies at 12 and 13.
Received wisdom would suggest that Gatland will take three centres to the World Cup – as he did in 2011 and 2015 – pitching Ospreys team-mates Owen Watkin and Scott Williams into a battle for the remaining spot.
Tyler Morgan is another option – and one with experience of a World Cup quarter-final – but he has won only two caps since the tournament in England and would need a barnstorming 2019 to force his way into the squad.
Williams would arguably be the safe option. He is a 57-cap veteran of the international game who has never let his country down and has scored some important tries.
But Watkin is the future, has impressed as part of an Ospreys side that is pressing for a play-off place in Conference A of the PRO14 and took his chance for Wales in the autumn.
He also offers Gatland something different, a little subtlety, should the more direct Parkes-Davies partnership not reap instant rewards.
Considering all of the above we have picked the 31-man squad we think Gatland will select. The eagle-eyed will notice there are two forward selections. The first includes a fit Ellis Jenkins, the second is our stab at what Gatland will do if the Blues captain is ruled out.
Forwards* (17): Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Ken Owens, Rob Evans, Nicky Smith, Tomas Francis, Samson Lee, Dillon Lewis, Jake Ball, Adam Beard, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones, Taulupe Faletau, Ellis Jenkins, Dan Lydiate, Ross Moriarty, Justin Tipuric.
Forwards** (17): Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Ken Owens, Rob Evans, Nicky Smith, Tomas Francis, Samson Lee, Dillon Lewis, Adam Beard, Seb Davies, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones, Taulupe Faletau, Aaron Wainwright, Dan Lydiate, Ross Moriarty, Justin Tipuric.
Backs (14): Aled Davies, Gareth Davies, Tomos Williams, Gareth Anscombe, Dan Biggar, Rhys Patchell, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Owen Watkin, Josh Adams, Hallam Amos, Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Liam Williams.
*If Ellis Jenkins is fit
**If Ellis Jenkins is ruled out
Should Ellis Jenkins be ruled out of the World Cup then we believe Gatland would opt for the extra option at number eight, meaning Jake Ball misses out and Seb Davies comes in alongside Aaron Wainwright. Either way, the depth of options available to Wales at present is highlighted by those who would still miss out on a place in the back-row – Aaron Shingler, Josh Navidi, James Davies and Thomas Young chief among them.
Comments on RugbyPass
The World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
1 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
1 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
19 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments