When Ireland get smacked in the mouth by this new All Blacks team, how will they react?
The only constant is change. In the realm of sport, where careers last one-tenth of a lifetime, one year can be like a decade. To stay at the top, you have to keep evolving, and this is one thing that the All Blacks have excelled at.
If Ireland believes this is the same All Blacks team they beat nearly a year ago, they will lose in no uncertain terms.
To understand the mindset of what this team is about, read this quote from All Blacks’ centre Conrad Smith from the Weight of the Nation documentary after the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
Continue reading below…
“We had changed a few things, prior to the World Cup. We wanted to be a team that kept evolving our game. These other teams are going to start playing better and they’ll catch us if we sit still and use the same tactics.”
Stand still and be caught or evolve and push forward. It’s a brave thing to do, abandon what is working before its expiry date in search of something that might not. But this is what the All Blacks have been doing even when the stakes are as high as a Rugby World Cup, as far back as nearly a decade as Smith’s admission tells us.
Just because it’s a World Cup year, doesn’t mean innovation stops.
What other team would drop one of the fastest, most powerful, edge-weapons in the world in Rieko Ioane at the ripe age of 22?
What other team would move the back-to-back World Player of the Year into a new position at the 11th hour?
What other team would send an all-time great to the bench in Ben Smith, right on the cusp on the World Cup?
The answer is one. No top team has made more change in 2019 than New Zealand, with England perhaps a close second.
The ruthless search for success has no time for sentiment, ego, or favouritism. Sub-standard performance has consequences which can be cruel at times, but it brings forth new opportunity.
George Bridge and Sevu Reece weren’t in the picture when the All Blacks lost to Ireland, but their form for the Crusaders couldn’t be ignored any longer. Ardie Savea could not get a look-in past Sam Cane, but is now starting alongside him. Talk of Richie Mo’unga starting for the All Blacks was watered down by Hansen himself last year before he thought ‘maybe I’ll just start both’.
With just a truncated Rugby Championship left before the Rugby World Cup, the All Blacks threw out the old and in with the new, debuting new patterns in Buenos Aires against Argentina to start the tournament.
A week later Beauden Barrett was shifted to fullback to accommodate Mo’unga as they doubled down on evolving with this new style of expansive fast-width play.
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The stunning loss in Perth saw the pair of Ioane and Smith moved aside for Bridge and Reece so normal practice could resume at Eden Park in the return clash.
Since that historic night in Dublin, Ireland have gone the other way. The Six Nations campaign was rocked when England came in and punched the side in the mouth in the opening weekend.
From there, the side stuttered through and frustration became visible as basic execution let the side down. Without being on the inside no one knows the full story but from the exterior, it just didn’t seem right.
With Schmidt’s impending departure announced well in advance, the side has lost some of its mojo. Perhaps the fear factor of the man who demands perfection in the small details is gone when they know he won’t be there in a few months’ time. An over-reliance on set-piece plays can turn this side into zombies when they don’t work, especially without leaders like Sexton on the field.
There is still little to no emphasis on counter-attacking rugby, in contrast with Leinster who encourages it. It comprises of a third of the game, perhaps more, and stats will prove that nearly half of all tries come from these moments. Is it an under-utilised factor for Ireland? When Ireland’s carry-game is stuffed like it was against Japan and England, things seem to fall apart.
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Win or lose, after this World Cup, the first question asked should be, how much have Ireland evolved from 2018? Did they hold onto players a year too late? Have they explored every option to evolve their attack?
In the same way that Hansen has explored putting Barrett and Mo’unga on the field at the same time with a complete system change, Schmidt hasn’t gone that way with Carbery and Sexton. Carbery’s form at Munster piled pressure on Sexton and sparked a similar Barrett-Mo’unga debate among fans.
When the chance presented to use a secondary playmaker at fullback in-tandem with Sexton, Schmidt used midfielder Robbie Henshaw in a move that backfired against England’s kicking game in that Six Nations opener.
George Ford was a ‘starting’ casualty from England’s doomed 2018 Six Nations campaign, but Eddie Jones has brought back the Ford-Farrell axis for this World Cup and it has worked well. Things change, and if there were doubts over Carbery at fullback a few years ago, it might not be the case now.
There is no denying that Ireland found a recipe for success against the All Blacks over this World Cup cycle with two wins and one loss being the best record against them over that time. Having lost to them the last time they played, there will be no illusions over Ireland’s ability.
Over the last 12 months, there are noticeable differences in their approaches. The All Blacks are coming with a new team, with a new system, and it will be unrecognisable to the one that failed in Dublin. Are Ireland excited or daunted by that? And then when that unfamiliarity hits them in the face on the field, where will they go?
“I’d be surprised if they were scared of us but they definitely know that we can come and play and that we can beat them,” Irish winger Andrew Conway explained after their final pool match against Samoa.
That’s exactly why everything has changed to the way the All Blacks are playing in 2019.
Analysis: The All Blacks’ 11th hour innovation to kill off Northern Hemisphere line speed
Why it doesn’t really matter if Beauden Barrett wears the 10 or 15 jersey for the All Blacks
Rugby World Cup city guide to Oita:
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
13 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
13 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
13 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
12 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
13 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
13 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
13 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
13 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
45 Go to comments