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Where the Chiefs have the biggest edge over the Crusaders
Choosing a winner of the Super Rugby final is not a straightforward task. The Chiefs have set the benchmark in 2023 by defeating every team and scoring the most and conceding the least points in the round-robin.
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Perennial winners the Crusaders have scored ten more tries and their semi-final demolition of the Blues was a ruthless example of peaking at the right time.
While the Chiefs fought torridly to overcome stubborn Australian opponents in the quarters and semis, the Crusaders soared against the unpredictable Fijian Dura and embarrassed the Blues.
The build-up will be an overload of banal cliches about “X Factor,” “winning big moments,” “physicality” and “gain line.” Here is another cliche or truism. The team that finishes strongest will likely win the match.
Perhaps the biggest factor in the Chiefs success in 2023 has been the depth, balance, explosiveness, versatility, and clinical execution of their bench.
In the last quarter of games this season, the Chiefs have outscored opponents 151-71. They have only conceded 11 tries in 320 minutes in this period while holding five opponents scoreless in 16 games.
The Chiefs outscored the Reds 10-7 and the Brumbies 10-0 in the past fortnight to tip tense tussles in their favour. In their victories against the Crusaders, the Chiefs outscored the reigning champions 17-0 and 15-7 in the last 20 minutes.
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The Chiefs bench on Saturday was Tyrone Thompson, Ollie Norris, John Ryan, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Pita Gus Sowakula, Cortez Ratima, Josh Ioane, and Rameka Poihipi.
That’s three Maori All Blacks, two All Blacks, and an Irish international even before mentioning Ah Kuoi whose presence and hustle is most conspicuous, and youngster Ratima whose running game at halfback has been a revelation.
Thompson and Sowakula are all power and combined late to sink the Crusaders in Hamilton on April 29. Sowakula also scored the last try against the Reds on June 10. Ioane and Poihipi cover multiple positions in the backline with the bonus of Ioane’s goal-kicking.
Poihipi might not be a world-beater, but he is a model of consistency who rarely lets his side down. In 2021 he scored a late try against the Crusaders to win a game. The enigmatic Ioane can be dazzling at his best.
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The Crusaders haven’t finished games as strongly in 2023 as they have done in the past. While they have outscored opponents 142-104 in the last 20 minutes, they have only won the last quarter eight times outright in 16 games.
Their bench on Friday night was Brodie McAlister, Kershawl Sykes-Martin, Reuben O’Neill, Dominic Gardiner, Corey Kellow, Willi Heinz, Fergus Burke, and Chay Fihaki.
With the result settled by halftime ‘impact’ wasn’t essential but could this bench change a game like the Chiefs reserves can?
On his last legs, Heinz is the only internationally capped player. Sykes-Martin and O’Neill are ring-ins while Gardiner, Kellow, Burke, and Fihaki are youngsters yet to establish themselves fully at this level.
Prior to the semi the Crusaders had used 48 players with a dozen front-liners, including eight All Blacks, unavailable for selection for the Blues fixture. There is no doubt the bench would be different with a full squad.
Still, it would be naive to discount the Crusaders’ ability to storm home with a wet sail or at least grind out a victory. So often the Crusaders find an extra level against the odds.
Since 2018 the Crusaders have won a dozen finals matches and have not once been outscored in the last quarter.
Under Scott Robertson, the Crusaders have won 97 matches. On 70 occasions they have won the last 20 minutes outright and 14 times earned parity. Of the 17 matches the Crusaders have lost since 2017 they have been outscored in the last quarter 13 times.
Recent Crusaders history is littered with improbable comebacks. In 2017 Mitchell Hunt won games against the Reds and Highlanders with late heroics something he never looked like achieving in Dunedin. In 2018 the Crusaders beat the Waratahs from 0-29 down. In 2020 the Crusaders flipped a 17-point deficit against the Blues. David Havili kicked a drop goal in extra time to break Hurricanes hearts in 2021. This season the Crusaders were in a pickle against the Rebels in Melbourne but powered home with a 24-3 last quarter.
To beat the Crusaders, you must go the distance. The Chiefs are better equipped than any team to do that but historically the Crusaders are the greatest finishers.
Most Wins by New Zealand Teams Since 2017
Crusaders – 97
Hurricanes – 76
Chiefs – 70
Blues – 62
Highlanders – 48
Comments on RugbyPass
Can’t wait for the article that talks about misogyny in Ireland. Somehow.
11 Go to commentsI would like to see a rule change, when the attacking team is held up over the try line, by allowing the defensive team to restart a goal line drop out releases the pressure for the defensive team, but what if the attacking team had to restart a tap 5m out from the defensive team it gives the attacking team to apply more pressure, there are endless options for the attacking side and it will keep the fans in suspence.
2 Go to commentsLess modern South African males predictably triggered.
11 Go to commentsMy heart is with Quins, but the head is convinced Toulouse have too much. Ntamack is back, his timing and wisdom has been missed.
1 Go to commentsWow, what a starting line up for the Sharks) Tasty up front,kremer vs Tshituka or venter …fiery ,,Lavannini ,,will he knobble etzebeth? Biggest game for belleau?
1 Go to commentsIt was rubbish to watch, Blues weren’t even present. Did what they had to do, nothing more. Should be better next week against canes.
1 Go to commentsI’ve just noticed that this match has an all-French refereeing team. Surely a game like this ought to have a neutral ref? Although looking at the BBC preview of the Saints game, Raynal is also down as reffing that - so there may be some confusion about who is reffing what.
1 Go to commentsIf Havili can play anywhere in the back line, why not first 5. #10.
11 Go to commentsThe dressing room had already left for their summer break before they ran out in Dublin that year, and that’s on the coach. Franco Smith has undoubtedly made progress, particularly their maul, developing squad players and increasing squad depth. And against a very tight budget too. That said they were too lightweight last year and got found out against both Toulon and Munster in consecutive games. Better this season so far but they’ve developed something of a slow start habit occasionally, most notably losing at home to Northampton who played them at their own game. Play offs will ultimately show whether there has been tangible progress on last year, or not…!
2 Go to commentsAustralian Rugby has been a disaster, by not incorporating learning from previous successful campaigns. QLD Reds 2011 - Waratahs 2014. Players, coaches and administrators appoint there representatives for scheduled meetings, organisation’s agreement’s assessments and correspondence. This why a unified Rugby Union under one entity works. Every Rugby nation has taken that path. Was most difficult in the Northern hemisphere with over 100 years of club rugby before the game become professional. Took a lot of humility for those unions to eventually work together.
7 Go to commentsThough Wilson’s sacking was pretty brutal, it wasn’t just down to that Leinster game; Glasgow had a lot of 2nd half collapses that season, in the URC and Europe, and only just scraped into the playoffs. Franco Smith has definitely been an improvement, some players are delivering far more than they did under Wilson.
2 Go to commentsjesus - that front 5!
1 Go to commentsShould be an absolute cracker of a game! Will be great to see DuPont & Ntamack in tandem once again🔥
1 Go to commentsBest team ever…. To have played? These guys are still pressure chokers. Came nowhere when it counted. What a joke
81 Go to commentsMusk defends anonymous terrorism, fascism, threats against individuals and children etc etc But a Rugby club account….lock ‘em up!!!
1 Go to commentsActually the era defining moment came a few years earlier. February 2002 to be precise, when Michael D Higgins as finance minister at the time introduced his sports persons tax relief bill to the dial. As the politicians of the day stated “It seems to be another daft K Club frolic born in Kildare amongst the well-paid professional jockeys with whom the Minister plays golf” and that the scheme represented “a savage uncaring vision of Ireland and one that should be condemned”. The irfu and Leinster would be nowhere near the position they are in today without this key component of the finances.
5 Go to commentsIt is crystal clear that people who make such threats on line should be tried and imprisoned. Those with responsibility in social media companies who don’t facilitate this should be convicted. In real life, I have free speech to approach someone like Reinach and verbally threaten him. I am risking a conviction or a slap but I could do it. In the old days, If someone anonymously threatened someone by letter the police would ask and use evidence from the postal system. Unlike the Post, social media companies have complete instant and legal access to the content in social media. They make money from the data, billions. Yet, they turn a blind eye to terrorism, Nazi-ism and industrial levels of threats against individuals including their address and childrens schools being published online all from ananoymous accounts not real people. They claim free speech. Free speech for anonymous trolls/voilent thugs threatening people under false names? The fault is with the perps but also social media companies who think anonymous personas posting death threats constitutes free speech.
2 Go to commentsSo if this ain’t the best Irish team ever then who exactly is? I don’t remember any other Irish team being this good & winning a series in the Land of the Long White Cloud. Yes I may rip them often for 8 X QF RWC exits & twice not even making it to the QF, but they’re a damn good team who many think can only improve, including me!
81 Go to commentsNot a squeek out of Leinster for weeks about this match. So quiet. The first team have been quitely building for this encounter under Nienaber’s direction. All fresh, all highly motivated. They are expecting a season’s best performance from Northhampton. They will match that. They will be fresher and apparently they will have 80,000 out of the 83,000 shouting for them. I do expect Northhampton to turn up big time. Not to be missed. On a tangent it is evident how the loss of a few Premiership teams has in some respect helped other Premiership teams and England. More quality over less teams makes the teams better, which has a knock on effect on England. Not the only factor contributing to England’s rise but one of them.
5 Go to commentsOur very own monster teddy bear Ox😍💪
17 Go to comments