Tigers in trouble and look set to miss out on top four – Andy Goode
Leicester put a stop to their worst run of form since 1965 with a win over London Irish at Welford Road but they were far from impressive and this looks like being the first time for 13 years that they haven’t made the play-offs in the Premiership.
They’re now in the chasing pack behind Exeter, Saracens and Wasps as a general rule when everyone is fit and that’s not where Leicester should be. That is all about recruitment and until they rectify that they are going to find it difficult.
I think this break for Europe and the Anglo Welsh Cup will be good for Leicester as they look to find some form but they are going to have issues during the Six Nations because they’ve spent a lot of money on George Ford and his brother, who is his back-up, isn’t a starting Premiership number 10.
A quick glance at the halfbacks illustrates perfectly the mistakes Leicester have made with recruitment. Without Dan Robson and Danny Cipriani, Wasps have Joe Simpson and Jimmy Gopperth. Without Richard Wigglesworth and Owen Farrell, Saracens have Ben Spencer and Alex Lozowski. Sam Harrison and Joe Ford don’t measure up to that and it’ll be a struggle without Ben Youngs, George Ford, Jonny May and Dan Cole.
When you look at the fixtures, Leicester have to go away to Gloucester, Saracens and Worcester during the Six Nations and they’ll only have five games left to put things right when they get their stars back after the tournament, so I think they’re in real trouble in terms of making the top four.
I know they’ve been looking at playing Matt Toomua at fly half if they can get him a bit of game time but the next few weeks is huge for the Tigers, even though they are as good as out of Europe, in terms of determining the best combinations and finding some form.
It hasn’t been a happy few months in the East Midlands with Leicester’s great rivals Northampton losing 11 straight game in the Premiership and Europe but they finally ended that dismal run with victory over Gloucester at the weekend.
Saints have been through a lot over the past few months, a lot of mud has been slung at them and rightly so but this is more than just a monkey off their back, it’s a big hairy gorilla that’s climbed down from there.
Tom Wood said it felt like winning the league at the end and that just shows you the pressure that’s been on them day in, day out when you’re going into the club and everyone’s talking about how bad you are on the outside.
He said he was a bit reluctant to do a lap of honour but that was more to thank the fans for sticking with them and I think that’s right because those Northampton supporters have stuck with the team through thick and thin and it’s been just thin for the past few months.
They did perhaps get a bit lucky towards the end with some of the decisions but I think they deserve a bit of luck after what they’ve been through.
Alan Gaffney has still got a hell of a job on but to get that win in his first game will make a massive difference to the atmosphere and when a new voice comes in sometimes you work that little bit harder, you get off the deck a bit quicker and are a bit hungrier because you want to impress.
It probably shouldn’t do but a new boss coming in does change the mentality of some players and it clearly has at Saints.
Gaffney has come in and set his sights on the highest possible target, which is the top four. Fans will be listening to that and thinking that even the top six is a tough ask from where they are and the way they’ve been playing but top level European rugby has to be a minimum requirement for a club the size of Northampton. Mathematically it’s possible to get into the top four and I like his optimism and ambition.
Gloucester will bounce back. They shouldn’t have lost that game and it was a bit surprising to see Willi Heinz come out after the match and question the effort of some of his team-mates but that is a sign of the way the culture has changed at the club already under Johan Ackermann.
They’re no longer happy getting a losing bonus point at Franklin’s Gardens and they expected to win. I remember they went there on the first day of the season three years ago and lost 53-6 but they’re now in the top four and that’s a rallying call to say that those are games they need to be winning if they want to be there at the end of the season.
I was at the Ricoh Arena to round off the Premiership weekend and injuries played a huge part in proceedings but Saracens had all their big guns back and look well and truly back to their best after their own run of seven straight defeats in all competitions.
Wasps were missing Nathan Hughes, Joe Launchbury, Elliot Daly, Jimmy Gopperth, Kyle Eastmond and more and they ended up with Guy Armitage in the centres with Rob Miller, who has never played there in his life.
In contrast, that was Saracens’ first choice team with the exception of Liam Williams being out and Jamie George being left on the bench and it really showed. Maro Itoje didn’t have a massive game but Billy Vunipola was immense and their presence lifts the team and gets an extra 10 to 15 per cent out of those around them.
They’ve ridden out the storm after losing those seven straight games in November and December and have now beaten both Leicester and Wasps away from home. There’s still a long way to go but they’re certainly favourites to finish ahead of Wasps in the top two now.
Dai Young didn’t use injuries as an excuse and it was great to hear his interview after the game where he admitted that they were beaten by the better team and that was good for the integrity of the sport and the spirit of the game.
It was a damn good performance by Saracens and they looked every bit the European champions that they are but hopefully Wasps can get some bodies back and have another crack at them later in the season.
Comments on RugbyPass
Awesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
5 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
5 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
5 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
30 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
2 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
30 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
30 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
30 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
30 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
30 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
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