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'Call me crazy' - Andy Goode predicts Premiership top four
Pre-season predictions can make you look foolish and there’ll be people queuing up to call me crazy but I think Northampton will make the Premiership play-offs this season.
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They might have finished ninth last time around, lost 14 games in the league alone and shipped over 50 points four times in all competitions but the whole environment had become stale and there are still quite a few players at the club who were there when they finished top of the table in 2015 and won the title the year before that.
I think Ben Franks will offer a lot more than he did at London Irish, Haskell will be a big influence, Taqele Naiyaravoro is an absolute monster on the wing and the biggest addition of all is obviously at fly half.
Saints have now got a top class number 10 and if they can get him on the pitch often enough, that make the world of difference.
The signings will all provide a boost but there’s also Heinrich Brussow, who hardly played for them in his first season, and Dylan Hartley will be almost like a new signing because he’s hardly played for them recently and should have the motivation of leading his club to success in order to regain the England armband ahead of the World Cup.
It isn’t the new players that will make the biggest difference, though, it’s the change at the top. Chris Boyd is a brilliant coach and a new environment and fresh ideas will make a huge difference at Franklin’s Gardens, while the addition of Sam Vesty underneath him shouldn’t be underestimated either.
Northampton Saints
Ins: Dom Barrow (Leicester Tigers), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Charlie Davies(Dragons), Will Davis (Ealing Trailfinders), Ben Franks (London Irish), Joe Gray (Harlequins), James Haskell (Wasps), Andrew Kellaway, Taqele Naiyaravoro(both Waratahs), Andy Symons (Gloucester) and Matt Worley (Racing 92)
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Outs: Will Allman (released), Matt Beesley (Ealing Trailfinders), Kieran Brookes(Wasps), Charlie Clare (Bedford Blues), Christian Day (retired), Jamie Elliott (Bedford Blues), Juan Pablo Estelles (Rosario), Ben Foden (Rugby United New York), Nic Groom (Lions), Rob Horne (retired), Tom Kessell (Coventry), Campese Ma’afu (Leicester Tigers), Stephen Myler (London Irish), George North(Ospreys), Ben Nutley (Coventry), Jordan Onojaife (Ealing Trailfinders), Michael Paterson (released) and Tom Stephenson (London Irish)
Picking Northampton to finish fourth might seem like a radical prediction but I can’t see there being any changes at all in the positions above that.
Exeter, Saracens and Wasps have finished as the top three teams in the Premiership for three straight seasons now and have finished clear of the rest by at least seven points in every one of those campaigns, so there’s no reason to think that they won’t be the standout trio again.
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I think they’ll finish in the same order as last season as well with the Chiefs top of the pile once more. They will get hit with a few more international call-ups this year but the way they operate and their consistency across key periods during the international windows makes them favourites for me.
Sandy Park is a brutal place for other teams to go and their away form was among the best in the league last season as well.
Alex Cuthbert is the only new face and they have lost some experience in the form of Julian Salvi, Kai Horstmann, Will Chudley and especially Thomas Waldrom but none of those players were first choice last season so I don’t see them being any weaker this time around.
Injuries will play a massive part as always and if Exeter are hit worse than their rivals, then their consistency will obviously be tested but the squad ethos and way they play does mean that unheralded players have tended to fill in and step up to the plate in a way that other clubs must be envious of. They have 30 players who can all play at a similar level.
That doesn’t mean they’ll be lifting the trophy aloft in May because it’s about peaking at the climax of the campaign and they were completely outplayed and outmuscled in the final a few months ago but it does make them favourites to finish top.
Exeter Chiefs
Ins: Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues)
Outs: Will Chudley (Bath), Harrison Cully (Brixham RFC), Ed Holmes (Bristol Bears), Kai Horstmann (retired), Shaun Malton (Bristol Bears), Carl Rimmer (retired), Julian Salvi (retired) and Thomas Waldrom (Wellington Lions)
Saracens have the superstars but it’s difficult for them to finish top of the pile when for so much of the campaign they’re missing the likes of the Vunipolas, Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Jamie George, Alex Lozowski and more, with Michael Rhodes added to that list as well this season.
Farrell and Lozowski could both be away for large chunks of time with England, while Joe Simmonds and Gareth Steenson are unlikely to be.
So, it’s hard to back Sarries to finish as number one seeds but there’s no doubt that they’ll be in the play-offs and the international quality at their disposal definitely makes them favourites to retain their title.
Saracens
Ins: Viliami Hakalo (Nottingham), Alex Lewington (London Irish), David Strettle (Clermont) and Tom Woolstencroft (London Irish)
Outs: Schalk Brits (retired), Danny Cutmore (Cornish Pirates), Nathan Earle(Harlequins), Mike Ellery (England 7s), Mark Flanagan (Bedford Blues), Matt Hankin (retired), Kieran Longbottom (Western Force), Tadgh McElroy (Bedford Blues, loan), Jack Nay (Bedford Blues, loan) and Chris Wyles (retired)
Losing Jimmy Gopperth to a long-term injury is a massive blow to Wasps because it puts a lot of pressure on Lima Sopoaga to settle and hit the ground running and Billy Searle to step up as well.
It’s not an easy thing to do to come from the Southern Hemisphere to a very different league and fit in straightaway, especially as a playmaker, but he has probably been the second best number 10 in the world at times recently.
He can’t be drip fed in now because of Gopperth’s injury and he’ll be under the microscope from the off but Brad Shields will make a big difference as well and I see Wasps finishing third again.
Danny Cipriani and James Haskell have both played huge roles at the club but they have been replaced by star names and Nizaam Carr has returned as well after making a major impact in his short spell in Coventry last season, so on paper the squad looks stronger.
Wasps
Ins: Joe Atkinson (London Scottish), Kieran Brookes (Northampton Saints), Nizaam Carr (Stormers), Ambrose Curtis (Manawatu), Antonio ‘TJ’ Harris (Academy), Michael Le Bourgeois (Bedford Blues), Charlie Matthews (Harlequins), Ben Morris (Nottingham), Ross Neal (London Scottish), Billy Searle (Bristol Bears), Brad Shields (Hurricanes), Lima Sopoaga (Highlanders), Will Stuart (Academy), Tom West (Academy) and Zurab Zhvania (Stade Francais)
Outs: Guy Armitage (Ealing Trailfinders), Danny Cipriani (Gloucester), Paul Doran-Jones (released), Kyle Eastmond (Leicester Tigers), James Haskell (Northampton Saints), Sam Jones (retired), Alex Lundberg (Ealing Trailfinders), Brendan Macken (released), Marty Moore (Ulster), Will Owen (Nottingham), Matt Symons (Harlequins) and Guy Thompson (Leicester Tigers)
They’re at the top for different reasons but a combination of coaching, culture, style of play and star quality sets Exeter, Saracens and Wasps apart from the rest and I don’t see that changing this season.
Chris Boyd has the capacity to sprinkle a bit of that similar stardust on Saints this season and call me crazy but I believe they’re going to be the best of the rest.
Comments on RugbyPass
Leinster are going to win the world cup.
11 Go to commentsSuper Rugby desperately needs to lose at least 2, but up to 4 teams. Rebels quietly going bankrupt would have made that a bit easier. Teams like the Rebels and Force serve only to weaken Australian Rugby and Super Rugby more widely. In 13 years in the comp the Rebels are yet to win more games than they lose in a season, have never finished in the top half of the competition, and have come dead last a number of times. The Western Force, barring a brief stint of mediocrity under John Mitchell from 2007-2009 have been even worse. Sadly it’s hard to see a future for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby. Likewise I think the writing is on the wall for the Highlanders, it’s hard to see how NZ rugby can continue to support 5 SR teams, and population distribution suggests one team in the south island would make the most sense.
41 Go to commentsNice that Connor Evans is happy to stay on here, that JD Schikerling is returning and Steven Kitshoff. Dobbo is careful to bring back just anybody but having a new financial lease of life, it has made the Stormers a more attractive club. On top of being good quality, having the financial backing helps a lot
1 Go to commentsEngland-qualified too, I believe.
1 Go to commentsThis might turn out to be emblematic of a real issue in Irish rugby. Ireland have one of the best -if not the best - senior sides in the world, and one of the best under 20s sides as well, but don’t seem to be giving graduating under20s players many opportunities to break through into URC starting lineups. There is a risk that a lot of the junior talent they are developing will either be wasted, or lost to other nations.
1 Go to commentsYou ask good questions, Nick. The group who have put together the proposal to play out of Tarneit and participate in the growing of the ground’s capacity are not a bunch of white knights who have been dragged in post-crisis; they were around whilst the Rebels accummulated $23m in debt. Why do we come up with ideas that might make the franchise affordable after it’s broke and not when it might have prevented the trainwreck this offseason was? As for Gordon/Kellaway v Lolesio/Wright, they are both good options. I think the former are better rugby players but the goal kicking of Noah may be decisive when Schmiddy makes his choices. I know Harry Jones has the hots for Edmed but I think it’s one of his few poor choices and he and Jorgensen aren’t close to the other pairs. By coincidence, the wife and I went into town over the weekend to watch Brian Cox and Patricia Clarkson in Long Day’s Journey into Night. Beautifully acted but it was 3.5 hours in the chair and very hard work. Like the Rebels, there were only small bursts of joy to go with a lot of bad news and a depressing story line. In the end, I was hoping it would end and I could give my sore butt a break. Again, familiar.
41 Go to commentsGood decision, very good player but not international quality. But so was Jamison Gibson Park …..
3 Go to commentsLoose forwards always look good going forward and winning. It’s the same loose forwards for the Crusaders and the Canes this year as last year. Too much of the shiny new things getting noticed here while older consistent ones getting bagged. It’s early days. Calm the farm.
6 Go to commentsThanks Nick, and on the money. We tend to be apathetic until something REALLY BAD happens, then we aren't! At least this applies to the Reb players and coach, if not the spectators. They seem to be getting very quick ball at times. Have they altered something, or is it just all of the skills coming together at the right time? It seems almost the opposite of the Reds, who started the season with quick ball, but haven't been showing that in the last 3 losing games. Is it attitude (McDermott hasn't looked “right” to me for 3 weeks), or something else?
41 Go to commentsGood summary. As said, Sevu Reece has been electrifying for the Crusaders. Great try and he has been everywhere. Amazing he is now equal with Caleb Ralph , club record of 52 tries for the Crusaders. That record beckons. Good to see Dallas McLeod getting regular starts at last. A big few weeks are ahead.
6 Go to commentsGood article/interview.As was said Christian Lio-Willie was barnstorming when he came on for the Crusaders. What happened at the end, self-explanatory.Captain fantastic Scott Barrett is due back soon as well, once they are back from Aussie. Great to see Ethan Blackadder back last week.
1 Go to commentsYou must have been watching one team, Andrew - and even then you missed the brightest star in the Chiefs pack - Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 2 turnovers, genuine line-out presence and grunt around the field, and the soft hands of a back.
6 Go to commentsHaha what a crock of sh!t these headlines are. Moorby’s best year was that first. Still doesn’t seem to have the same game about him as when he was fresh but has bounced back well this season to be playing consistent tight accurate footy
3 Go to commentsIt’s even dumber than Bernard Foley not kicking the penalty to touch in the Melbourne Bledisloe in 2022.
3 Go to commentsYes, they are traveling well but it’s early days. The Chiefs were in front with 20 to go while they snatched a last minute win v the Reds. Keep calm.
1 Go to commentsThe failure of the Irish system / rugby playing style to produce their own backs has them looking elsewhere for innovation and flair - not that Jordie has much flair. He’s a converted fullback. The Canes have plenty of other younger options.
11 Go to comments1.Watch Wallace Sititi be the wild card AB. A genuine full time no 8 2. Luke J like Sotutu has not delivered. 3. Chiefs have all the right cattle but badly miss the leadership of Webber. LJ is about as unconvincing as Sam Cane when under the pump. They had the winning of that game in the second half then fell apart.
6 Go to commentsYes the Rebels are showing signs of life because they are literally playing for their live -lihoods and thanks to their Australian attack coach. However they are still playing an essentially dull boring south african style for the rest of the time. And Geoff Parling must be the most useless lineout coach ever. Worse than Steve Hansen even. Interestingly we are starting to see more cheap shots and attempts to get away with cheating by Australian players, now they are being influenced by Joe Schmidt. It was exactly the same when Rennie started out as Wallaby coach and thru his tenure. Trying to teach Australians to play like kiwis doesn’t work, as the last 20 years has conclusively demonstrated. Especially when we are not as good at it as kiwis. Which of course is the whole idea …..
41 Go to commentsGreat signing, not sure where he’ll fit in though. As for him ‘playing alongside RG Snyman, that’s highly debatable given the likelyhood that the latter will spend most of the season on sick leave.
11 Go to commentsWowee!
11 Go to comments