Pre-match analysis - Italy vs Wales
Wales travel to Rome to face Italy boasting a very different look to the team that walked out at the Stade de France on the opening night of the 2019 Six Nations.
Coach Warren Gatland has rung the changes – 10 personnel and one positional – but not because of his side’s woeful first-half showing in Paris.
Instead of returning to Cardiff following their 24-19 comeback win over France, Wales have spent the week training on the Cote d’Azur. Gatland wanted to replicate the kind of turnaround the squad will face at the Rugby World Cup in September and has therefore shuffled his pack, providing opportunities for fringe players to book their flights to Japan.
TEAM NEWS 🏴 @JonFoxDavies will lead Wales for the first time against @Federugby this Saturday. #ITAvWAL
🔴 Capteiniaeth am y tro gyntaf i'r gŵr o'r gorllewin ar gap rhif 70 am y gêm @SixNationsRugby.#HWFN #ForTheJersey pic.twitter.com/h3aa0Qyb2A
— Welsh Rugby Union 🏴 (@WelshRugbyUnion) February 7, 2019
Following a comprehensive defeat to Scotland in Edinburgh in week one, Italy will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. Can they cause an upset and secure a first win over Wales since Gatland took charge 11 years ago?
Coaches
Italy coach Conor O’Shea insisted in the wake of defeat at Murrayfield last weekend that his side could find the level required to beat Wales on Saturday. “[It is] a fight not many people think we can win,” he said, “but we will.”
O’Shea was forced to field questions about his future at last month’s Six Nations launch following newspaper reports in France that the Italian Rugby Federation (FIR) were sounding out potential successors to the Irishman.
In his two-and-half years in charge, South Africa, Georgia, Fiji and Japan have all been beaten but victories have been few and far between. In two matches against Wales under O’Shea, Italy have lost both by an aggregate score of 71-21.
It is a measure of how confident his opposite number feels heading into the match that he has made so many changes to the team that came from behind to beat France in Paris.
🔵 #Italrugby: annunciati i titolari in campo sabato all’Olimpico per #ITAvWAL, secondo appuntamento del @SixNationsRugby 2019 ➡ https://t.co/w5dGkNxx9q#insieme #rugbypassioneitaliana @SeiNazioniRugby pic.twitter.com/XUrfBBCw7l
— Italrugby (@Federugby) February 7, 2019
Of course, Gatland’s decision to leave Alun Wyn Jones, Ross Moriarty and Gareth Davies on the bench – and Ken Owens, Justin Tipuric and George North in the stands – highlights the disparity in resources available to each coach.
Turning the Azzurri into a competitive force in the Six Nations is something that will take years. O’Shea is all too aware of that, but he will hope his players can start in Rome on Saturday where they left off at Murrayfield.
The players
Leonardo Ghiraldini (69) vs Elliot Dee (67)
With Ken Owens given a week off following his exertions in Paris, Dee has an opportunity to rubber-stamp his standing as Wales’ number two hooker. Opposite him on Saturday is Ghiraldini, a centurion who will embody the hosts’ physical approach. According to the RPI, Dee has a greater influence on games (85-69) and is a better scrummager (69-65) while providing a jackal threat (70-29) that Ghiraldini, 10 years his senior, does not.
Sergio Parisse (68) vs Josh Navidi (79)
Gatland has decided to take a look at Navidi at number eight in Rome, even though the Wales back row is more comfortable on the side of the scrum than at the base of it. It’s a position the Cardiff player has filled in the past and his versatility could yet prove vital at the World Cup. Navidi, though, does not bring the physicality of Moriarty, Taulupe Faletau or Seb Davies to the role and that is something Parisse and Italy will hope to exploit. Although now 35, Parisse remains a carrying threat and a very tough opponent for a non-specialist number eight.
Tommaso Allan (60) vs Dan Biggar (79)
It should be something of a clash of styles at 10 in the Stadio Olimpico. Allan has matured since he was first handed the keys to the Azzurri attack as a 20-year-old, but question marks remain at Test level – especially concerning his goal kicking. No such worries surround Biggar, who in his new role as a ‘finisher’ for Wales, has come off the bench to kick his country to victory over Australia, South Africa and France in recent months. Selected to start on Saturday he should be relied upon to keep Wales playing in the right areas.
Michele Campagnaro (61) vs Jonathan Davies (76)
It’s a big weekend for Scarlets centre Davies, who takes the captaincy on his 70th Wales appearance. Injuries ahead of this season have impacted on Davies’ RPI rating but according to the rankings he has more of an impact on games than Campagnaro, with his influence rating of 75 four more than his opposite number. Campagnaro’s ability to play on the wing perhaps accounts for his attack score of 82, which is 11 more than Davies. At his best the Welshman is one of the best centres in the world, and he could well make a mockery of his ranking on Saturday.
Key battlegrounds
The breakdown is such a key facet of Wales’ game and despite all the changes, Gatland has once again picked a team that will be confident of dominating that area.
Navidi, Aaron Wainwright and Thomas Young (combined jackal RPI – 244) are all adept over the ball In a mobile back row and will keep Parisse, Sebastian Negri and Braam Steyn incredibly busy.
Negri made a mammoth 18 tackles at Murrayfield last weekend, and if Italy are going to get anything out of this contest then he will need to do similar again.
There will be no let-up when the Azzurri have the ball, though, with the Welsh back row having a combined tackle turnover RPI of 255.
Should Wales secure front-foot ball then they will hope Biggar can deliver a composed performance at 10. His half-back partner in Rome will be Aled Davies, who in the eyes of the RPI, is more than a safe pair of hands.
He has an influence rank of 83, pass completion of 87 and 84 for territorial kick meters. Parisse and co must hound and harass Davies and Biggar if Wales are to be upset.
Conclusion
Wales were rocked during the first-half in Paris last Friday, but it says a lot about the resolve the squad possesses that they were able to rebound from such an abject 40-minute display. They have been here before and that performance will have been parked during the warm-weather training week in Nice.
Gatland has rung the changes for Rome but there are no worries about those players coming in, such is the strength of the group. Instead a chance to put a hand up for World Cup selection should galvanise those who aren’t regulars. If it doesn’t then Jones, Moriarty, Davies, Gareth Anscombe and Hallam Amos are all ready and waiting on the bench.
Italy will want to pick up where they left off in Edinburgh but that three-try salvo came when their hosts were down to 14 men and had a bonus-point already tucked safely into their back pocket.
Expect the Azzurri to make life difficult for Wales in the first half, but the visitors will back their superior fitness and skill set to show as the match wears on.
Verdict: Wales to win with a bonus point
Comments on RugbyPass
Ben Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
19 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
7 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
19 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
19 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
19 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
86 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
9 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
19 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to comments