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Expect Wales to dominate, and All Blacks have a chance – Adam Jones
Test rugby in the northern hemisphere is pretty strong and I’m predicting an all-European line-up for the Rugby World Cup semi-finals. That’s a shift compared to what has happened before, but you wouldn’t be overly surprised either to see all four quarter-finals go the other way and we end up with an all-southern hemisphere last-four.
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That said, I’m going for Wales by 10 points on Saturday against Argentina. Before, when you talked about beating the Pumas, it was about matching them in the scrum but I don’t know if their scrum is what it used to be back in the day with the Ledesmas, the Hasans, the Ronceros, the Scelzos, and the Albacetes.
It’s not that anymore and I’d imagine if Wales don’t dominate in the scrum, they will be disappointed. I fancy Wales to get after it and beat them up front.
Putting two sevens in will also slow Argentina down and pressure the 10, keeping the ball away from Mateo Carreras, who is a pretty special player. History backs Argentina around the forward stuff but I can see Wales dominating.
Starting two sevens isn’t a bad thing. It will create a lot of ball pressure. Tommy Reffell and Jac Morgan are fantastic players. Reffell is one of the standout sevens in the Premiership, just behind our seven Will Evans at Harlequins in turnovers, and then Morgan has been brilliant.
Taulupe Faletau is a massive loss, though. Welsh fans shouldn’t underestimate how big a loss he is going to be, especially his experience as this was his fourth World Cup. He was in New Zealand in 2011 as a kid and was brilliant then, so it just shows his level of performance over his career.
There are massive shoes to fill there with him missing but Aaron Wainwright is a good operator, even though he has a different type of delivery.
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Dan Biggar is also back at out-half. He is similar to the Farrells and the Sextons of this world, very demanding of the players around him and he has always been the same. He was like that as an 18-year-old, basically bossing the Welsh front five and a couple of All Blacks in the Ospreys team as a teenager.
Now, he is emotional and he got a lot of flak for how he was against Fiji, but that’s him. If you knew him, the boys wouldn’t have been upset. From the outside, it looked a lot worse but the boys took it in their stride and Biggar has been brilliant.
I thought Gareth Anscombe was excellent as well in the Australia game and Sam Costelow last time out. There is a lot of depth there but Biggar, with Justin Tipuric, Ken Owens, and Alun Wyn Jones now gone, is the emotional heartbeat of this Wales team and I’d imagine he will be leading.
Morgan is a little bit quieter in his leadership and does all his talking on the field, but Biggar would be the second in command, bossing everyone around and into positions to win the game. He never really screamed at me, though. He was aware of the many penalties I used to win for him in the scrum that he would be able to kick, so he never said much to me.
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Wales have been brilliant this World Cup. The way they are going, the way they are talking, they fancy a crack at winning it, which is brilliant to see as a Welshman. Brilliant, too, is the form of Louis Rees-Zammit.
He has been around a while now, has toured with the Lions, and has a good few Test caps, but he has stepped up to a different level at this World Cup. He’s had a documentary made about him so there is a bit of pressure – he has got to back that up. Anyone who has a documentary made about them, there is a bit of hype.
Why Dan Biggar, Wales' "emotional heartbeat", never lost his rag with Bomb…
– The Adam Jones Rugby World Cup column in association with Saxo. #RWC2023 #WALvARG #Wales pic.twitter.com/uCL5cnA9vS
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 14, 2023
But he has got a bit of a swagger. He is crazy fast and he isn’t just fast, he has got much more to his game, which is brilliant. He has been class and has made some big statements about wanting to be the best player in the world and he is going the right way about it.
It’s not quite as simple as getting the ball and scoring but he has certainly put his marker down as one of the top performers so far in the World Cup. I’m pleased for him.
I met him a few times at Gloucester when we played them and he’s a nice kid, really polite and respectful, and a lot bigger than I thought. He’s actually quite a big lad, so he has a bit of physicality about him too. He had really been doing great and that hopefully will carry on this weekend.
Switching to Ireland versus the All Blacks, you imagine there are millions and millions of kids around the world dying to watch it. Everyone has kind of written the All Blacks off a little bit.
They have been good the last few games, don’t get me wrong, but they are not seen as the power they were and Ireland is this new all-singing, all-dancing juggernaut which pressurises teams both in attack and defence.
Ireland are favourites, but it is going to be close and it’s not a foregone conclusion. If New Zealand match Ireland’s maul, slow down Ireland’s ball, avoid turnovers and get quick ball even though Ireland have so many jackal threats and are unbelievably good at slowing ball, New Zealand have got a chance.
If anybody knows how to break this Irish defence down it is the All Blacks and under Joe Schmidt, they might have a little few extra clues. I’m sure they are going to be pretty smart about how they attack. Ireland are missing James Ryan but Iain Henderson is pretty good.
I played against him when he was a young fella and he could get his arms into rucks, into mauls to slow the ball down. He was taught by some old-fashioned Ulster locks over the years and knows how to slow the game down. You have also got Josh van der Flier, Andrew Porter, all these players. There are a phenomenal defensive unit at the moment with Simon Easterby as their defence coach.
On the other side of the ball, I can’t imagine New Zealand are going to rush defend the Irish because if they do that, Ireland are 10 metres over the gain line and have got quick ball. Scott McLeod is the All Blacks defence coach and it’s a massive, massive game on him. He will be under a lot of pressure on how to stem this Irish attack. I’d like to say a draw, but I’ll go Ireland by three.
- This Rugby World Cup guest column is brought to you in association with the renewed partnership between Harlequins and official trading partner Saxo, a global leader in online investing, for the 2023/2024 Gallagher Premiership season;
- Aside from Wales legend and Harlequins coach Adam Jones, ex-Ireland hooker-turned-coach Jerry Flannery and England lock Joe Launchbury will also be writing columns over the course of the tournament.
Comments on RugbyPass
The article alludes to the fact that this isn’t about picking a captain. But picking a great captain. So who would make for a great All Black captain - not just an obvious or safe shoo-in? I’m not sure Ardie’s the guy and Barret doesn’t stand out either.
20 Go to commentsI guess we may all agree on the fact, that the ABs and Boks are the two in contest for No 1 in rugby history (the triple-A sort of) …. the Wallabies, England and France are the next tier, with Ireland being the new kid in town (AA) …. in my view it makes little sense creating imaginary competitions (unless you have too much time to waste)
44 Go to commentsWhat a joke. Total joke and the pundits commentating, all of whom know a bit about the game, could barely disguise their contempt. Reaching for the card then pulling back when he realised a red card would carry further match suspensions is simply not his decision to make. A clear and obvious influence on the outcome of this match and indeed, the championship path.
4 Go to commentsI like the idea, in NZ the Ranfurly Shield and NPC coexist, both having their own bragging rights. The World Cup would be the pinnacle, but the competition and travels of these trophies would be interesting.
44 Go to commentsDon’t worry Sonny bill Williams leave that awkward situation about the curfew in the pass whoever it was it doesn’t matter its no big deal we back our All Blacks through the storm and the thunder until we see the Sun light again.
42 Go to commentsWho listens to this retard? He was a massive liability as a player but obviously a media sensation
42 Go to commentsI’m not surprised by such ‘virtue signalling’ by Sonny Boy. Butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth. He’s such a pious Islamic muppet, imo.
42 Go to commentsI’ve actually never heard of the guy (then I don’t watch League as it is boring). But if he is good enough.. then good luck to him. If not, well, he can always return to league.
2 Go to commentsIt is pretty clear that by almost any measure that NZ are a more successful rugby nation than South Africa. Quite aside from the distasteful events during the last RWC final. NZ lead SA in all significant measurements.
44 Go to commentsDickson went to his pocket for a card, saw who it was, changed his mind and spoke at length to TMO. One angle clearly shows Care diving over a Saints player to kill the ball. 1st yellow, reason given for not Red was player was falling backwards. He was only falling backwards after contact with Lawes. Graham try should have stood. Mitchell did not have both hands on the ball, ball went forward from a Saints boot dragging over it. 2 intentional knock-on's. One of which had an overlap on the outside. If Quins are happy to win by intentional foul play, then it does not say much for them. Would appear to be a bad day for Karl Dickson, also for the RFU in appointing a Ref who spent 8 years as a player at one of the clubs.
4 Go to commentsLet’s not forget about Ardie Savea just yet.
7 Go to commentsThe URC and the Euro Championscup can’t run at the same time, basically dilutes both competitions.
2 Go to comments“While Sotutu should start at No.8 for the All Blacks against England, but it’s only in that arena that he can prove just how good he really is.” And that my friends is where simply hasnt shone despite multiple opportunities. Even in this performance you can see what did him in in the test arena..he almost always still runs at the opposition almost ramrod upright making him easier to stop than it should be.
7 Go to commentsShould have been 0-0 and a message from SR CEO to both teams - “don’t worry about turning up next year”.
4 Go to commentsGreat work Owen Franks. A great of this team, scoring his first try for the Crusaders since 2010.He was beaming, justifiably. A fine win, he and the rest did the job up front.
1 Go to commentsDanny Care. Lang in die tand.
1 Go to commentsBig empty stadium does nothing for atmosphere but munster are playing well with solid performance
1 Go to commentsYes, Fiji can win the World Cup! With that belief plus their christian faith🙏 and hard work it is achievable. Great article. Ian Duncan Fiji resident 1981-84
2 Go to commentsInteresting comments about Touch. England’s hosting the Touch World Cup this year and the numbers have exploded since their last World Cup in 2019, something like 70% more teams and 40 nations taking part. And England Touch have made a big thing about how many universities are in their BUCS University Touch Championship as well as Sport England membership. Can only see this growing even more domestically as more people become aware of it
10 Go to comments“Cortez Ratima is light years ahead of anyone on current form, while TJ Perenara has also skyrocketed into contention following the unfortunate injury to the talented Cam Roigard.” At last some sanity. Hitherto so many pundits have been wittering on about Finlay Christie to the point one wondered if they were observing a FC in a parallel universe where the FC they saw wasnt just the mediocre Shayne Philpott project of Fosters hapless AB reign in the real world. Ratima, Perenara and Fakatava are the ONLY logical 9s for Razor now Roigard is crocked.
4 Go to comments