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Africa 1 Pre-Season Odds: The Slaughter of the Sunwolves
Our stats guru Paul Neazor predicts who will flourish and who will flounder in the Africa 1 conference this Super Rugby season.
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This year’s Super Rugby is confusing at the best of times. There are two Groups, including one called ‘Africa’ that features teams from Asia and South America, an extremely convoluted schedule, a new team that’s pretty much the Argentinian national team, a Japanese side that hosts its home games in Singapore, and an inexplicable lack of live animal mascots.
A full explainer is here, but to get your bearings on the competition, the main thing to focus on is the conferences. There are four of them – Australia, New Zealand, Africa 1, and Africa 2 – and the winner of each will be rewarded with home field advantage in the quarter-finals. For our pre-season odds, we decided to rank the teams in those conferences by how good they’re going to be, and where they’re likely to end up at the end of the season.
Cheetahs: TAB odds $101 to win competition, equal 15th favourite.
The odds on the Cheetahs may well shorten a bit with news that Handre Pollard is out for the season and the Bulls therefore lose their key playmaker, but they won’t shorten much and the Bloemfontein mob are still long shots to win the overall title. Being pillaged over the off-season – again – means they face the annual rebuild with fewer resources than most, and almost all the key strike players have now left. I wouldn’t underrate the Cheetahs on a game by game basis – I’m picking they’ll upset one or two more fancied teams – but they’re not in the hunt for overall honours.
After 17 weeks the Cheetahs will be: Wondering who they’ll lose in this off-season. They always lose half a team between seasons
Stormers: TAB odds $10 to win competition, 7th favourite.
The Stormers, like most of the South African sides, suffered a large post-World Cup exodus and while they’ve managed to sign some good players from within the country there are still gaps, although they’re nowhere near as big as some teams have to cover. More than any other team, the Stormers may be favoured by the new bonus point regulations – remember, this is the team that topped the regular season log a couple of years back without a single try-scoring bonus point – as they normally defend a lot better than they attack. They should be a good shot at topping their section, although they do have the tougher of the two South African pools, but beyond that … I don’t think so. Given that they’ve had several recent playoff meltdowns at home, the press will probably beat them in the quarters before their opponent even has a chance.
After 17 weeks the Stormers will be: In the playoffs because they’re the best team in the weakest group
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Sunwolves: TAB odds $501 to win competition, rank outsider.
Remarkably short at 500-1, the Sunwolves are so clearly a patch-together job that there must be concerns for their survival. Unwanted by Japanese club owners, ignored by Brave Blossom test players, playing three home matches in Singapore to make the South Africans happy, appointing a coach only weeks before the season began, filling out a playing roster with ‘Who’s he?’ and ‘Never was’ names and with no structured pre-season behind them, the Sunwolves are the team everyone wants to play this season. I think they may be the first team to yak up a century in Super Rugby at some stage, and an 0-15 final record wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. Their odds really should have as many zeroes as an old Zimbabwean banknote, and they have as much chance of success.
After 17 weeks the Sunwolves will be: Glad it’s over
Bulls: TAB odds $18 to win competition, 11th favourite.
That the Bulls are so short despite a moderate 2015 season and a whopping exodus of talent, mainly to Europe, in the off-season says a lot for the strength of their conference. This Bulls team is nothing like the side that won three titles a few years back; it lacks the power up front and now, with Handre Pollard on the bank for the year, lacks punch in the backs. I suspect news of the seriousness of Pollard’s injury might change the odds in this conference a little, as he was the single best player in it. Nobody expects the Bulls to do much this season – and that probably includes their die-hard crazy fans as well – but winning the conference gives them a big hand up and playoff games at Loftus are notoriously hard to win. Still, you take them at your own risk.
After 17 weeks the Bulls will be: Wishing Handre Pollard had been available. Without him the road will be too tough
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Comments on RugbyPass
The Springboks tried going down the road of only picking home-based players and it was an unmitigated disaster in 2016 and 2017. Picking overseas-based players has been one of the main reason the Boks have done so well since 2018, not only because of the quality Rassie could call on, but because of the knowledge and experience those players brought into camp from England, France and Japan. With some of the big names playing abroad it also gave younger players in SA the chance to break through at franchise level. Would we have seen the emergence of a Ruan Nortje if RG and Lood were still at the Bulls? Not so sure. I understand why Jake would want to block players leaving since his job depends on good results but it’s an approach that would take Bok rugby back to the bad old days and no South African wants to see that.
8 Go to commentsExeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
34 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
34 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
8 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
34 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
8 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
8 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
11 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
11 Go to comments